瑞信-美股-石油与天然气行业-北美石油与天然气勘探与产品：2019年Q2中小型企业预览-2019.7.17-40页 (2).pdfVIP免费

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.17July2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchOil&GasExploration&ProductionE&PResearchAnalystsBettyJiang,CFA2123256259betty.jiang@credit-suisse.comChrisBaker,CFA2123256375chris.baker@credit-suisse.comSECTORREVIEW2Q19SMIDE&PCompanyPreview■Despite2Qpricingweakness,E&Psareshowingsolidoperationalperformanceandstayingdisciplinedoncapex.WeexpectourSMID-Capuniversetodeliver2Qproductionlargelyin-linewithconsensus,butCPFS/EBITDXestimates~5%/3%belowStreetprimarilyonweakergas/NGLrealizations.2Qcapexisalsobiased~3%aboveStreetonaverage.Whilemajorityofour9missesfor2Qisonpricing,weseethebiggestdeltaforXECwithbelow-streetcashflowcarryingthroughinto2H19and2020.SRCIisthesolenotableoilproductionmisswhileweseeQEPbeatingonoilvolumesbutnotoncashflow.Onthepositiveside,weonlysee2beats:CDEVstandsoutongasrealizationthankstomarketingagreementwhileefficiencygainsarebiasingactivity/productionhigher.EQTshouldbeatcashflowontightergasdifferential.Lastly,despiteho-hum2Qupdates,weseeapositivesetupforWLLandWPXwithearlyindicationon3Qproductionincreasingconfidencelevelon2H19.OurcompanionpreviewcoverssectorthemesfortheCSU.S.E&Puniverse.■Amidsthighinvestorpressurefordiscipline,webelieveanycapexhikeisoffthetablein2019.Giventhecommodityvolatilityinthelastfewmonths,webelievemanagementswon’tevenentertainthepossibilityofhigheractivityin2H19.Whileefficiencygainsappeartobeacceleratingactivityforward(reasonforourhigher2QcapexforXEC,LPI,CDEV,CLR,PDCE),weexpectE&Pstostayfirmoncapexandismorelikelytolayoffrig/crewinthebackhalfoftheyeartostaywithinbudgets.Already,PDCE&LPIaretalkingaboutfracholid...