全球能源机构141页电动汽车报告+2030规模破亿.pdf

Towards cross-modal electrificationGlobal EV Outlook2018IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinland FranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew Zealand NorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA.OECD/IEA,2018International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgPlease note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries,7 association countries and beyond.The four main areas of IEA focus are:n Energy Security:Promoting diversity,efficiency,flexibility and reliability for all fuelsand energy sources;n Economic Development:Supporting free markets to foster economic growth andeliminate energy poverty;n Environmental Awareness:Analysing policy options to offset the impactof energy production and use on the environment,especially fortackling climate change and air pollution;andn Engagement Worldwide:Working closely with associationand partner countries,especially major emerging economies,to find solutions to shared energy and environmental concerns.TogetherSecureSustainable OECD/IEA 2018 Global EV Outlook 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|3 Acknowledgements Global EV Outlook 2018 was developed and prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy Agency(IEA),under the direction of Dave Turk,Acting Director of STO.Pierpaolo Cazzola co-ordinated this project.This report was collectively developed by(in alphabetical order):Till Bunsen,Pierpaolo Cazzola,Marine Gorner,Leonardo Paoli,Sacha Scheffer,Renske Schuitmaker,Jacopo Tattini and Jacob Teter.It benefited from the support provided by Simon Bennett,Emanuele Bianco,Paul Hugues,George Kamiya,Sarbojit Pal,Kate Palmer,Apostolos Petropoulos and Oliver Schmidt.In addition,Jian Liu(Energy Research Institute,China)provided extensive support regarding Chinas data,policies and EV market development during the preparation of this report.Bertrand Sadin assisted with the graphic design.Several in-depth interviews were conducted to help obtain more detailed information on specific topics.Valuable input was received from Haakoen Gloeersen(Siemens),Antti Lajunen(Aalto university,Finland),Zoe Yang(Xcharge)and Edison Yin(BYD).The following individuals have contributed to developing the activities of the Electric Vehicles Initiative(EVI)on behalf of their governments through providing data and assistance,and reviewing this report:Carol Burelle(Canada),Aaron Hoskin(Canada),Paula Vieira(Canada),Ren-Pierre Allard(Canada),Yong Jin(the Peoples Republic of China hereafter“China”),Lijin Zhao(China),Shuhua Jiang(China),Chengxi Li(China),Guofang Liu(China),Jinchen Gua(China),Zheng Yali(China),Pentti Puhakka(Finland),Nils-Olof Nylund(Finland),Mikko Pihlatie(Finland),Cdric Messier(France),Maude Premillieu(France),Clarisse Durand(France),Gereon Meyer(Germany),Birgit Hofmann(Germany),Abhay Bakre(India),Pravin Agrawal(India),Ishan Jain(India),Harish Sikri(India),Vishvajit Sahay(India),Raj Kumar Singh(India),Zuiou Ashihara(Japan),Santiago Creuheras(Mexico),Vctor Ziga(Mexico),Maria Ramos(Mexico),Leonardo Beltrn(Mexico),Sonja Munnix(the Netherlands),Jannis Rippis(Norway),Asbjrn Johnsen(Norway),Havard Grothe Lien(Norway),Martin Palm(Sweden),Peter Kasche(Sweden),Tim Ward(United Kingdom),Rob Gould(United Kingdom),Bob Moran(United Kingdom),Russel Conklin(United States)and David Howell(United States).Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report.They include:Patrik Akerman(Siemens),Laurent Antoni(French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission),Debashish Bhattacharjee(UN Habitat),Robert Bienenfeld(American Honda),Tomoko Blech(CHAdeMO),David Brocas(Glencore),Remzi Can Samsun(Forschungszentrum Jlich),Romain Capaldi(Navigant),Anri Cohen(BP),Marcello Contestabile(E4tech Ltd),Santiago Creuheras(Mexicos Ministry of Energy),Jos Dings(Tesla(Europe),Elizabeth Endler(Shell),Miguel Fernandez Astudillo(University of Sherbrooke),Peter Fitzmaurice(Industrial Minerals),Diego Garcia Carvajal(European Copper Institute),Bogdan Gagea(BP),Nancy Garland(U.S.Department of Energy),Marjan Gjelaj(Technical University of Denmark),Mattias Goldmann(Fores),Ichiro Gonda(NGK Spark Plug),Andrew Gunn(British Geological Survey),Hans Christian Haag(Bosch),Dale Hall(ICCT),Maija Halme(Fortum),Colin Hamilton(BMO Capital Markets),Gavin Harper(University of Birmingham),Auke Hoesktra(Technische Universiteit Eindhoven),Cabell Hodge(United States),Kaoru Horie(Honda),Cornie Huizenga(SloCaT),Cyrille Jouin(Glencore Ni Department),Hiroyuki Kaneko(Nissan),Monika Kuusela(Fortum),Marcel Meeus(SUSTESCO),Nguyen Khac-Tiep(UNIDO retired),Alex Koerner(UNEP),Max Kofod(Shell),Atsushi Kurosawa(The Institute of Applied Energy),Antti Lajunen(Aalto University(Finland),Francisco Laveron(Iberdrola),Magnus Lindgren(Swedish