瑞信-美股-股票策略-不确定时期的股票投资策略-2019.1-54页.pdf

Thematic baskets:Stocks for uncertain times Credit Suisse(Hong Kong)Limited Manish Nigam +852 2101 7067 manish.nigamcredit- Vaibhav Jain +852 2101 7061 vaibhav.jaincredit- January 2019 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。A basket of quality-growth stocks,less exposed to macro uncertainties 2 Low macro visibility clouding the market outlook:While markets have rebounded YTD,uncertainties remain high.This raises the risk that markets remain volatile over the coming months.In our view,the primary concern for equity market investors relates to growth:The sharp downtick in Chinese growth in 2H18,decelerating US growth(fading tailwinds from tax breaks and rising rates)and,importantly,continuing uncertainty about the trade dispute.A hybrid approach:In this note,we use a hybrid approach(top-down screens combined with bottom-up inputs)to identify a basket of stocks that we believe is well suited to perform amid current uncertain times.We first narrow our initial list of 1,300 stocks down to 100 based on liquidity,ROE(over 10%)and EPS growth(two-year CAGR of 10-15%+)and then further whittle it down based on analyst inputs(on macro and valuations).CS analysts inputs on five parameters:Our analysts specifically provide their scores for the shortlisted companies on the following parameters:(1)sensitivity to US economic growth;(2)China economic growth;(3)exposure to the US-China tariff dispute;(4)fundamental strength of the companies business;and(5)valuations relative to history.We apply a HOLT filter too:In addition to using analysts inputs,we also apply a minimum Credit Suisse HOLT CFROI threshold to arrive at our final list of 33 stocks.This final basket of stocks scores highly on HOLTs quality and momentum scorecard,too.January 2019 A hybrid approach to identifying quality-growth stocks Top-down screening to narrow down to 100 names from 1,300 stocks 3 Step 1:Market cap and liquidity filters to arrive at first shortlist of 500+stocks:Out of a total coverage universe of 1,300 stocks across Asia Pacific,we select stocks with market cap of US$5 bn+,and 6M ADTV of US$5 mn+.In the case of ASEAN companies,we relax the criteria to include companies with slightly lower market cap and liquidity.Step 2:RoE and EPS CAGR filters help us reduce the list to 100 stocks:From this list,we select companies which offer a healthy EPS CAGR of 15%+over 2018-20E and at least an ROE of 10%.For some countries,we relax the criteria slightly as those countries(or representative sectors)are either in a mature growth phase,or are going through a cyclical weak phase.This exercise provides us with a list of 100 stocks.Well diversified list of stocks:In this list of 100 stocks,25%of stocks are from China/Hong Kong,followed by 20%from India and 10%each from Japan and Thailand.In terms of sector composition,25%of stocks are from the financials sector,followed by 17%from technology,16%from consumer staples and another 13%from consumer discretionary.We asked CS analysts to rate these 100 stocks on various macro,fundamentals and valuation parameters(see next slide).January 2019 A hybrid approach to identifying quality-growth stocks Analyst inputs and HOLT threshold yielded our final basket 4 Step 3:Analyst inputs:We asked our analysts to score the companies on the below parameters and then shortlisted companies with a score of 18+(out of a maximum of 25).#1:US revenue contribution:CS analysts provided scores from 5(best placed)to 1(most impacted)based on sensitivity to the US market.For example,a score of 5 implies 0-10%revenue exposure to US;a score of 1 implies 70-100%contribution.