空客-2018-2037空客市场预测：全球网络、全球公民（航空）（英文）-2019.5-83页.pdf

Global Networks,Global CitizenWelcome to the 2018 edition ofAirbus Global Market Forecast(GMF).Commercial aviation is already the most global of businesses.Offi cial Airline Guide data shows that the global network connects all countries in the world:3,190 cities and3,250 airports.Connectivity between these airports,which has doubled since the early nineteen-eighties,continues to grow,and more of the worlds people from both emerging and mature economies use aviation as part of their lives.Global network travel encourages more people to see themselves as global citizens.In the same way as accessto the internet and social media provoke curiosity and interest in other people and other places,physically travelling between cities and countries satisfi es that curiosity in allowing people to meet and understand each other.And that understanding is one of the most powerful forces for good in the world.One only needs to look at the“propensity to fl y”section of this book and the accompanying GMF 2018 App to see how air travel can grow further.It is particularly noticeable in the emerging countries.In India for example the propensityto fl y is 0.1 trips per capita today but by 2037 will rise to0.4,or roughly four times greater.A BBC survey*questioned 20,000 people from 18 countries and found that 56%of the people surveyed coming from emerging countries saw themselves fi rst and foremost as global citizens.In India this fi gure was 67%.The BBC suggests this is partly because“the world as a whole is becoming more prosperous and air travel is becoming more affordable to the rising middle classes.”This is one of the common themes in ourGlobal Market Forecast when we explore the driversfor growth in aviation.We hope that you fi nd the 2018 Global Market Forecast informative and useful.We seek to improve our analyses continually,and your questions,challenges and suggestions help us advance towards this goal.Dont forget you can download our App to your smartphone.It complementsthe forecast and enables you to have facts,fi gures and insights at your fi ngertips wherever you go.If all you wantare the numbers,you can download an excel sheet .IntroductionI am not an Athenianor a Greek,but a citizenof the world.Socrates003Global Networks,Global Citizens01Executivesummary007057 Asia-Pacifi c071 Europe079 North America089 Middle East097 Latin America&Caribbean107 Commonwealthof Independent States117 Africa05Demandby region05506Freighterforecast12707Servicesforecast13508Methodology&summary data15302Demandfor air travel01503Network&Traffi cforecast03304Demand for passengeraircraft043Global Networks,Global Citizens004005Global Networks,Global CitizensExecutivesummary01005Executive summary Long term growth potential for our industry is confirmed:The commercial aviation Industry has been resilient to external shocks,traffic has grown x2.3 since 2000 Traffic forecast to double in the next 15 years Our forecast confirms a 4.4%average traffic growth p.a.over the next 20 years Demand for 37,400 passenger and freight aircraft over the next 20 years:30%for aircraft replacement,and 70%for growth 36,560 passenger aircraft and 830 new build freighters The small segment will represent 76%of deliveries and 54%of the value The M,L,XL segments will represent 24%of demand in units,but 46%of the value Asia-Pacific will account for 42%of deliveries,with airlines in North America and Europe together 35%of the passenger aircraft deliveries The services market is forecast to deliver a cumulative US$4.6 trillion over the next 20 years010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000New Deliveries2037Beginning 201847,99026,54010,85010,60037,390GrowReplaceStay21,450Number of aircraft THE WORLD FLEET WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Notes:Passenger aircraft(100 seats)|Jet freight aircraft(10 tonnes),Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source:Airbus GMF 2018 AROUND 37,400 AIRCRAFT WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Notes:Passenger aircraft(100 seats)|Jet freight aircraft(10 tons)Source:Airbus GMF 201828,550(76%)SMLXL5,480(15%)1,760(5%)37,400aircraft units1,590(4%)$3.2 tn(54%)SMLXL$1.4 tn(25%)$0.6 tn(10%)$5.8 trillionaircraft value$0.6 tn(11%)007Executive summaryExecutive summary00605101520252037203220272022201720122007200219971992198719821977World annual traffc(trillion RPKs)Oil CrisisGulf CrisisSARS9/11FinancialCrisisAsianCrisisAirbus GMF 2018 4.4%growth p.pa.x2x2x2 TRAFFIC HAS PROVEN TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND DOUBLES EVERY 15 YEARS Source:ICAO,Airbus GMF 2018RPK=Revenue Passenger KilometreExecutive summary008009Executive summary PASSENGER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 100 SEATS AND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 10 TONS Source:Airbus GMF 2018 Rounded figures to the nearest 1020182027 2028203720182037 SHARE OF 2018-2037 NEW DELIVERIES AFRICA 450 6801,1303%ASIA-PACIFIC6,4809,16015,64042%CIS5806401,2203%EUROPE3,6503,4207,07019%LATIN AMERICA1,3301,3802,7107%MIDDLE EAST1,3401,4902,8308%NORTH