麦格理-美股-互联网服务业-美国叫车服务调查：深入挖掘消费者价格敏感性-2019.10.1-28页.pdf

Please refer to page 25 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website October 2019 United States EQUITIES UBER US Outperform Price(at 20:50,01 Oct 2019 GMT)US$30.47 Valuation US$51.00 -Sum of Parts 12-month target US$51.00 12-month TSR%+67.4 GICS sector Transportation Market cap US$m 51,799 30-day avg turnover US$m 250.0 Number shares on issue m 1,700 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue m 11,270 14,104 19,011 23,830 EBIT m-2176-3745-3476-1987 EBIT growth%nmf-72.1 7.2 42.8 Reported profit m 997-9334-5957-4378 Adjusted profit m 1,854-3697-4077-2498 EPS rep US$2.08-7.48-3.44-2.50 EPS rep growth%nmf nmf 53.9 27.4 EPS adj US$3.87-3.95-2.36-1.43 EPS adj growth%nmf nmf 40.4 39.4 ROA%11.8-11.2-11.6-6.8 ROE%-25.1-123.7-35.9-30.8 LYFT US Outperform Price(at 20:50,01 Oct 2019 GMT)US$40.84 Valuation US$78.00 -EV/Sales 12-month target US$78.00 12-month TSR%+91.0 GICS sector Transportation Market cap US$m 11,959 30-day avg turnover US$m 330.0 Number shares on issue m 292.8 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenue m 3,498.2 4,261.4 5,148.8 6,009.3 EBIT m-993.7-890.6-872.3-535.3 EBIT growth%nmf 10.4 2.1 38.6 Reported profit m-2816.3-1827.6-1818.5-1481.5 Adjusted profit m-898.8-796.4-787.3-450.3 EPS rep US$-12.48-6.00-5.72-4.50 EPS rep growth%nmf 51.9 4.6 21.3 EPS adj US$-11.36-2.62-2.48-1.37 EPS adj growth%nmf 76.9 5.4 44.6 ROA%-17.7-16.8-15.8-9.0 ROE%-29.0-30.2-31.9-18.3 Source:FactSet,Macquarie Research,October 2019(all figures in USD unless noted)Analysts Macquarie Capital(USA)Inc.Maynard Um +1 212 231 8098 Tim Liu +1 212 231 1341 Corey Grady,CFA +1 212 231 0376 Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 U.S.Ride Hail to Continue to Grow;Digging Deeper Into Consumer Price Sensitivity Key points U.S.ride hail sector to continue to grow via rider penetration and ride frequency,as consumers increasingly adopt ride hail for personal use cases.Largest competitor to ride hail is car ownership,though roughly half of respondents could consider ride hail/car share in lieu of car ownership.Respondents more sensitive to price hikes,suggesting greater risk to ride hail sectors ability to offset costs from AB5 and NYC regulation.Further Room for Greater Rider Penetration&Ride Frequency We believe the U.S.ride hail industry has further room for growth via greater rider penetration(46%of respondents not using ride hail),greater ride frequency(63%of respondents using ride hail only use the service 0-1 times per week),and increased consumer adoption of ride hail for personal use cases(top use cases for ride hail from our survey were airport transit,personal local social occasions,and personal vacations).Furthermore,after analysing demographic statistics from our survey results,we believe ride hail companies are using targeted promotional discounting on consumers 65+(lower penetrated segment)and 18-24(highest customer lifetime value segment)years old in order to expedite ride hail adoption within the U.S.Car Ownership is Largest Competitor to Ride Hail,with Roughly Half of Respondents Potentially Willing to Consider Giving Up Car Ownership We believe personal car ownership is the largest competitor to ride hail,as survey respondents listed the top reason why they do not use ride hail apps is that they prefer using their own car.Still,roughly half of survey respondents expressed some willingness to consider adopting the combination of ride hail and car share in lieu of personal car ownership,which we believe helps reinforce the long term growth potential of the U.S.ride hail industry.Consumer Sensitivity to Price Hikes Potentially Increases Risks Associated with AB5 and NYC Regulations Survey respondents expressed relatively high sensitivity to price increases(61%indicated they would use the service less and 18%indicated they would stop using the service)vs.lower discounting(45%indicated they would use the service less and 5%indicated they would stop using the service).Thus,we believe consumer sensitivity to price hikes may hinder ride hail companies ability to raise prices to offset the higher costs associated with incremental AB5 and NYC TLC regulations.UBER and LYFT We reiterate our Outperform rating on UBER and LYFT as leading diversified platform companies with estimated TAMs of$5T and$2T,respectively.As incentive spend in the ride hail industry rationalizes and as ride hail gains greater adoption among consumers for different use cases,we believe UBER and LYFT will achieve strong growth rates and increasing levels of profitability going forward.Macquarie Research Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 1 October 2019 2 We used distributed random sampling to survey 200 people residing in the U.S.aged 18 and over on their ride hailing habits.Survey Summary Continued room for growth.Our survey results continue to suggest that additional room for growth exists within the U.S.ride hail market,as roughly half of respondents still do not use ride hail apps,while nearly two-thirds only use the service 0-1 times per