#2:Chinese economic growth:For non-China/HK stocks,an exposure of 70-100%to China revenues led to a score of 1,while 0-10%revenue exposure earned a score of 5.In the case of Chinese stocks,analysts provided their judgement on revenue sensitivity to Chinese economic growth(rather than contribution of China revenues).#3:US-China trade dispute:Companies exposed to the tariff dispute(for example,tech exports)scored low while those,which would not be impacted,scored higher.#4:Fundamental strength of the business:Companies/sectors which are structural growth stories(early growth stage;strong economic moat)scored high while those with weak sector dynamics(high competition,low entry barriers,etc.)scored low.#5:Valuation relative to history:Stocks trading at a significant premium to historical valuations scored lower,while those which have corrected sharply scored higher.Step 4:HOLT threshold:Finally,we chose stocks that sported at least a 10%CS HOLT CFROI for FY1(or at least 8%CFROI,if the two-year EPS CAGR was over 15%)and arrived at our final basket of 30 stocks.January 2019 5 Stocks for uncertain times Valuation table January 2019 Note:Priced as at 25-Jan-2019 close.Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates Mkt cap6M ADTOUpsideEPS CAGRP/EP/EP/BP/BEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDARoEDYHOLT CFROINameTickerCountrySectorCurr.US$bnUS$mn Price(LC)TP(LC)(%)Rat2018-20E20192020201920202019202020192019FY1ANZ Banking ANZ.AXAustraliaFinancialsAUD54 113 26 30 15%O11.2 11.0 9.9 1.2 1.2 NmNm12.1 6.3 10.9 CSL LtdCSL.AXAustraliaHealthcareAUD65 134 199 230 15%O17.0 28.6 24.7 9.9 8.1 20.2 17.8 34.9 1.6 14.9 James Hardie JHX.AXAustraliaMaterialsAUD5 27 15 21 38%O9.8 14.4 13.1 5.9 5.0 9.2 8.5 41.1 4.2 12.6 Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS ChinaCons.StaplesCNY127 427 680 850 25%O16.0 21.7 18.8 6.4 5.4 14.3 12.4 29.6 2.3 26.5 Haitian Flavouring 603288.SS ChinaCons.StaplesCNY29 41 73 82 12%O20.8 37.1 31.4 12.2 10.2 28.9 24.7 32.7 1.6 26.6 China Resources 0291.HKChinaCons.StaplesHKD11 32 28 40 45%O23.8 23.4 19.8 3.5 3.1 13.1 12.4 15.0 0.7 8.2 China Taiping0966.HKChinaFinancialsHKD10 29 20 28 38%O20.0 9.4 7.8 1.0 0.9 NmNm10.6 0.6 11.8 Ping An2318.HKChinaFinancialsHKD168 430 72 87 21%O13.2 9.9 8.7 2.0 1.8 NmNm19.5 3.5 16.8 TAL Education TAL.NChinaGlobal ServicesUSD17 47 31 37 20%O30.5 37.0 26.7 7.3 5.8 30.4 21.5 19.7 -9.9 Nari Technology600406.SS ChinaIndustrialsCNY13 25 20 24 23%O28.0 15.7 13.3 3.6 3.1 10.5 8.8 23.0 2.9 14.9 ZTO ExpressZTO.NChinaIndustrialsUSD13 11 17 25 43%O20.7 17.9 14.5 3.2 2.7 11.7 8.7 17.8 1.5 13.9 Tencent Holdings0700.HKChinaTechHKD417 1,099 344 411 20%O29.6 29.4 22.2 7.0 5.4 22.9 18.0 23.6 -22.4 BaiduBIDU.OQChinaTechUSD58 253 167 245 47%O18.7 16.0 11.9 2.2 1.9 15.1 11.3 13.6 -15.7 NetENTES.OQChinaTechUSD32 89 243 304 25%O34.0 19.1 14.8 3.5 3.0 20.3 13.5 18.1 1.3 8.7 China Gas 0384.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD16 28 25 39 53%O23.0 12.7 10.5 3.1 2.6 9.8 8.1 24.5 2.2 12.5 ENN Energy 2688.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD11 29 75 90 21%O22.3 12.3 10.1 2.8 2.3 8.0 6.8 23.0 2.1 11.5 Bosch Ltd.BOSH.BOIndiaCons.Disc.INR8 6 18,531 22,500 21%O24.5 25.6 21.5 4.4 3.7 16.7 13.9 17.1 0.6 9.6 Motherson Sumi MOSS.BOIndiaCons.Disc.INR7 17 151 200 33%O25.8 16.7 13.8 3.5 2.9 7.1 6.1 20.7 1.0 8.8 ITC LtdITC.BOIndiaCons.StaplesINR48 52 279 360 29%O14.0 23.7 20.9 4.3 3.6 17.1 15.0 18.4 2.4 15.5 Dabur IndiaDABU.BOIndiaCons.StaplesINR11 19 430 480 12%O17.9 41.6 35.5 11.7 10.4 36.0 31.3 28.3 1.4 16.8 HDFC BankHDBK.BOIndiaFinancialsINR80 97 2,110 2,500 18%O22.1 22.0 18.1 3.4 3.0 NmNm15.5 1.0 12.8 Astra InternationalASII.JKIndonesiaCons.Disc.IDR24 16 8,425 10,800 28%O14.6 12.4 11.2 2.3 