瑞信-亚洲地区-投资策略-瑞信Axl聚焦列表：可靠的投资观点-2019.1-23页.pdf

Credit Suisse AxJ Focus List Our best high conviction ideas Credit Suisse(Hong Kong)Limited Manish Nigam +852 2101 7067 manish.nigamcredit- January,2019 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Asia ex.Japan Focus ListAsia ex.Japan Focus List Summary COMPANY TICKER COUNTRY SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS INCLUSION BNI BBNI.JK Indonesia Banks Most of its loan growth is derived from government infrastructure projects,and are hence safer.Current valuation is still not demanding in our view.16-Oct-2018 China Gas Holdings 0384.HK China Utilities Fully diversified business mix offers strong protection against macro uncertainties and we expect the company to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming Russia gas starting 2H19E.16-Oct-2018 China Merchants Bank 3968.HK China Banks Double-digit earnings growth and has the capacity to absorb 5-6%new NPL influx each year thanks to its strong core business profitability.9-Jan-2019 China Tower 0788.HK China Telecommunication Services Chinas three telcos are set to roll out further macro 4G/5G base BTS,leading to demand for CTCs towers.CTC holds a de facto monopoly over provision of macro towers in China and with lease rates fixed for the next 5 years,it enjoys a highly predictable revenue stream.9-Jan-2019 COLI 0688.HK China Real Estate COLI is primarily edged on its high quality landbank thanks to its well-diversified geographic distribution and high exposure to top-tier cities.Another key competitive advantage is its strong balance sheet.4-May-2018 DBS DBSM.SI Singapore Banks DBS is a beneficiary of rising US rates with over 80%of loans linked to US rates.It also benefits from outbound flows from China into ASEAN which results in growth in wealth management in Asia.We expect it to maintain its high dividend payout policy of 50%.16-Oct-2018 HDFC Bank HDBK.BO India Banks Continues to maintain its retail focus and asset quality has been stable.We expect market share gains to continue.3-Jul-2014 Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS China Food,Beverage&Tobacco 2019 volume target reinforces market confidence and 2018 production volume of base liquor was up almost meeting 2020 target.It enjoys the highest profitability in distribution channel due to its scarcity nature and robust demand.9-Jan-2019 Larsen&Toubro LART.BO India Capital Goods Strong domestic execution and inflows pick up.Near-term inflow guidance still in reach while market concerns are overdone.5-Dec-2018 Luxshare Precision 002475.SZ China Capital Goods Strong execution and multiple growth drivers including continuous share gain in haptic business,increasing unit demand for wireless earphones,volume increase in wireless charging,rising type-C adoption,share/content gain in LCP/MPI antenna and etc.24-May-2018 Muang Thai(MTC)MTC.BK Thailand Diversified Financials Growth prospects are attractive given low penetration in underbanked market,and profitability is high.Regulatory uncertainty on interest rate ceiling has been dissipated.9-Jan-2019 Samsung Elec.005930.KS South Korea Technology Hardware&Equipment Bullish given DRAM inventory adjustment cycle should bottom by mid-2019;remedy to ensure memory semi cycle recovery is in place;smartphone business is undergoing product restructuring and foldable device will be launched in 1H19;capital returns to improve.6-Jun-2016 ST Engineering STEG.SI Singapore Capital Goods Operational improvement in its key businesses and earnings accretion from MRAS acquisition.Trading at low valuations despite strong earnings growth profile and attractive dividend yield.9-Jan-2019 Tencent 0700.HK China Media&Entertainment Expect 20%growth in online game in 2019 as monetization approval has been