week.Personal airport transport continued to be the top use case for ride hail,while business related airport transit jumped ahead to#2.Personal local social occasions and personal vacation were the#3 and#4 use cases for ride hail,reflecting some seasonality in the summer months.As consumers increasingly incorporate ride hail services into their everyday personal lives,we believe UBER and LYFT will be able to increase rider penetration and rides per active rider metrics to drive their top line growth going forward.Demographics of promotional activity may suggest age-specific targeting.Survey respondents aged 65+and 18-24 saw the largest increase in promotional activity,which suggests that ride hail companies may be targeting under penetrated older population segments in addition to young adult consumers(i.e.those with the maximum customer lifetime value potential).As ride hail companies increasingly optimize their marketing strategies among different population subsegments,we believe UBER and LYFT will be able to further improve rider penetration rates.Car ownership remains the top competition vs.ride hail.Preference for personal car use remained as a top reason for why nearly half of survey respondents chose not to use ride hailing apps,which is in line with Uber managements commentary that car ownership is the companys biggest competitor.We believe that ride hail does have the potential to incrementally take share from private car ownership though,as from our survey results,roughly half of respondents indicated some level of willingness to potentially consider replacing their vehicle and instead use ride hail/car share instead.We believe this represents a significant component of UBER and LYFTs long term growth trajectory.Consumers less sensitive to reduced discounting and more sensitive to price increase.50%of respondents indicated that they would continue to use ride hail with the same frequency if promotional discounts were decreased,a significant increase vs.our prior issues result of 37%.We believe this may be in part due to our addition of a new question,which asks how respondents would react to an increase in prices within ride hail.When asked how they would respond to a price increase in ride hail,18%(vs.5%if discounts were lowered)of respondents indicated they would stop using ride hailing,61%(vs.45%if discounts were lowered)of respondents indicated they would use ride hail less,and 21%(vs.50%if discounts were lowered)of respondents indicated they would use ride hail with the same frequency.We believe that these results may reflect consumers greater sensitivity to across the board price increases vs.less frequent promotional campaigns.We believe this may serve as a less promising data point for UBER/LYFT as the ride hail market further rationalizes discount levels and may potentially move to broadly increase prices in the face of increased regulation in New York City and the passage of AB5 in California.Stable market share between Uber and Lyft.In terms of market share,Uber was the most preferred app 64%of the time,while Lyft was most preferred 35%of the time in our current survey(generally in line with results from our prior survey issue at 64%and 36%,respectively).These figures are consistent with data published by third party vendors such as Second Measure.Macquarie Research Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 1 October 2019 3 Individual Question Results Question#1:Do you use ride hailing/sharing apps?The percentage of respondents surveyed who indicated that they use ride hailing apps was 54%,which is roughly in line with 55%in our prior survey issue.We believe these results generally support our view that the ride hail industry still has room for more significant growth.Fig 1 Percentage of Respondents Who Use Ride Hailing Apps Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Question#2:How many different ride hailing apps do you use in any given month?The number of respondents using 1 or 2 ride hailing apps each month in our latest survey was 50%and 42%,respectively,which is in line with responses from our prior survey.We believe these statistics continue to reflect the largely duopoly natured structure of the U.S.ride hail market,which we view as positive for both companies to the extent both focus less on promotional activity.We believe further market consolidation would be positive for both companies given their scale,particularly in certain markets that are more competitive.Fig 2 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Used by Respondents Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 51%45%46%49%55%54%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19NoYes53%50%50%41%42%42%4%7%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+appsMacquarie Research Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 1 October 2019 4 The number of respondents in rural areas that only checked one app was the highest vs.suburban and urban respondents,while respondents in suburban areas had the highest percentage of ride-hailers who only checked 1-2 apps vs.rural and urban