瑞信-2019全球股票投资策略-2019.1.31-101页.pdf

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.31 January 2019GlobalEquity ResearchThematic Research Global Equity Themes THEMEThe Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients.Research AnalystsEugene Klerk44 20 7883 4678eugene.klerkcredit-Richard Kersley44 20 7888 0313richard.kersleycredit-Bahar Sezer Longworth44 20 7883 4315bahar.sezercredit-Fin Williams44 20 7883 1734findlay.williamscredit-Investing for Growth 5.0This fifth edition of our primer for thematic investing highlights the prospects of eight themes that we believe offer structural GDP-plus top-line growth.The macro cycle suggests that such growth remains a scarce commodity.We also review our two core investment approaches,one using Credit Suisse HOLT and one based on our analysts key selections(our Thematic 30).Quality and Momentum drive our theme and stock selection.Our most preferred themes are Big Data,Healthy Living and Ageing.Infrastructure and New Energy remain our two lowest-ranked themes,although Infrastructure would be ranked third if valuation was included.Theme investing.Our systematic approach of picking HOLTs above-average Quality and Momentum companies within our three top-ranked themes outperformed the MSCI AC World index by 790 bps in 2018,taking the total outperformance since November 2014 to 3860bps.We believe robust growth with upside can be found in our tech-related themes.Relative to global equities,(consumer)tech companies tend to have:i)superior growth,ii)net cash positions,iii)better margins and cash flow returns,iv)low headcount,and v)pricing power.Themes in focus are The Asian consumer,which we believe should prove relatively insulated from disruption caused by a multipolar world.We summarise work on Adjuvant Immuno-oncology from our pharma team and highlight key stocks exposed to this US$29bn potential opportunity.Finally,we consider the theme of 5G,specifically when it is likely to generate broad-based growth,and highlight key exposed companies across the supply chain.Figure 1:Overall our themes score better than MSCI ACWI on earnings(cons.EPS growth 18-20)and cash flow(HOLT growth percentile)0%5%10%15%20%Consumer ConnectivityContentAutomationBig DataHealthy LivingAgeingInfrastructureNew EnergyMSCI ACWI876159776167464550GPSource:Thomson Reuters,Credit Suisse HOLT*GP=Growth Percentile score每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。31 January 2019Global Equity Themes2Table of contentsInvesting for growth our core themes3Executive summary4Thematic investing:our approach6Key Focus Articles17I Finding medium-term growth opportunities18II Asia in transition:Undisrupted growth26III 5G:An Infrastructure theme with momentum31IV Adjuvant Immuno-Oncology37Our core growth themes42I Consumer Connectivity43II Content46III Automation49IV Big Data51V Ageing54VI Healthy Living57VII Infrastructure59VIII New Energy61Appendix A:Theme Scatters63Appendix B:Small Cap Theme Exposure78The team wishes to acknowledge the contributions made to this report by Akanksha Kharbanda and Amit Philips,employees of CRISIL Global Research and Analytics,a business division of CRISIL Limited,a third-party provider of research services to Credit Suisse.31 January 2019Global Equity Themes3Investing for growth our core themesFigure 2:Key Summary of our Core Growth Themes Consumer ConnectivityOur theme of consumer connectivity covers the entire supply chain exposed to the B-2-C online experience.This therefore relates to all companies that enable consumers to transact online.The drivers for this theme include i)access:wireline and more importantly wireless access continues to rise globally,ii)greater spending power(especially in case of EM)and iii)increased convenience(which includes an expanding online product and service offering as well as more advanced delivery optionality)Big DataDigital data creation continues to grow exponentially which makes Data Analytics the most compelling component of our Big Data theme.At the forefront are Data or Cyber Security and Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.Looking ahead,the viability of 5G wireless connections will become a key future catalyst for the theme as network bandwidth and transmission velocity is significantly enhanced.ContentOur Content theme focusses on 3 specific areas of,largely,digital content:Audio&Video,Gaming and Education.Growth in global music streaming continues to gain momentum and notably,EM potential is largely untapped with Brazil,Russia,India,China and Indonesia representing 10%of the total market.Looking ahead,the sustainability of streaming growth and strategic deals under way will be a focus.Gaming growth is secular as younger consumers move away from traditional TV and Sports viewing towards gaming and Esports.Tighter