back into place.Online advertisement revenue will continue to grow at a fast speed,reaching 30%YoY growth in 2019 with support from Tencents social ecosystem.24-May-2018 TSMC 2330.TW Taiwan Semiconductors&Semiconductor Equipment We expect 2H19 cyclical rebound followed by the product cycles driving tech the past few years to resume in 2020.4-May-2018 2 Asia ex.Japan Focus ListAsia ex.Japan Focus List Valuations Source:The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service TM,Credit Suisse Note:Price as of 8th Jan 2019 Company Ticker Curr.Price Target Price Upside Rating P/E(x)PB(x)ROE(%)Yield(%)2018 2019 2018 2018 2018 BNI BBNI.JK IDR 8,900.00 9,600.00 8%O 10.8 9.4 1.6 14.5 2.3 China Gas Holdings 0384.HK HKD 25.95 39 50%O 16.2 12.9 3.8 23.8 1.8 China Merchants Bank 3968.HK HKD 28.55 37 30%O 7.8 6.9 1.2 16 3.9 China Tower 0788.HK HKD 1.55 1.83 18%O 73.9 42.1 1.3 1.5 0 COLI 0688.HK HKD 27 35 31%O 8.3 7 1 12.1 3 DBS DBSM.SI SGD 23.91 32.5 36%O 10.4 9.2 1.2 11.9 5 HDFC Bank HDBK.BO INR 2,102.85 2,500.00 19%O 26.8 22 3.9 14.5 0.8 Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS CNY 605 850 41%O 22.5 19.3 6.8 30.3 2.2 Larsen&Toubro LART.BO INR 1,381.90 1,700.00 23%O 21.2 18.7 3 14.1 1.7 Luxshare Precision 002475.SZ CNY 13.91 21.2 52%O 22.2 15.9 3.8 16.9 0.5 MTC MTC.BK THB 49 60 22%O 27.4 19.7 8.5 31.1 0.5 Samsung Elec.005930.KS KRW 38,100.00 53,000.00 39%O 5.9 7.2 1 17.3 3.7 ST Engineering STEG.SI SGD 3.55 4 13%O 20.4 17.5 4.8 23.4 4.2 Tencent 0700.HK HKD 315.6 410.97 30%O 34.9 27.5 8.1 23.4 0 TSMC 2330.TW TWD 211 250 18%O 15.6 15.6 3.3 21 3.8 3 Asia ex.Japan Focus List monthly performance since inceptionAsia ex.Japan Focus List monthly performance since inception Cumulative performance as of Dec 18 since inception-AxJ Focus List:51.7%-MXASJ:7.1%Source:The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service,Credit Suisse estimates-15.0-10.0-5.0-5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Apr14May14Jun14Jul14Aug14Sept14Oct14Nov14Dec14Jan15Feb15Mar15Apr15May15Jun15Jul15Aug15Sep15Oct15Nov15Dec15Jan16Feb16Mar16Apr16May16Jun16Jul16Aug16Sep16Oct16Nov16Dec16Jan17Feb17Mar17Apr17May17June17July17Aug17Sept17Oct17Nov17Dec17Jan18Feb18Mar18Apr18May18Jun18Jul18Aug18Sep18Oct18Nov18Dec18MXASJ Index Performance(%)AFL Performance(%)4 Asia ex.Japan Focus List Performance Asia ex.Japan Focus List Performance versus local indices and beta adjustedversus local indices and beta adjusted Source:Trade Ideas Monitor 12.5%7.7%10.7%-1.6%40.8%5.5%11.8%17.6%-2.6%40.2%14.3%7.7%8.3%0.5%39.7%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%2015201620172018Since inception(Apr 14)Rel.Ret(vs MXASJ)Rel.Ret(vs Stocks Local Country)Beta Adj.Ret(vs MSASJ)5 Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI.JK)Corporate-focused bank Rating:OUTPERFORM|Target:IDR 9,600(7.9%potential upside)Analyst:Laurensius Teiseran Market cap:US$11.62bn|6M ADTV:US$12.8mn PT Bank Negara Indonesia(Persero)Tbk is an Indonesia-based financial institution.It is engaged in commercial banking activities with particular focus on micro loans.Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates Source:Thomson Reuters,Credit Suisse research Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates BNI valuation relative to Mandiri BNI EPS growth YoY(%)6 INVESTMENT THESIS:BNI is the fourth-largest bank in Indonesia with a decent corporate and consumer business.Loan book is divided among SOE-corporate(20%of loans),private corporate(30%),SMEs(28.5%),consumer(17%)and the remaining from subsidiaries.BNI also has a good deposit franchise with 68%low-cost current/saving(CASA)deposits and enjoys the second-lowest cost of funding after BCA(Mandiri is marginally higher).With a network spanning over 1,781 branches and 14,157 ATMs,BNI has 9%of both loan/deposit market