respondents.Respondents in urban geographies had the highest percentage of ride-hailers who checked 3 or more apps.We believe these results correspond to the fact that urban areas have greater competition within ride hail whereas less populated areas are generally dominated by Uber&Lyft.Fig 3 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Used by Respondents Rural Zip Codes Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Fig 4 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Used by Respondents Suburban Zip Codes Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Fig 5 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Used by Respondents Urban Zip Codes Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 71%44%56%26%52%33%4%11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+apps48%49%52%48%42%43%5%9%5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+apps44%52%41%38%39%41%13%6%6%6%12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+appsMacquarie Research Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 1 October 2019 5 Question#3:How many different ride hailing apps do you check on average before booking a ride?The number of respondents checking 1 or 2 ride hailing apps each month in our latest survey was 57%and 34%,with the proportion of respondents checking 1-2 apps roughly remaining the same,checking 1 app decreasing,and checking 2 apps increasing.We believe these statistics continue to reflect the largely duopoly structure of the U.S.ride hail market.Fig 6 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Checked by Respondents Before Booking a Ride Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Urban respondents tend to check more apps before booking a ride,while suburban and rural respondents tend to check fewer apps before booking a ride.In our latest survey,we found that the majority of rural and suburban respondents checked only one app(56%and 52%versus 44%and 49%previously,respectively).Fig 7 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Checked by Respondents Before Booking a Ride Rural Zip Codes Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 45%41%34%44%47%57%9%11%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+apps71%44%56%26%52%33%4%11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+appsMacquarie Research Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 1 October 2019 6 Fig 8 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Checked by Respondents Before Booking a Ride Suburban Zip Codes Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Fig 9 Number of Ride Hailing Apps Checked by Respondents Before Booking a Ride Urban Zip Codes Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Question#4:How many rides on average do you take using ride hailing apps each week?Of those respondents who indicated they use ride hailing apps,63%(vs.64%last survey issue)said that they take 0-1 rides per week while 25%(vs.25%last survey issue)said that they take 2-3 rides per week.We believe these statistics suggest that the ride hail industry continues to have further room to grow by gaining deeper penetration within its user base(i.e.rides per active rider).48%49%52%48%42%43%5%9%5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+apps44%52%41%38%39%41%13%6%6%6%12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul-19Aug-19Sep-191 app2 apps3 apps4+appsMacquarie Research Ride Hailing Survey Series Issue#3 1 October 2019 7 Fig 10 Number of Rides per Week Taken by Respondents Using Ride Hailing Apps Note:July 2019 survey results did not break out 0-1 vs.2-3 trips/week Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Question#5:How likely are you to use a ride hailing app for the following occasions?Please rank the following choices(top choice as“1”)based on level of importance Of those respondents who indicated they use ride hailing apps,airport transit remained a top use case.Overall,personal airport transit remained the top use case among respondents surveyed.Compared to our prior survey,personal local social occasions dipped to#3,while business related airport transport climbed up to#2.Personal vacation remained at#4,while general personal occasions climbed ahead of general business occasions in the#5 spot.Fig 11 Top Use Cases for Ride Hailing(July 2019,Issue#1)Fig 12 Top Use Cases for Ride Hailing(August 2019,Issue#2)Fig 13 Top Use Cases for Ride Hailing(September 2019,Issue#3)Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)July 2019 Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)August 2019 Source:Macquarie Capital(USA)September 2019 Question#6:What is the name of your preferred ride hailing app?Survey respondents who used ride hailing apps continued to overwhelmingly prefer Uber,while Lyft was preferred 35%of the time.These results are roughly in line vs.our prior survey results of 36%and 64%of respondents preferring Lyft and Uber,respectively.Our survey requires participants to write in their responses and,in this survey,only one respondent wrote in a name that was not Uber or Lyft(this one respondent named Via as his/her