AMERICA2,9702,9905,96016%FREIGHTERS4503808302%WORLD TOTAL17,25020,14037,390100%ConvertedRemarketed&stayin service36,56037,3901,5608,7008309,54010,8501,310PassengerFleetNewDeliveriesRetiredFreighterFleet011Executive summaryExecutive summary010Demandfor air travel02013Demand for air travelTHE SHORT TERM_ It was another good year for aviation in 2017,with traffi c growth measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres up 7.5%year on year,and capacity,Available Seat Kilometers(ASKs)up 6.5%.As in 2016,this additional capacity was added carefully indicated by the fact that an already record global load factor improved further by almost a percentage point.This additional capacity was distributed globally,with 117 countries growing more than 5%in the year,with 70 of these growing more than 10%.The network also continued to evolve with more movements and more connectivity,both positive for the worlds passengers and for the businesses at their points of origin and destination.Since 1990,both aircraft movements and the number of destinations have doubled.010203040506070809010010%5%-10%0%-5%=2,500nm10 yearGROWTHx1.6Long-haul with1 or more stopsx1.5Long-hauldirectx1.8Short-haul048049Demand for passenger aircraftDemand for passenger aircraft11%85%3%1%15%78%3%4%18%75%4%2%NorthAmerica14%80%2%4%Asia-PacifcAfrica8%89%2%1%LatinAmericaEurope11%82%4%3%CIS16%43%22%19%MiddleEastSmallMediumLargeX-Large5,964(16%)2,707(7%)7,072(19%)15,643(43%)1,131(4%)1,221(3%)2,825(8%)Passenger aircraft above 100 seats05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002037New deliveriesBeginning 201819,80325,46245,26536,56320-yearnew deliveries11,1018,702GrowthReplacementStay DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT SUMMARY (EXCL.FREIGHTERS)PASSENGER FLEET IN SERVICE EVOLUTION 2018-2037 Source:Airbus GMF 201814%78%4%4%57%10%9%MarketvalueUS$5.6trillionNewdeliveries36,563aircraft24%57%10%9%MarketvalueUS$5.6trillion050051Demand for passenger aircraftDemand for passenger aircraftDemandby region05053Demand by region ECONOMY_ Although India is now outpacing China in economic growth,Asia-Pacifi c remains fi rmly connected to China and its transition to a service/domestic consumptionbased economy.Recently the worst fears on slowing Chinese economic growth have eased,although this has been replaced to some extent with trade concerns.New manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam and Indonesia are emerging in Asia as Chinas cost competitiveness evolves.In Asia,domestic sources of growth,particularly private consumption,will play a larger role in the coming years.Asia-Pacifi c will continue to lead world economic growth with expected average real GDP growth of+3.9%per year over the next 20 years.Asia-Pacifi c055Demand by region 0-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,000Real GDP CAGR 2007-2017IndiaPakistanAustraliaPRCJapanThailandBangladeshIndonesiaMalaysiaNepalReal GDP in 2017(billion 2010 USD)DYNAMICS OF ASIA-PACIFICS COUNTRIES IN 2017 Bubble size proportional to 2017 population Source:IHS Economics,Airbus GMF 2018Asia DevelopedAsia EmergingIndian SubcontinentPacifc Australia/New-ZealandPRCTRENDS_ The economic growth in many Asian countries is high,particularly compared to world growth in 2017,which was 3.2%,with China,India and Japan standing out in terms of the value of real GDP in 2017.Due to the size and diversity in the Asia-Pacific region just talking about“Asia”can mask some insights that a slightly different,more granular view,of the region could give.It is for this reason that in this years GMF as well as looking at some individual countries like China,we have also grouped and differentiated other countries into Asia Developed,with their more mature economies,and Asia Emerging,with its more dynamic,evolving countries and economies.056057Demand by regionDemand by region Tourism is playing an increasing role in Asia,with the region second only to Europe in terms of International tourist arrivals,which has grown by nearly 270 million since 1990.It is unsurprising that with this increase the importance of tourism to Asian economies is also high,with many countries in the region having above world average contributions to their GDP from tourism.This is particularly true for those countries in Emerging Asia.Asia Pacific broke a new record in foreign arrivals in 2017,topping a cumulative count of 636 million visitors to the region,according to a report by the Pacific Asia Travel Association(PATA).International tourist arrivals to each region(million)NORTHERN EUROPEOCEANIACENTRAL AM.NORTH AFRICASUB-SAHARANAFR.CARIBBEANSOUTH AMERICANORTH AMERICASOUTH ASIASOUTH-EAST ASIANORTH-EAST ASIACENTRAL EUROPEWESTERN EUROPESOUTHERNMEDIT.EUROPE0100200300400500600700800Middle EastAfricaAmericasAsia-PacifcEurope+49+410+268+114+47 ASIA-PACIFIC IS THE SECOND MOST VISITED REGION IN THE WORLD AFTER EUROPE Tourist:Overnight visitors travelling by air and other means of transport UNWTO regions;Europe including CIS Source:UNWTO,Airbus GMF 20181990200020102017058059Demand by regionDemand by region05Asia DevelopedAsia