regulation,however,has challenged growth prospects more recently.Demand for online education is supported by consumers located in emerging markets.We see further upside from a growing need to retrain employees in DM as automation increasingly disrupts more traditional labor markets.AutomationThe theme of automation is closely associated with robotics and industrial end markets.Demand for robots and the industrial Internet of Things continue to grow,mitigating labour cost inflation over the long run and driving the theme.Increasingly,however,we also note that automation and robotics in particular become increasingly relevant in other end markets including healthcare and consumer.Chinese suppliers for robots remain a threat to incumbent international OEMs.Cobots are also gaining traction.Risks ahead include short-cycle momentum rolling over and related tech capex slowing down.AgeingThe long-term drivers for ageing are increasing life expectancy coupled with a decline in fertility rates.Both drivers impact demographics across developed and emerging markets,making this a truly global theme.End markets impacted by this are many,including medical devices(hearing aids,dental implants and reconstructive implants),managed care facilities and private hospitals but also financial services including asset managers and insurance companies.We have a particular focus on companies exposed to EM as the rate of ageing there is stronger than in DM and EM generally have less developed public support systems(e.g.healthcare funding or pension systems),requiring greater private involvement.Healthy LivingObesity worldwide has tripled since 1975,driven by growing spending power,a change from a manufacturing to a(less physically intense)service economy,increasing per capita calorie intake and worsening diets more generally.Regulation remains a key issue as governments around the world introduce legislation such as sugar taxes in order to change consumer behavior.The need and/or desire to start leading a healthier lifestyle supports companies exposed to areas such as healthy food,sporting goods and fitness equipment&gyms.InfrastructureOur infrastructure theme covers four areas:Power,Transport,Buildings and Communication.Transport infrastructure typically receives most interest not least owing to the need to replace or repair ageing infrastructure in DM and a requirement of building first generation infrastructure assets in EM.Both require significant initial and ongoing capital commitments.Regulatory uncertainties,however,make transport infrastructure a challenge for DM.We believe that the outlook for Communication infrastructure(not least because of the topic of 5G)is more promising.Overall though we highlight that the growth dynamics for the theme,although secular,are less dynamic than for some of our other themes.New EnergyGlobal warming coupled with growing demand for energy out of EM provide the backdrop for our theme of New Energy which covers Energy Efficiency,Renewables and Energy Storage.The expectation that cleaner power generation technologies will soon be cheaper than traditional fossil-fuel based technologies underpins the investment case for the theme,in our view.Energy storage technologies also continue to develop,which in our view will improve its characteristics and cost of storage.This will change the business of power generation and supply and traditional utility business models.Looking ahead,we see a move to competitive tendering helping to lower prices and a combination of batteries and wind/solar which will optimize power flows.Source:Credit Suisse research 31 January 2019Global Equity Themes4Executive summaryInvesting for Growth 5.0This publication of Investing for Growth is the fifth in our series on investing in themes that we believe should offer structural,long term,GDP-plus top line growth.The core of our work is based on a disciplined investment framework that aims to identify which of our growth themes have the most attractive investment characteristics on a 12-month horizon.By applying the HOLT back-tested factors of Quality and Momentum,we also highlight which companies within our most preferred themes have the most compelling here and now characteristics.We also select our analysts 30 most preferred stocks across all themes in what we call the Thematic 30 list.Our most preferred themes here and nowEquity market volatility rose sharply in H2 of last year,which had a clear impact on average Momentum readings for our themes.Based on year-end data,we find that the theme of Big Data/AI still ranks highest,followed by Healthy Living,then Ageing.Figure 14 highlights the key companies exposed to these themes.Infrastructure and New Energy remain our two lowest-ranked themes on Quality and Momentum;however,we note that