瑞信-新兴市场-宏观策略-2019年新兴市场消费者调查-2019.3-68页.pdf

Color gradient or Image placeholderResearch Institute March 2019Emerging Consumer Survey 2019Thought leadership from Credit Suisse and the worlds foremost experts2Editorial We are delighted to publish the ninth edition of the Credit Suisse Research Institutes Emerging Consumer Survey,a study that draws on the annual findings of 13,285 detailed face-to-face interviews with consumers across eight emerging economies which reflect USD 10.7 trillion of consumption.These consumers continue to redraw the global consumption map as their incomes rise.China specifically has now become the second-largest final consumer market in the world and also the second-largest pool of wealth.The survey provides a unique resource with which to analyze these developments.We again analyze the fortunes of consumers across Brazil,China,India,Indonesia,Mexico,Russia and Turkey,and the related growth opportunities,but also add a focus on Thailand for the first time to broaden our analysis of the Asia region.Despite a less-supportive cyclical backdrop in 2018,our survey still reveals healthy confidence among a majority of our respondents looking into 2019.In recent surveys,the prospects for the Asian consumer have stood out as the brightest,and we again find India topping our sentiment scorecard supported by positive income characteristics.China ranks third,although its standing has slipped a notch,displaying the weakest income expectations we have seen for China.Real wages in China are currently increasing at their slowest pace for seven years.The most notable and positive regional develop-ment this year has been a rapid improvement in consumer sentiment in Latin America.Following a major political upheaval in Brazil and Mexico,we are seeing consumers recording the highest levels of confidence in their personal financial outlook since the start of our survey.Brazil ranks second in our scorecard and,of the two Latin countries our analysts review,has the more secure medium-term outlook in macroeconomic terms in our view.Alongside the country contrasts,the study again delves into structural and behavioral themes at work.When assessing the growth prospects of consumer end-markets,the role played by the“millennial”consumer is key.The study provides a unique picture of the current priorities and preferences of this important segment across these markets and exposes some myths along the way.Overall,the picture that emerges indi-cates a greater appetite for spending on health and convenience-related lifestyle products.It is not all about luxury items.Spending on cars and holidays has also weakened in this group of consumers.The demographic dynamics are crucial of course,and we compare and contrast India and China in this regard and the 2.7 billion consumers they represent.Both markets have benefited from a demographic dividend,but each country is at a different stage China is now already at a demographically higher stage of development than India.Yet,with its working-age population soon to surpass that of China,India has better long-term demographics for growth.We hope you enjoy the 2019 edition of our work and wish you an insightful read.Urs RohnerChairman of the Board of Directors Credit Suisse Group AGEmerging Consumer Survey 2019302 Editorial04 Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2019 05 The emerging consumer in 2019 12 Spotlight on macro15 The mood of the millennials 24 Spotlight on the young consumer and gaming27 India and China:Demographic drivers37 Emerging country themes 37 Latin America 40 India 42 China 44 Indonesia 46 Spotlight on Thailand:Inflection point49 Country profiles 50 India 51 Brazil 52 China 53 Mexico 54 Indonesia 55 Thailand 56 Russia 57 Turkey58 Appendices 58 Appendix 1 60 Appendix 2 62 Appendix 364 About the survey65 Imprint66 General disclaimer/important informationFor more information,contact:Richard Kersley Head Global Thematic ResearchCredit Suisse Internationalrichard.kersleycredit-Nannette Hechler-Faydherbe Chief Investment Officer International Wealth Management and Global Head of Economics&ResearchCredit Suisse AG nannette.hechler-faydherbecredit-Credit Suisse Research Institute research.institutecredit- credit- photo:GettyImages,Brochard Alexandre/EyeEm4Number of respondents:13,285 across eight countries.70%in urban areas;30%in rural areas.Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2019*Note:%of survey sampled from this countryMexico(11%*)No.of respondents:1,507Locations:5Urban areas:70%Rural areas:30%Turkey(8%*)No.of respondents:1,027Locations:14Urban areas:70%Rural areas:30%Russia(8%*)No.of respondents:1,005Locations:8Urban areas:67%Rural areas:33%China(19%*)No.of respondents:2,565Locations:11Urban areas:69%Rural areas:31%Brazil(11%*)No.of respondents:1,524Locations:5Urban areas:70%Rural areas:30%India(20%*)No.of respondents:2,618Locations:10Urban areas:70%Rural areas:30%Thailand(12%*)No.of respondents:1,538Locations:9Urban areas:75%Rural areas:25%Indonesia(11%*)No.of respondents:1,501Locations:10Urban areas:66%Rural areas:34%Emerging Consumer Survey 20195The emerging consumer in 2019A unique perspective on the consumption supertrendThe aim of the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey is to provide a granular analysis of the profile,mood and behavior of consumers who are becoming the dominant influence on global consumption.China has become the second largest final consumption market in the world.Together with India,it represents almost 15%of global consumption and with ongoing income growth and rapid wealth accumulation in the years ahead,a redrawing of the global con-sumption map will continue.Despite the growth in consumption,Chinas consumption share of GDP still remains a low 38%.Richard Kersley,Bahar Sezer LongworthThe key for an investor is to understand how this supertrend plays out at ground level,which is the guidance our survey provides.It stretches across eight major emerging economies,with an aggregate population approaching four billion,representing total consumption of USD 10.7 trillion.The 13,285 detailed face-to-face interviews conducted on our behalf by leading consumer research firm Nielsen,provide unique bottom-up insights into specific end-markets,products and brand preferences,alongside overall barometers of confidence.As before,the markets included in the 2019 edition include Brazil,China,India,Indonesia,Mexico and Turkey.This year,we have added Thailand as a new market.South Africa is not included on this occasion.Table 1:Survey sentiment indicators(average readings)*2015-2017 exclude Thailand and South Africa.Source:Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2019Personal financesInflation expectationsGood time to make a major purchaseIncome expectationsIncome change in last 12 monthsNet balance better vs.worseNet balance higher vs.lowerNet balance,excellent time vs.bad timeNet balance increase vs.decreaseNet balance increase vs.decrease201827.431.78.726.60.92018(incl.Thailand)26.135.48.027.02.1201723.638.05.525.12.8201620.335.710.117.94.8201516.743.712.725.73.8While Asia has been at the heart of the emerging consumer theme,the political rupture in Latin Americas largest economies has delivered a new-found optimism among consumers in Brazil and Mexico,and this provides the backdrop to the ninth edition of the Emerging Consumer Survey.India still tops our“scorecard,”retaining a bright structural outlook,but global political tensions are arguably weighing on the Chinese consumer.However,the weakest survey readings are to be found in Russia and Turkey,which are suffering the economic fallout from weak currencies and political risks.New to this survey,we analyze the perceptions of the Thai consumer.6Our proprietary database also allows all the ques-tions to be assessed by demographic consider-ations of age,gender,region and income level(the full questionnaire and additional data not provided in this report are available on request).There is no other survey conducted that bench-marks consumers across emerging economies with such granularity.The mood of the momentTo summarize the overall mood of consumers,we highlight the survey readings focusing on five key questions that represent the basis of our Emerging Consumer Scorecard:1.“Is now a good time to make a major purchase?”2.“Do you think the state of your own personal finances over the next six months will be better,worse,or about the same?”3.“What do you expect will happen to inflation (the price of goods and services)in the next 12 months?”4.“In what way do you expect your household income to change over the next 12 months?”5.“In what way did your household income change over the last 12 months?”In focusing on these questions,we are seeking to capture the immediate perception of the con-sumer environment(Question 1);a more medium-term and broader assessment of consumers financial positions(Question 2);fears of inflation,given its ability to erode income through food prices in particular(Question 3);and income momentum,which is the key to ultimate spending(Questions 4 and 5).In Appendix 3,we show a breakdown of the country scores for Questions 1,2 and 5 by age,income and region.These results typically show that the readings are positively skewed toward the young and urban consumer.To allow for comparison of the results across the current and previous studies,we have shown in Table 1 both aggregate sentiment indicators for these questions excluding Thailand and South Africa,as well as aggregate results for 2019 that include Thailand.We find there is a message of optimism as we look at these aggregate indicators,tempered by some nearer-term caution with respect to the immediate consumer backdrop.First,optimism is reflected in the net balance of people believing their personal finances will improve,which stands at its highest level since 2015,both excluding and including Thailand at 27.4 and 26.1,respectively.Second,inflation expectations for the countries in this and the last survey have fallen,thus supporting the outlook for real