麦格理-全球-投资策略-正确、错误与回报：无罗盘巡航-2019.4.15-48页.pdf

Please refer to page 46 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website April 2019 Global EQUITIES MSCI AC World GDP Growth(market prices)vs EPS growth rates economies need to accelerate much higher than 3%Source:MSCI;FactSet;Macrobond;Macquarie Research,April 2019 MQ Global Quality Sustainable Growth Portfolio up 250bps YTD;14%since inception Source:MSCI;Bloomberg;Macquarie Research,April 2019 Inside Key recommendations and portfolios 2 The New Era is dawning fusing monetary&fiscal 3 Risk one:Liquidity up or down?5 Risk two:Doing too little dribs&drabs 11 Risk three:Doing too much free money for all 14 Risk four:Stabilizing at a wrong level 21 Investment Strategies navigating without a compass 26 Appendices 36 Analysts Macquarie Capital Limited Viktor Shvets +852 3922 3883 Perry Yeung +852 3922 4769 Rights,Wrongs&Returns Twilight zone.Navigating without a compass Key points Have we done enough to stabilize?Yes.Reflate?No.More has to be done.Investors are transiting through twilight from monetary to fiscal levers.Timing is uncertain.We stick with secular strengths in stocks&countries.Not enough to stabilize at levels compatible with asset prices As investors contemplate the rest of 19 and 20,the key question is whether pressures have truly abated&the extent of any likely reflation.Over the last three months all major CBs executed a sharp U-turn from normalization to support.At the same time,China has abandoned its ill-conceived de-leveraging to focus on supporting growth.The only remaining question is whether all of these actions are sufficient to justify current asset prices or whether more needs to be done.In the former case,a smooth goldilocks environment would prevail.In the latter,we need to brace for volatilities.It is a fork in the road,with no middle ground.Investors are today in an unchartered territory,with neither US consumers nor China yet willing to underwrite a much more robust reflation while CBs are trying to find the middle ground of being supportive but short of injecting fresh liquidity.Given that the world is labouring under a mountain of excess capital,are mere words and signs of CBs concerns sufficient to unfreeze capital and ensure its faster multiplication?Ditto for China-is lack of erosion of shadow banking and a contained rise in local government debt enough to stimulate global reflation?Indications thus far suggest no.Global liquidity is still eroding while reflationary momentum remains muted and hesitant.Equities(perpetual bulls),focus on a declining rates and a hope for growth while bonds(perpetual bears)expect disinflation.The two are not necessarily incompatible.Equities refuse to lower terminal values,even as they cut WACC.On the other hand,bond investors still harbour illusions that debts are real and that CBs/states face binding constraints.They are both akin to medieval sailors trying to find a shore without a compass.more must be done.Key Risk:too little first&then too much Our concern is not that we are heading into recession,but rather that growth rates might stabilize at levels incompatible with prevailing asset prices,leading to rising volatilities.If global growth stays at 3%(4Q18-2.8%),it would be unlikely to underwrite 20-21 EPSg rebound to 10%-15%clip implicit in current values.However,we equally maintain that the centre of gravity is already shifting to pro-cyclical policies.As elections reward extremes,we believe politics are likely to deliver more robust stimuli into 20-21 and these might prove to be more durable and mostly fiscally-led.Indeed,there is already a rising chorus of voices to support such a shift(e.g.MMT,post-Keynesians).It is just a matter of time.Thus investors are in a transition