Infrastructure would be ranked third if we included valuation as a parameter.Figure 20 highlights the best scoring infrastructure stocks on Quality,Momentum and Valuation.5G:Who benefits and when?Within the theme of infrastructure we explore the topic of 5G.We expect 5G-related investments to rise going forward but a full-scale consumer deployment is still years away.Key companies across the 5G supply chain are shown in Figure 49.Quality and Momentum drove 790bps of outperformance in 2018With the caveat that past performance is no guarantee of future returns,we note that our wholly systematic investment approach which selects companies within the three best-rated themes on Quality and Momentum characteristics outperformed the MSCI AC World index by 790bps last year,taking the total outperformance since launch at the end 2014 to almost 3900bps.Our Thematic-30 approach,however,underperformed the MSCI AC World index by 300bps last year,a drawdown that was mainly driven by the September-November period.Is this still a market for tech-exposed growth themes?The rank of Consumer Connectivity dropped to fifth,the lowest score since launch of our approach,as B-2-C internet stocks sold off in H2 of 2018.Some investors may believe that a mix of valuation and rising bond yields,rising cost pressures and the rising threat of protectionism suggest that technology-exposed growth might continue to underperform.Reasons we disagree include the fact that(consumer)tech companies tend to have:i)net cash positions,ii)superior growth expectations,iii)superior margins and cash flow returns,iv)low headcount and v)pricing power.Figure 38 highlights companies across our tech themes that score best on five metrics.Asian consumer spending:Undisrupted growth in a multi-polar worldDevelopments such as the ongoing US-China trade issues and Brexit suggest that the world is moving towards a multipolar setting,which in turn implies that growth is likely to become more challenging as supply chains come under pressure.One of the more insulated demand stories from these developments is that of the Asian,or emerging,consumer.Areas where this is likely to have the biggest impact include companies exposed to the areas of:Middle class lifestyle,Healthcare and ageing,Financial services,Internet&disruptive technology and Renewable energy&infrastructure.Figure 41 highlights key Asian companies exposed to these themes.31 January 2019Global Equity Themes5The Thematic 30Figure 3:Outperform-rated key ideas by theme NewCompany NameMarket Cap(USD Bn)Operational QualityMomentumValuationGrowth PercentileConditional ProbabilityInvestment CaseBig DataMicrosoft789.18092528564We highlight Microsoft given the ubiquity of its application portfolio coupled with a rapidly growing ocean of customer data.SAP125.37851476853SAPs cloud revenues are now materially bigger than licence and cloud margins themselves are starting to improve,supporting a positive margin outlook.Salesforce112.97486109820Salesforce is a partner of choice for digital transformation and its outperformance is driven by broad based demand across all clouds,end markets and geographics.Experian22.47848196318We think the company,a provider of Big Data solutions and technologies,can sustain organic growth over the next few years and examine new markets that can increase revenue.Healthy LivingAdidas AG45.36681447236Technology developments are transforming the scale and profitability of the sporting goods market.Going online,via Wholesale,will be sales and margin accretive.lululemon athletica22.07694299849As a yoga-focused athletic apparel company,lululemon athletica provides a direct play on our theme.We believe the company will benefit from strong product momentum.China Mengniu Dairy12.4565918803We believe Mengnius,one of Chinas biggest manufacturer and distributor of dairy products,has potential for continued market share gain and net margin expansions,with overall healthy demand for dairy.JD Sports5.08367647563We highlight JD Sports improving LFLs in its core business,better product-driven performance and improved customer satisfaction.AgeingPing An157.086777490naThe stock remains a long-term core holding in the Chinese insurance space for sector-leading RoEV,solid OPAT trend,and tech-powered profitability.AIA Group103.382494885naAs Asian consumers are increasingly relying on life insurance for retirement planning purposes,the companys Premier Agency strategy will differentiate itself from its peers.Sonova Holding11.18047398139The growth profile of the hearing device sector will be impacted by ageing.The companys latest Phonak Marvel product suite could close the growth gap to competition.Straumann10.78771189511We see an attractive buying opportunity with several new products in the core dental implant franchis