Transport Administration),Jochen Global EV Outlook 2018 OECD/IEA 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|4 Linen(Forschungszentrum Jlich),Felix Maire(S&P Global Platts Analytics),Nicolas Meilham(Gavin&Harper),Josh Miller(ICCT),Christine Mounaim-Rousselle(University of Orleans),Benjamin Munzel(Ecofys-A Navigant Company),Matteo Muratori(United States),Todd Onderdonk(ExxonMobil),Claire Painter(Climateworks Australia),Sarbojit Pal(CEM),Evi Petavratzi(British Geological Survey),Julia Poliscanova(Transport&Environment),Sture Portvik(City of Oslo),Michael Rex(EE Energy Engineers),Sandra Roling(The Climate Group),Gen Saito(Nissan),Jon Salkeld(BP),Raphael Sauter(European Commission),Alex Shiao(Toray Industries,Inc.Battery Separator Film Dept.),Naotaka Shibata(TEPCO CHAdeMO promotion),Somnath Sinha(ExxonMobil),Fabrice Stassin(EMIRI),Jon Stenning(Cambridge Econometrics),Marco Tepper(BSW Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.V.),Charlie Webb(Morgan Stanley),Harm Weken(FIER),Mark Wenzel(California),Martina Wikstrm(Swedish Energy Agency),Akira Yabe(New Energy&Industrial Technology Development Organization),Kazuhiro Yamada(Toray Industries),Xiaowen Yue(PetroChina)and Victor Ziga(Mexicos Ministry of Energy).IEA reviewers included Dave Turk,Cecilia Tam,Laura Cozzi,Timur Gl,Apostolos Petropoulos,Paul Hugues,Simon Bennett,Sarbojit Pal,Rebecca Gaghen and Laszlo Varro.The report was edited by Debra Justus.The development of this report was facilitated by country contributions to the IEA for the co-ordination of the Electric Vehicles Initiative.OECD/IEA 2018 Global EV Outlook 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|5 Table of Contents Executive summary.9 1.Introduction.15 Electric Vehicles Initiative.15 The EV3030 campaign.16 Content and scope.16 2.Vehicles.19 Cars and light commercial vehicles.19 Stock.19 Sales and market shares.20 Market drivers.22 Key policy updates.23 Two-and three-wheelers.27 Low-speed electric vehicles.29 Medium-and heavy-duty road electric vehicles.29 EV deployment targets.33 ICE vehicle bans and access restrictions.35 Increasing relevance of electrification in OEM strategies.37 3.Electric vehicle supply equipment(EVSE).41 Charging standards.41 Current status.41 Recent developments.43 Use of standards across different modes.43 EVSE development and availability.44 Private chargers.45 Publicly accessible chargers.46 Policy support:Key updates.47 National and supra-national measures.47 Local policies.51 Initiatives from private sector stakeholders.53 4.Energy demand and emissions.55 Current impact of EVs on energy demand.55 Energy demand and change in oil demand.55 Emissions.58 Greenhouse gases.58 Local air pollutants.59 5.Batteries.61 Current status.61 Global EV Outlook 2018 OECD/IEA 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|6 Cost and performance drivers.62 Battery chemistry.62 Manufacturing capacity.63 Battery size.64 Charging speed.64 Technology development prospects.65 Cost estimates.66 Light-duty vehicles.66 Other transport modes.67 Implications of battery technology developments for EV uptake.68 LDVs.68 Two-wheel vehicles.72 Urban buses.73 Trucks.74 6.Outlook to 2030.77 Definition of the scenarios.77 Electric vehicles.77 Global results.77 Regional insights.82 Battery capacity.85 Material demand.86 Nickel.87 Cobalt and lithium.87 Electric vehicle supply equipment deployment.89 Private charging infrastructure for LDVs.90 Publicly accessible LDV and bus charging infrastructure.90 Impacts on energy demand and CO2 emissions.93 Implications for well-to-wheel GHG emissions.95 CO2 emission estimates and savings.96 7.Policy considerations.99 Introduction and structure .99 Ensuring that the policy environment is conducive to increased EV uptake.100 Promoting public procurement.100 Bridging the price gap.101 Supporting the deployment of chargers.102 National polices to regulate emissions.104 Local initiatives to regulate access.105 Seizing opportunities from Mobility as a Service(MaaS).106 Complementing fuel taxes with road pricing.106 Achieving demand-and business-driven EVSE development.106 Ensuring that EVs are effectively integrated in the electricity grid.107 Managing changes in material demand from EV batteries.108 Maximising the economic value of batteries while ensuring their environmental.sustainability.109 OECD/IEA 2018 Global EV Outlook 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|7 Statistical annex.111 Electric car stock.111 New electric car sales.113 Market share of electric cars.114 Electric vehicle supply equipment stock.116 References.119 Acronyms,abbreviations and units of measure.143 List of figures Figure 2.1 Passenger electric car stock in major regions and the top-ten EVI countries.19 Figure 2.2 Electric car sales and market share