EmergingPRCPacifc,Australia/New-ZealandIndian SubcontinentBRUNEIJAPANNEPALMYANMARINDONESIASOLOMON ISLANDSPAPUA NEW GUINEAINDIAPAKISTANBANGLADESHSOUTH KOREATAIWANWorldaverageMALDIVESVANUATUFIJIMACAUCAMBODIATHAILANDPHILIPPINESLAOSMALAYSIAMONGOLIASINGAPOREHONG KONGCHINAKIRIBATITONGANEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIASRI LANKA77%46%40%57%Above World averageVIETNAMContribution of tourism to 2017 GDP(%)101520253035 TOURISM PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIES Source:WTTC,Airbus GMF 2018060061Demand by regionDemand by region In terms of outbound travel compared with other parts of the region China and India appear to have more potential for growth in international flights,both within Asia and to destinations outside the region.This appears to have been recognised by the CAAC(Civil Aviation Administration of China)for example,who have stated that airline companies are being encouraged to operate from the new Beijing airport when it opens in 2019,and to create more international routes.The CAAC have stated they will endorse new airline routes originating from Beijings new airport to help develop its international airline network.Airline business models are also evolving and helping to shape the Asia Pacific market.This is particularly evident when examining the seats offered by the various business models over the last ten years,with airlines operating as low-cost airlines contributing significantly to the growth in the number of seats offered within the various Asian markets.It is apparent however that some markets have seen more low-cost activity than others,for example to the Asia Emerging market segment,whereas In China there appears more potential to develop.020406080100120Pacifc Australia/New-ZealandIndianSubcontinentAsiaEmergingAsiaDevelopedPRCASKs by airline domiciled in each region,1997,2007 and 2017(Billion)x2.7199720172007x2.3x2.0 x1.3x1.3Total seats from/to/within in each region by business model,2007,2012 and 2017(Million)01252503755006257508751,000Pacifc Australia/New-ZealandIndianSubcontinentAsiaEmergingAsiaDevelopedPRCFull Service CarriersLow Cost Carriers Other business models(Regional/Commuter,Charter/Leisure,other)DomesticInternational(out of Asia/Pacifc)International(within Asia/Pacifc)POTENTIAL FOR INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS GROWTH FOR PRC&INDIAN AIRLINES Source:OAG Month of Sept.,Airbus GMF STRONG LOW COST CARRIER PENETRATION IN ASIA EMERGING AND INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,STILL ROOM FOR POTENTIAL LCC IN PRC Source:OAG,Airbus GMF062063Demand by regionDemand by region A factor helping to characterise the intra-regionalAsia-Pacifi c market are the large population centresand relatively large distances between them.It is for this reason that compared to other regionsthe average weighting of the market is over slightlylonger distance and for larger aircraft types.350300250200150100500(0,100(400,500(800,900(1200,1300(1600,1700(2000,21002400Avg aircraft capacity by distance bracket(nm),bubbles proportionnal to seats offeredon domestic&intra-regional by airlines based in each region-2017 INTRA-REGIONAL ROUTES ARE OPERATED WITH HIGHER CAPACITY IN ASIA/PACIFIC Source:Airbus GMFEuropeNorth&Latin AmericaAsia-Pacifc064065Demand by regionDemand by region 3805652,20412,494NorthAmerica4.1%LatinAmerica5.3%MiddleEast6.0%CIS5.4%DomesticandIntra-Regional*Passenger aircraft 100 seats *2017-2037 CAGR Real Trade4.3%Intra-regional&domestic6.0%Inter-regional4.7%20186,594203719,361Totaltraffc5.5%Real GDP3.9%Fleet in service20 yearnewdeliveries15,643Total RPKtraffc growth2017-20272027-20372017-20374.8%4.0%4.4%6.1%4.8%5.5%Africa7.5%LIFE CYCLESERVICES VALUE$832bnNEW PILOTS219,040NEW TECHS262,660Fleet inserviceevolutionStay in service&Remarketed3,7186,594New deliveries15,64319,361Growth12,767Fleet size*2037Beginning2018Replacement2,876Servicesdemand forecastAsia-PacifcWorldNumber of new pax aircraftNew deliveries by segmentAsia-Pacifc6.0%Europe3.1%MediumLargeX-LargeSmall066067Demand by regionDemand by region ECONOMY_ The upside for European economic growth is being sustained by monetary stimulus,better access to credit,reduced fiscal headwinds,and solid consumer and business confidence,which is above the long-term trend at time of writing.The political situation in Europe remains influenced by recent elections and Brexit which are expected to continue into at least the medium term.Eurozone long term challenges remain;progress on fiscal and financial union as well as the need for structural reforms on labour,pensions and markets liberalisation.Real GDP is expected to grow at+1.8%per year in the 2017-2037 period.Europe069Demand by regionTRENDS_ If you visit airports in Europe the growing presence of the low cost airline business model will be clear.Today,42%of the seats offered on domestic and intra-regional routings(that is flights between or within countries in Europe)are operated by airlines with one of the low cost business models.Just focusing on the intra-regional operations of airlines in Europe,it can be seen over just 10 years,how these business models have evol