from CB bubbles to fiscal bubbles,the next likely stage in a three-decade journey of managing bubbles in order to safeguard real economies.We doubt that there are many other realistic options,and in our view,investors who worry that CBs and states are running out of tools are wrong.There is no limit,albeit at a cost of destroying whatever is left of private sector signals.While there are no good LT outcomes,there is also no need to expect an instant Armageddon.The key theme for the next 12 months:too little support to begin with but probably too much later,as we transit through the twilight from monetary levers to a fusion of monetary&fiscal policies.This will alter investment strategies,but for now,we are staying with secular strengths in stocks&markets.R=0.3236R=0.2378-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%World GDP Growth YoY(Mkt exchange rate)Global EPS Growth Rate(YoY)949910410911411904-Feb-1604-Apr-1604-Jun-1604-Aug-1604-Oct-1604-Dec-1604-Feb-1704-Apr-1704-Jun-1704-Aug-1704-Oct-1704-Dec-1704-Feb-1804-Apr-1804-Jun-1804-Aug-1804-Oct-1804-Dec-1804-Feb-1904-Apr-19Global Quality Sustainable Growth portfolio(rel to MSCI AC World,$TR basis)Macquarie Research Rights,Wrongs&Returns 15 April 2019 2 Key recommendations and portfolios Fig 1 MQ Global Quality/Stability Portfolio(April 2019)Fig 2 MQ Global Thematics Portfolio(April 2019)Source:Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:Macquarie Research,April 2019 Fig 3 MQ ASXJ Quality/Stability Portfolio(April 2019)Fig 4 MQ ASXJ Thematics Portfolio(April 2019)Source:Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:Macquarie Research,April 2019 Fig 5 MQ Japan Quality/Stability Portfolio(April 2019)Fig 6 MQ Asia ex JP country allocation tilts(%)Source:Macquarie Research,April 2019 Source:Macquarie Research,April 2019 TickerNameReco.CountryTickerNameReco.CountryMSFT USMicrosoft OPUNITED STATESSYK USStryker N/RUNITED STATESAMZN USAmazonOPUNITED STATESRMS FPHermes InternationalN/RFRANCEGOOGL US Alphabet AOPUNITED STATESADP USADP N/RUNITED STATESBABA USAlibaba Group HoldingOPCHINA6758 JPSony Neutral JAPAN700 HKTencent HoldingsOPHONG KONGHUVR INHindustan Unilever OPINDIAFB USFacebook AOPUNITED STATES9983 JPFAST RETAILINGN/RJAPANJNJ USJohnson&Johnson N/RUNITED STATESADS GRadidas OPGERMANYV USVisa AN/RUNITED STATESRTN USRaytheon CoN/RUNITED STATESNESN SWNestle N/RSWITZERLANDILMN USIllumina N/RUNITED STATES005930 KSSamsung Electronics OPSOUTH KOREANOW USServiceNow OPUNITED STATESINTC USIntelOPUNITED STATES6594 JPNIDEC Neutral JAPANCSCO USCisco SystemsOPUNITED STATES914 HKAnhui Conch Cement HOPHONG KONGMC FPLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis VuittonN/RFRANCEMSIL INMaruti Suzuki India OPINDIAORCL USOracleOPUNITED STATESMNST US Monster BeverageNeutral UNITED STATESLLY USEli LillyN/RUNITED STATESEA USElectronic Arts OPUNITED STATESADBE USAdobeN/RUNITED STATES8035 JPTokyo Electron OPJAPANCRM USsalesforce comOPUNITED STATES7741 JPHOYA OPJAPANAMGN USAmgen N/RUNITED STATESRACE IMFerrariN/RITALYNVDA USNVIDIA Neutral UNITED STATESHO FPThales N/RFRANCENKE USNIKE BOPUNITED STATESCAP FPCapgeminiN/RFRANCESIE GRSiemens N/RGERMANYLLL USL3 TechnologiesN/RUNITED STATESASML NAASML Holding N/RNETHERLANDS1093 HKCSPC Pharmaceutical GroupOPHONG KONG6861 JPKeyence Neutral JAPANUNTR IJUnited Tractors OPINDONESIABMY USBristol-Myers Squibb N/RUNITED STATESTickerNameReco.CountryTickerNameReco.Country2330 TTTaiwan Semicon MfgOPTAIWANLMT USLockheed Martin N/RUNITED STATESHON USHoneywell InternationalN/RUNITED STATES RTN USRaytheon CoN/RUNITED STATESNVDA USNVIDIA NeutralUNITED STATES 002415 CHHangzhou Hikvision AN/RCHINASIE GRSiemens N/RGERMANYNOC USNorthrop Grumman N/RUNITED STATESSYK USStryker N/RUNITED STATES HO FPThales N/RFRANCEISRG