in the top-ten EVI countries and Europe,2013-17.21 Figure 2.3 Heavy-duty electric truck models announced for commercialization(GVW 15 tonnes).33 Figure 3.1 Global EV charging outlets,2010-17.44 Figure 3.2 Electric car stock and publicly accessible charging outlets by type and country,2017.46 Figure 3.3 Ratio of publicly accessible charging outlets per electric car for selected countries,2017.47 Figure 3.4 Number of highway charging stations and distribution targets in selected regions.48 Figure 3.5 Recent investment announcements for EV infrastructure development in selected countries.49 Figure 3.6 Examples of recent policy instruments promoting charging infrastructure deployment in major cities.52 Figure 4.1 Total electricity demand from EVs by country,2017.55 Figure 4.2 Road traffic and power demand profile during an average weekday.56 Figure 4.3 CO2 emissions avoided due to EVs worldwide,2017.59 Figure 5.1 Lithium-ion storage technology price developments.61 Figure 5.2 Effect of change in battery chemistry on costs.62 Figure 5.3 Effect of changes in size and manufacturing scale on battery costs.64 Figure 5.4 Expected battery technology commercialisation timeline.66 Figure 5.5 Comparative total cost of ownership of a different sized BEV and ICE at three battery price levels.70 Figure 5.6 Comparative total cost of ownership of a PHEV and ICE at three battery price levels.71 Figure 5.7 Comparative total cost of ownership of an electric and an ICE two-wheeler.72 Figure 5.8 Total cost of ownership gap between ICE(diesel)and electric buses.73 Figure 5.9 Total cost of ownership versus driving range at various battery pack costs for medium and heavy freight trucks.75 Figure 6.1 Global EV stock by scenario,2017-30.78 Figure 6.2 Comparison of scenario projections and manufacturers targets for electric LDVs,2017-30.81 Figure 6.3 EV market share by type and scenario in selected regions,2030.83 Figure 6.4 Battery demand for EVs to 2030 by scenario.86 Global EV Outlook 2018 OECD/IEA 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|8 Figure 6.5 Cobalt and lithium demand,2017 and 2030.89 Figure 6.6 Publicly accessible charger to electric LDV ratios by region split in lower,central,and upper scenarios(2017 and 2030).92 Figure 6.7 Global LDV private chargers and publicly accessible LDV and bus chargers by scenario(2017-30).93 Figure 6.8 Electricity demand attributable to EVs by mode,region and scenario,2030.95 Figure 6.9 Power generation mix and carbon intensity by region,2017 and 2030.96 Figure 6.10 GHG emissions from electric vehicles.97 List of tables Table 2.1 Minimum range requirements and credits per electric vehicle under Chinas NEV credit system.24 Table 2.2 Announced country targets and objectives for EV deployment,2020-30.34 Table 2.3 Announced sales bans for ICE vehicles.36 Table 2.4 Announced access restriction mandates in local jurisdictions.36 Table 2.5 OEM announcements related to electric cars.38 Table 2.6 Announcements by OEMs related to curbing or halting production of diesel ICE cars.39 Table 3.1 Overview of the EVSE characteristics in the main regions.42 Table 3.2 Publicly accessible highway charging deployment objectives by selected companies and manufacturing consortia.53 Table 5.1 Sample of main operational and announced Li-ion battery factories.63 Table 6.1 Overview of critical material intensity of key battery chemistries .87 List of boxes Box 2.1 Fuel-cell electric vehicle stock status.20 Box 2.2 Electrification of light commercial vehicles:The of case of Deutsche Post DHL and StreetScooter.20 Box 2.3 Use of public procurement programmes to stimulate the initial roll-out of EVs.22 Box 2.4 Why are electric two-wheelers widespread in China and not in other parts of Asia?.28 Box 3.1 State of FCEV refuelling infrastructure.41 Box 3.2 Workplace charging stations.54 Box 4.1 Grid implications of EVs.56 OECD/IEA 2018 Global EV Outlook 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page|9 Executive summary New electric vehicle sales Sales of new electric cars1 worldwide surpassed 1 million units in 2017 a record volume.This represents a growth in new electric car sales of 54%compared with 2016.Electric cars accounted for 39%of new car sales in Norway in 2017 the worlds most advanced market of electric cars in terms of sales share.2 Iceland and Sweden,the next two most successful markets,achieved 11.7%and 6.3%electric car sales share,respectively,in 2017.3 More than half of global sales of electric cars were in the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter,“China”),where electric cars had a market share of 2.2%in 2017.Electric cars sold in the Chinese market more than doubled the amount delivered in the United States,the second-largest electric car market globally.Electrification of oth