2.0 8.5 8.0 18.4 3.2 8.3 Nidec6594.TJapanTechJPY35 121 13,055 19,500 49%O15.8 20.2 17.8 3.2 2.8 12.2 10.8 15.8 1.1 10.8 DBS Group DBSM.SISingaporeFinancialsSGD46 87 24 33 35%O10.4 9.4 8.7 1.2 1.1 NmNm12.6 5.4 11.4 ST EngineeringSTEG.SISingaporeMulti IndustrySGD8 10 3.68 4.00 9%O12.2 18.2 16.8 4.6 4.3 12.4 11.4 25.5 4.1 10.1 Coway021240.KS South Korea Cons.Disc.KRW5 14 80,300 94,000 17%O10.6 13.8 12.7 4.1 3.7 7.7 7.3 29.9 4.5 16.0 LG Household 051900.KS South Korea Cons.StaplesKRW17 38 1,203,000 1,370,000 14%O12.4 22.3 20.6 4.8 4.1 13.5 12.6 18.9 1.0 17.2 NCSOFT036570.KS South Korea TechKRW9 37 467,000 580,000 24%O48.4 13.7 10.4 3.4 2.8 9.7 7.5 24.9 2.8 14.6 Largan Precision3008.TWTaiwanTechTWD16 103 3,740 4,300 15%O12.4 18.4 16.3 4.0 3.4 11.5 10.1 21.7 2.0 19.4 Advantech 2395.TWTaiwanTechTWD5 5 231 275 19%O18.1 21.0 18.4 4.9 4.4 15.4 13.8 23.3 3.3 15.6 Thai BeverageTBEV.SIThailandCons.StaplesSGD14 11 0.74 0.84 14%O13.9 17.1 15.9 3.2 2.9 20.1 19.1 18.9 3.0 13.7 C.P.ALL CPALL.BKThailandCons.StaplesTHB22 71 77 84 9%O15.7 30.1 26.2 8.8 7.6 17.9 16.4 30.0 2.1 18.4 Muangthai CapitalMTC.BKThailandFinancialsTHB3 15 47 60 28%O34.4 19.2 14.8 6.1 4.5 NmNm31.7 0.8 31.0 6 Stocks for uncertain times Analysts scores on five parameters and price performance January 2019 Mkt cap6M ADTOCompanyTickerCountrySectorCurr.US$bnUS$mnUS growthChina growthTariff disputeFund.strengthValn v/s historyTotal score1M3M12MANZ Banking ANZ.AXAustraliaFinancialsAUD54 113 5533521.0 12.1 5.1 (8.6)CSL LtdCSL.AXAustraliaHealthcareAUD65 134 3544420.0 11.7 12.6 35.0 James Hardie JHX.AXAustraliaMaterialsAUD5 27 2524518.0 3.4 (19.8)(29.3)Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS ChinaCons.StaplesCNY127 427 5455322.0 21.4 11.4 (11.6)Haitian Flavouring 603288.SS ChinaCons.StaplesCNY29 41 5444219.0 11.9 12.6 31.3 China Resources 0291.HKChinaCons.StaplesHKD11 32 5355220.0 2.0 (0.7)(9.7)China Taiping0966.HKChinaFinancialsHKD10 29 5253318.0 (0.2)(19.3)(37.1)Ping An2318.HKChinaFinancialsHKD168 430 5254319.0 4.8 (1.3)(19.7)TAL Education TAL.NChinaGlobal ServicesUSD17 47 5453320.0 15.0 9.7 (8.8)Nari Technology600406.SS ChinaIndustrialsCNY13 25 5544422.0 6.4 11.5 8.5 ZTO ExpressZTO.NChinaIndustrialsUSD13 11 5343419.0 6.1 12.6 9.7 Tencent Holdings0700.HKChinaTechHKD417 1,099 5353420.0 10.7 32.2 (24.9)BaiduBIDU.OQChinaTechUSD58 253 5253318.0 2.5 (11.4)(34.2)NetENTES.OQChinaTechUSD32 89 5353420.0 (0.4)20.6 (26.4)China Gas 0384.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD16 28 5455322.0 (7.3)4.5 6.9 ENN Energy 2688.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD11 29 5454422.0 9.8 15.2 28.0 Bosch Ltd.BOSH.BOIndiaCons.Disc.INR8 6 5552421.0 (5.0)(0.3)(5.5)Motherson Sumi MOSS.BOIndiaCons.Disc.INR7 17 4543420.0 (7.8)0.0 (39.1)ITC LtdITC.BOIndiaCons.StaplesINR48 52 5553321.0 0.9 (0.5)(0.6)Dabur IndiaDABU.BOIndiaCons.StaplesINR11 19 5553119.0 1.5 8.1 23.0 HDFC BankHDBK.BOIndiaFinancialsINR80 97 5555323.0 (1.2)6.7 6.3 Astra InternationalASII.JKIndonesiaCons.Disc.IDR24 16 5554423.0 3.7 13.5 (3.4)Nidec6594.TJapanTechJPY35 121 3345318.0 8.6 (4.8)(27.6)DBS Group DBSM.SISingaporeFinancialsSGD46 87 5443.5521.5 4.0 4.8 (8.0)ST EngineeringSTEG.SISingaporeMulti IndustrySGD8 10 3545421.0 6.7 7.9 7.6 Coway021240.KS South Korea Cons.Disc.KRW5 14 5553321.0 5.7 (4.3)(17.8)LG Household 051900.KS South Korea Cons.StaplesKRW17 38 5354421.0 12.1 8.9 2.5 NCSOFT036570.KS South Korea TechKRW9 37 5544422.0 (1.4)14.0 9.8 Largan Precision3008.TWTaiwanTechTWD16 103 43.544.53.519.5 19.7 16.5 (1.3)Advantech 2395.TWTaiwanTechTWD5 5 3435419.0 10.0 12.1 (1.9)Thai BeverageTBEV.SIThailandCons.StaplesSGD14 11 5543421.0 27.6 18.4 (20.4)C.P.ALL CPALL.BKThailandCons.StaplesTHB22 71 5554423.0 12.0 21.2 (3.4)Muangthai CapitalMTC.BKThailandFinancialsTHB3 15 5554423.0 (1.0)(4.5)17.9 Analysts scores(5 implies best placed)Stock performance(%)Note:Priced as at 25-Jan-2019 close.Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates 7 HOLT Review January 2019 HOLT Review CFROI is more than twice that of the market 8 January 2019 Aggregate CFROI Profile(Research Basket HOLT net asset weighted)Aggregate CFROI Profile(Asia Pacific ex Japan HOLT net asset weighted)CFROI well above cost of capital:An aggregate view of the basket suggests that on a bottom-up basis,the analyst team has identified a group of companies with a CFROI well above that of the market and cost of capital.These companies have done so while also generating above-average asset growth.Source:Credit Suisse HOLT HOLT Review Favourable profile on the HOLT Scorecard 9 January 2019 The HOLT Scorecard uses three composite alpha factors to discern the Operational Quality of a firm,the market sentiment of its stock(Momentum),and the relative attractiveness of the current stock price(Valuation).A comparison of the basket to the market suggests that on a bottoms up basis the research team has been able to identify stocks that generally have favourable characteristics on the HOLT Scorecard.The chart to the left highlights that Operational Quality and Momentum are well ahead of that of the market.While Valuation appears to be more expensive,this is generally the price one pays for stocks with these strong fundamental characteristics.Portfolio:Research Basket equal weighted Benchmark:MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan weighted by market cap.This benchmark was chosen given that only one Japanese name is included in basket.Source:Credit Suisse HOLT HOLT Review Valuation premium over broader market has narrowed significantly 10 January 2019 HOLT P/E(x)The chart on the left further compares the HOLT P/E multiple of the basket to the broader market.With the sharp share price correction,HOLT P/E has fallen from 29.3x in Jan-2018 to 21.7x currently.Relative to the broader market,the valuation premium of the basket now stands at 27%,narrower than its ten-year median of 34%and peak Jan-2018 premium of 52%,suggesting that the group of companies now trades more cheaply than is typical.HOLT P/E premium(%)Note:HOLT P/E multiples are net asset weighted.Source:Credit Suisse HOLT HOLT Review Quality at any price and eCAP companies are well represented in the basket 11 January 2019 Classifying the companies along our HOLT investment styles,one fifth of the companies are in Quality at any Price,which are companies with higher CFROI and stronger earnings revisions compared to peers.These stocks typically also trade at a premium.We also note that almost a third of the portfolio consists of eCAP companies;these are companies that have the best track record of maintaining high and persistent economic returns over time.Across the HOLT database of over 20,000 companies,only around 6-8%of our companies are classified as eCAP or Quality at any Price.Note:eCAP is a HOLT acronym for empirical competitive advantage period.To earn an eCAP award,a firm must generate CFROI equal to or above 8%for five years,have low CFROI volatility,and show low decay(or mean-reversion)in profitability.List is sorted in market cap order.Source:Credit Suisse HOLT.eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP eCAP HOLT Review Basket names ranked by HOLT Overall Scorecard SCORE 12 January 2019 The basket has above-average characteristics on the HOLT Scorecard which equally weights the three HOLT alpha factors.Those names that do score poorly generally have above-average Quality characteri