Thematicbaskets:StocksforuncertaintimesCreditSuisse(HongKong)LimitedManishNigam+85221017067manish.nigam@credit-suisse.comVaibhavJain+85221017061vaibhav.jain@credit-suisse.comJanuary2019DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。Abasketofquality-growthstocks,lessexposedtomacrouncertainties2Lowmacrovisibilitycloudingthemarketoutlook:WhilemarketshavereboundedYTD,uncertaintiesremainhigh.Thisraisestheriskthatmarketsremainvolatileoverthecomingmonths.Inourview,theprimaryconcernforequitymarketinvestorsrelatestogrowth:ThesharpdowntickinChinesegrowthin2H18,deceleratingUSgrowth(fadingtailwindsfromtaxbreaksandrisingrates)and,importantly,continuinguncertaintyaboutthetradedispute.Ahybridapproach:Inthisnote,weuseahybridapproach(top-downscreenscombinedwithbottom-upinputs)toidentifyabasketofstocksthatwebelieveiswellsuitedtoperformamidcurrentuncertaintimes.Wefirstnarrowourinitiallistof~1,300stocksdownto~100basedonliquidity,ROE(over~10%)andEPSgrowth(two-yearCAGRof10-15%+)andthenfurtherwhittleitdownbasedonanalystinputs(onmacroandvaluations).CSanalysts’inputsonfiveparameters:Ouranalystsspecificallyprovidetheirscoresfortheshortlistedcompaniesonthefollowingparameters:(1)sensitivitytoUSeconomicgrowth;(2)Chinaeconomicgrowth;(3)exposuretotheUS-Chinatariffdispute;(4)fundamentalstrengthofthecompanies’business;and(5)valuationsrelativetohistory.WeapplyaHOLTfiltertoo:Inadditionto...