share.OUR VIEW:Under a new CEO,BNI did large provisioning in 2015 and is growing loans aggressively from 2016.This has got the market concerned but BNI contends that most of its loan growth is derived from government infrastructure projects,and are hence safer.We have taken a view that(1)Indonesia government has a record of saving SOEs,and(2)new loans are unlikely to turn bad unless the economy suffers a major downturn.BNI is currently trading at 22.3%discount to Mandiri on PE and 21.4%on PB for the similar ROA they generate;valuation dont look demanding in our view.CATALYSTS:The FY18 earnings which are likely to be reported on February could play as a positive catalyst for the share price performance.VALUATION:For target price calculation,we use the projected ROA of 2.05%(average of 2018-19E)and apply a normalised gearing of 8.0 x(vs projected 7.3x and 2018 7.3x),which gives us a normalised ROE of 15.3%.With a 13.9%cost of equity and“g”of 9%,the Gordon growth model leads us to a target price of Rp9,600,which implies a P/E of 10.2x 2019E.BNI ROA and ROE(%)Year 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Pre-pov Op profit(Rp bn)22,405.0 25,302.6 29,335.6 33,409.0 Net profit(Rp bn)13,616.5 15,237.0 17,472.6 19,743.3 EPS(CS adj.Rp)736.08 823.68 944.53 1,067-Change from prev.EPS(%)n.a.0.0 0.0 0.0-Consensus EPS(Rp)n.a.817.63 924.16 1,051 EPS growth(%)20.9 11.9 14.7 13.0 P/E(x)12.1 10.8 9.4 8.3 Dividend yield(%)2.1 2.3 2.7 3.0 BVPS(CS adj.Rp)5,330 5,692 6,431 7,262 P/B(x)1.67 1.56 1.38 1.23 ROE(%)14.7 14.9 15.6 15.6 ROA(%)2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 Tier 1 ratio(%)17.6 16.9 16.9 16.8 Financial and valuation metrics 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 16.2 19.0 18.3 11.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 14.7 14.7 -2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7201220132014201520162017 2018E 2019E 2020EROAROE(RHS)20.9 28.5 19.1 (15.8)25.1 20.9 11.9 14.7 13.0 (20.0)(15.0)(10.0)(5.0)-5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.02012(80.0)(70.0)(60.0)(50.0)(40.0)(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)-10.0 20.0 30.0BNI P/E discount to MandiriBNI P/B discount to Mandiri*Price as of 8th Jan 2019 close China Gas Holdings(0384.HK)All eyes on Northeastern China Rating:OUTPERFORM|Target:HK$39.0 (50%potential upside)Analyst:Dave Dai Market cap:US$17 bn|6M ADTV:US$25 mn China Gas Holdings is a natural gas services provider in China,principally engaged in the investment,construction and management of city gas pipeline infrastructure and distribution of natural gas.Source:CEIC,Credit Suisse estimates CGH:12-month forward P/E history Gas companies market shares in Northeast China Northeast gas demand vs Russian gas import 7 INVESTMENT THESIS:Russia gas is likely the biggest event in 2H19 for gas,lifting earnings for city gas in the North East.We estimated China Gas Holdings(CGH)has 37-42%market share in Heilongjiang and Liaoning(largest among peers).We have already incorporated the Russia benefits into our earnings forecasts,contributing single digit to mid-teens of CGHs total profits over next few years.We expect Chinas overall gas demand growth to be slightly lower in 2019E(+13%YoY vs.