purchasing power.The readings including Thailand are admittedly higher,although the net balance of 35.4 is still the lowest recorded in our survey since 2015.Third,and perhaps under-Figure 1:Net percentage of respondents replying“Yes”to “Is now a good time to make a major purchase”Source Figures 13:Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2019Figure 2:Net percentage of respondents expecting an improvement in their personal finances in the next six monthsFigure 3:Net percentage of respondents expecting inflation to increase in the next 12 months-50-40-30-20-10010203040IndiaChinaThailandRussia Indonesia MexicoBrazilTurkey201620172018-20-10010203040506070BrazilIndiaMexicoChinaIndonesia ThailandRussiaTurkey201620172018010203040506070BrazilMexicoTurkeyChinaIndiaIndonesiaRussiaThailand201620172018Emerging Consumer Survey 20197pinning the positive theme,we see an increase in the net balance of people recording positive income momentum from 25.1 to 26.6,slightly higher still if including Thailand.If these are the positive forward-looking measures for 2019,the less-bullish readings are apparent in the lower proportion of people who think“now is a good time to make a major purchase”and,alongside this,a less-buoyant income experi-ence with a net balance of 0.9 versus 2.8 on a like-for-like basis.Regarding the former question,a number of our country teams(e.g.India)have noted a decline in consumer appetite for big-ticket purchases such as cars and luxury items consis-tent with these weaker readings.Clearly,the aggregate experience reflected in Table 1 is not mirrored in each individual country as we outline below,breaking down the survey readings for each question by country.However,one point to flag at the outset is the material impact of Turkeys exceptionally weak readings on the overall readings as we explain later.Country contrastsIn Figures 1 to 5,we compare the strength of the responses by country,with the strongest on the left of the charts and descending thereafter.What becomes quickly apparent from the mood reflected in prior surveys has been a consistent robustness in confidence among Asian consumers versus the rest of the emerging world,where consumers have struggled amid economic and political negatives.However,there are signs of change in 2019,with recovering Latin American consumers in particular beginning to reshuffle the order.First,we consider the two specific questions that stand out at the aggregate level,focusing on the improvement in personal finances(Figure 2)and improving income momentum(Figure 4).India has been consistently top of the rankings on this metric and readings have remained strong.How-ever,it is Brazil and Mexico that have seen the biggest increase in the net balance for personal finances.What is also notable here is that the improvement has come across all income levels rather than skewed to affluent consumers.These sharp increases in confidence in the financial outlook are mirrored in a similar positive,and related,trend in income expectations in Brazil,India and Mexico,although again it is the Latin American countries that stand out,particularly Mexico(Figure 4).As our country analysts argue later,consumer confidence indicators have indeed been quite strong recently out of Mexico,but there seem to be reasons to be cautious,as private investment could moderate,and corpo-rates feel less optimistic compared to consumers.Indonesia,however,boasts the strongest income Figure 4:Net percentage of respondents who expect household income to increase over the next 12 monthsSource Figures 46:Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2019Figure 5:Net percentage of respondents who have seen household income increase over the last 12 months-20-100102030405060IndonesiaBrazilIndiaMexicoThailandChinaRussiaTurkey201620172018-40-30-20-10010203040IndiaIndonesiaChinaThailandMexicoRussiaBrazilTurkey201620172018Figure 6:Survey sentiment indicators excluding Turkey-15-10-50510152025303540PersonalfinancesInflationexpectationsGood time tomake a majorpurchaseIncomeexpectationsIncome changein last 12m20182018(excluding Turkey)8expectations,presumably supported by the approximately 79%average increase in the Conditional Cash Transfer(PKH)program for ten million households.We would note Chinas slippage here with the lowest income expectations of the Asian countries.As reflected in the aggregate data in Table 1,the backdrop has been more challenging when we look at the income experience over the last 12 months(Figure 5)and whether“now is a good time to make a major purchase”(Figure 1).The proportion seeing“now as a good time to make a major purchase”faded in most markets,save for an improvement in Brazil,albeit still negative.We also see the contrast between the Asian economies relative to the other markets referred to above,with the Asian countries superior in all but one instance.However,while a marked gap existed in these measures between Asia and Latin America,the gap closed some-what with notable improvements in the relative i