瑞信-美股-投资策略-保险—资产管理模式的详细分析-2019.5.21-31页 (2).pdfVIP免费

CreditSuisseEquityResearchAmericas/UnitedStatesADetailedAnalysisoftheInsurer-AssetManagerModel+Our“C-Corp&FRETwist”UpgradingApollotoOutperform;DowngradingCarlyle&KKRtoNeutralMay21,2019Brokers&AssetManagersCraigSiegenthaler,CFAManagingDirector+12123253104Craig.Siegenthaler@credit-suisse.comStevenCastanoAnalyst+12123252653Steven.Castano@credit-suisse.comLifeInsuranceAndrewKligermanManagingDirector+12123255069Andrew.Kligerman@credit-suisse.comWilmaBurdisVicePresident+12123251594Wilma.Burdis@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Our“C-Corp&FRETwist”+ApolloBullCaseOur“C-Corp&FRETwist”–upgradingAPOtoOutperform+downgradingKKRandCGtoNeutral:Wearere-focusingonthealtsthatwill(1)benefitfromrecent/futureC-Corpconversions(APOconvertsin3Q19),(2)generatestrongerthanexpectedFRE(fee-relatedearnings)growthand(3)experiencelessnegativeearningsrevisionsinthenexteconomicrecession.WhilewearestillbullishonthealtsandcontinuetorateARESandBXatOutperform,wealsobelieveAPOisanattractivethirdaddition,andwethinkallthreewillOutperformunderournext12monthsframework.Understandingthebullcase:Apollocouldcontinuetobeoneofthefastestgrowingfirmsinthealternativesverticaloverthenextfiveyearslargelyduetotheexpansionofitsinsurancebusinessandrelatedpermanentcapitalvehicles.Thesebusinesscontributetoalmost50%ofAPO’sFRE.ThefundamentalAPObullcaseis:1)FutureFREgrowthrelatedtoAthene/Athora-arguably2ndfastest3Ytrajectory(ARES#1)butitispartiallydependentoninsuranceacquisitionpipeline(whichcanbeimpactedbyATH’sdepressedvaluation).2)APO’sFundVIIIrealizationtrajectory(somewhatlower/delayednowafterweak2018)–AP...