USIntuitive Surgical N/RUNITED STATES LLL USL3 TechnologiesN/RUNITED STATESABBN SWABBN/RSWITZERLANDESLT ITElbit Systems N/RISRAEL6954 JPFANUC UPJAPANGEO USGEO GroupN/RUNITED STATES6503 JPMitsubishi Electric OPJAPAN6506 JPYaskawa Electric OPJAPANTheme 5:Education&Skilling300124 CHShenzhen lnovance Tech N/RCHINAEDU USNew Oriental Education ADROPCHINA300024 CHSIASUN Robot&Automation AN/RCHINATAL USTAL Education Group ADRNeutralCHINAABBV USAbbVieN/RUNITED STATES UHS USUniversal Health Services BN/RUNITED STATESAMGN USAmgen N/RUNITED STATES SCI USService Corp IntlN/RUNITED STATESBIIB USBiogenN/RUNITED STATES 1448 HKFu Shou Yuan Intl Group N/RHONG KONGILMN USIllumina N/RUNITED STATESTheme 7:Disruptors&Facilitators700 HKTencent HoldingsOPHONG KONGAMZN USAmazonOPUNITED STATES7974 JPNintendo N/RJAPANGOOGL USAlphabet AOPUNITED STATESNTES USNetEase ADROPCHINABABA USAlibaba Group HoldingOPCHINAATVI USActivision BlizzardOPUNITED STATES FB USFacebook AOPUNITED STATES27 HKGalaxy EntertainmentOPHONG KONGCRM USsalesforce comOPUNITED STATESEA USElectronic Arts OPUNITED STATES BIDU USBaidu ADROPCHINAMGM USMGM ResortsOPUNITED STATESTheme 1:Replacing Humans:Robots,Industrial Automation&AITheme 4:Bullets and Prisons:Defense,Security,Prisons/CorrectionTheme 2:Augmenting Humans:Genome/Biotechnology/DNA sequencingTheme 6:Demographics:Funeral Parlours,Psychiatric CentresTheme 3:Opium of the people:Games,Casinos/Virtual RealityTickerNameReco.CountryBABA USAlibaba Group HoldingOPCHINA700 HKTencent HoldingsOPHONG KONG005930 KSSamsung Electronics OPSOUTH KOREA2330 TTTaiwan Semicon MfgOPTAIWANHUVR INHindustan Unilever OPINDIABIDU USBaidu ADROPCHINA002415 CHHangzhou Hikvision AN/RCHINA914 HKAnhui Conch Cement HOPHONG KONG27 HKGalaxy EntertainmentOPHONG KONGMSIL INMaruti Suzuki India OPINDIAHMSP IJPT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna OPINDONESIAHCLT INHCL Technologies OPINDIACOAL INCoal India N/RINDIA601888 CHChina Intl Travel Service AOPCHINA288 HKWH GroupOPHONG KONGNEST INNestle India OPINDIA669 HKTechtronic IndustriesOPHONG KONG1093 HKCSPC Pharmaceutical GroupOPHONG KONGBDMS TBBangkok Dusit Medical OPTHAILANDGCPL INGodrej Consumer Products OPINDIASTE SPSingapore Techs Eng OPSINGAPOREUNTR IJUnited Tractors OPINDONESIAHMPRO TBHome Product Center Neutral THAILANDSATS SPSATSOPSINGAPORETickerNameReco.CountryTickerNameReco.Country300124 CHShenzhen lnovance Tech N/RCHINA002415 CHHangzhou Hikvision AN/RCHINA300024 CHSIASUN Robot&Automation A N/RCHINA002236 CHZhejiang Dahua Technology AN/RCHINA1590 TTAirtac Intl GrpNeutralTAIWANSTE SPSingapore Techs Eng OPSINGAPORETheme 2:Asias High Technology nichesTheme 5:Education&Skilling2330 TTTaiwan Semicon MfgOPTAIWANEDU USNew Oriental Education ADROPCHINA000660 KSSK hynixOPSOUTH KOREATAL USTAL Education Group ADRNeutralCHINA002475 CHLuxshare Precision Ind AN/RCHINA981 HKSemiconductor Mfg IntlOPHONG KONGBDMS TBBangkok Dusit Medical OPTHAILAND300015 CHAier Eye Hospital Group AN/RCHINA700 HKTencent HoldingsOPHONG KONGMIKA IJMitra Keluarga KaryasehatN/RINDONESIANTES USNetEase ADROPCHINA1448 HKFu Shou Yuan Intl Group N/RHONG KONG27 HKGalaxy EntertainmentOPHONG KONGTheme 7:Disruptors&Facilitators002241 CHGoerTek AN/RCHINABABA USAlibaba Group HoldingOPCHINABIDU USBaidu ADROPCHINACTRP USC International ADROPCHINATheme 1:Replacing Humans:Robots,Industrial Automation&AITheme 4:Bullets and Prisons:Defense,Security,Prisons/Correction CentresTheme 6:Demographics:Funeral Parlours,Hospitals and Psychiatric CentresTheme 3:Opium of the people:Games,Casinos/Virtual RealityTickerNameReco.6758 JPSony Neutral9983 JPFAST RETAILINGN/R4063 JPShin-Etsu Chemical OP7974 JPNintendo N/R6981 JPMurata Manufacturing OP8035 JPTokyo Electron OP7741 JPHOYA OP8113 JPUnicharm OP2267 JPYakult Honsha OP6506 JPYaskawa