+15%in 2018E)on slower GDP growth.But given the offsetting factor of coal-gas conversion,industrial demand is unlikely to repeat the serious setback in 2015,in our view.Besides,CGH also has exposure to rural gas market,providing an extra growth driver in both new connections and gas sales.OUR VIEW:CGH is one of our China utilities top picks for 2019,as its fully diversified business mix offers strong protection against macro uncertainties and we expect the company to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming Russia gas starting 2H19E.CATALYSTS:Before Russia gas comes,we also expect clarity of demand allocation among the three Northeastern provinces,and CGH is likely to be one of the key beneficiaries.Besides,we also expect city gas to secure investments in new LNG terminals and imported contracts,helping improve their long-term dollar margins and lead to single-digit to low-teen earnings upside in 2021-25E.VALUATION:CGH now offers an appealing valuation,at 13x FY20E(March year-end)on the back of 23%FY19-21E EPS CAGR.Key downside risks are lower than expected connection fee margins and gas sales as well as slower than expected Northeastern ramp-up.Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates Source:Bloomberg,Company data,Credit Suisse estimates China GasENNKunlunCR GasLiaoning42%4%14%12%Jilin3%0%0%10%Heilongjiang37%0%17%8%Exposure to Northeast ChinaMarket share051015202530Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19(x)17.6x Avg+1SD12.7x Avg7.9x Avg-1SD22.5x Avg+2SD3.1x Avg-2SDn.a.73811266327%60%0%20%40%60%80%02040608010020162020E2025E(bcm)Russian gas importNortheast gas demandRussian gas as%of northeast demand(RHS)*Price as of 8th Jan 2019 close China Merchants Bank(3968.HK)Well-positioned for Chinas consumer credit growth Rating:OUTPERFORM|Target:HK$37.9 (30%potential upside)Analyst:Chung Hsu Market cap:US$92bn|6M ADTV:US$85.9mn CMB Co Ltd provides a wide range of commercial banking services including deposit,loan,bill discount,government bonds underwriting and trading,interbank lending,letter of credit,bank guarantee,and other related services.Source:TEJ,Credit Suisse estimates Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates We expect CMBs reserve to loan ratio to further rise to 4.7%in 2019,the highest level for the bank 8 INVESTMENT THESIS:CMB is one of the few banks under our coverage that is able to maintain a double-digit earnings growth and has the capacity to absorb 5-6%new NPL influx each year thanks to its strong core business profitability.OUR VIEW:We believe CMB is well-positioned for Chinas consumer credit growth on back of its leading consumer banking franchise and strong core business profitability.We believe the bank could maintain its loan growth at 9-10%for the next 2-3 years,mostly driven by higher-yielding retail loans(70%of its loan volume growth),which could help to contribute to the banks 5-10bps margin expansion.CATALYSTS:We believe the banks strong operating income growth of 10%in 2019 to be driven by better NIM(lower wholesale funding costs and favorable loan mix),10%+loan growth(continue to tilt to higher-yielding retail loans),and strong fees on continuous strength in credit card fees.VALUATION:CMB is trading at 6.7x FY19E P/E and 1.1x FY19E P/B on 15.8%ROE estimate.Our target price of HK$37.0 is based on the Gordon growth model,with 16.7%adjusted ROE(average ROE estimate for the bank after adjusted for minimum CET-1 requirement of 12%)and 12.2%COE.Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates We estimate the banks retail loans to contribute to over 70%of its loan volume growth in the next 2 years CMB is currently trading at 1.1x FY19E P/B,which is 0.7 stdev below its long term average Financial and valuation metrics20162017201820192020Year12/16A12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet profit(Rmb mn)62,08170,15080,66091,243 101,578EPS(reported)(Rmb$/sh)2.462.783.203.624.03EPS(IBES)(Rmb$/sh)2.462.783.183.614.06BVPS(Rmb$/sh)16.017.720.022.725.6ROE(%)16.215.815.715.815.7ROA(%)1.01.11.21.31.3P/B(x)1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 P/E(x)10.1 8.9 7.8 6.9 6.2 Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates*Price as of 8th Jan 2019 close China Tower Corporation(788.HK)A structural growth opportunity Rating:OUTPERFORM|Target:HK$1.83(18%potential upside)An