Electric OP6857 JPAdvantest OP6268 JPNabtesco OP-3-2-10123ChinaIndiaKoreaTaiwanSingaporeHong KongMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandIndonesiaMacquarie Research Rights,Wrongs&Returns 15 April 2019 3 The New Era is dawning fusing monetary&fiscal Only thing we have to fear is fear itself,FDR Inaugural Address,1932 In the middle of the worst Depression on record,FDRs inaugural Presidential address urged people to go beyond hopelessness and as he argued convert retreat into advance.He went beyond that by placing the blame on the shoulders of bankers and private sector arguing that rulers of the exchange of mankinds goods have failedpractices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion,rejected by the hearts and minds of menthe money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilizationwe may now restore that temple to the ancient truthsthe measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.Although far more eloquent than Maxine Waters(Chairperson of the Financial Services Committee),the implications of todays speeches are not much different to FDRs address.While clearly they would never blame people and their representatives for creating an environment that encouraged money changers to act unscrupulously,as in 1932,todays capitalism is undergoing a major change.We firmly believe that investors are witnessing a transition from Central Bank(CB)and financialization bubbles to fiscal bubbles,as people revolt against rising income and wealth inequalities and demand protection from eroding value and marginal pricing power of their services.As discussed in our notes,this Maslowian disappointment is fuelled by a deadly and self-reinforcing embrace of technological disruption and over financialization,and it is unstoppable.Unlike 1932,this is not driven by unemployment or declining wages,but rather by eroding life-satisfaction and disintermediation of labour,where in Hararis words,ultimately there would be no cure for irrelevance.While most commentators argue that transition to the new world would take time and remains uncertain,it is the marginal changes rather than averages that determine economic and political outcomes;and on a margin people feel(justifiably)that they are suffering from a declining marginal utility and that wealth and income inequalities are widening.The response to the twin evils of declining productivity and dropping marginal pricing power was to embark from 1980s onward on a period of intense financialization,thus bringing future consumption to the present by relying on asset prices to fill the void.Alas,financialization has its negative consequences of further aggravating inequalities while requiring an ever declining cost of capital,which in turn prevents clearances(causing even stronger disinflation)and contributes towards acceleration in the pace of technological substitution.The remedy was in many ways worse than the disease.Now people are rebelling against financialization without recognizing that it was the financialization that enabled wealth creation over the last three decades.There is no doubt that if we ever try to converge money supply and nominal GDP,value of assets would drop,and the same people will discover that their pensions are not worth much,and that their houses are under water.There is no way out of this,other than continuing to ensure that asset prices are holistically supported,and it can be only achieved by liquidity growing faster than nominal GDP and volatilities must be constrained to an ever narrower ranges.Although monetary levers are the key,increasingly we believe that public sectors would come to rely far more extensively on fiscal policies,not only because they are less distorting but also because they are