瑞信-亚太地区-科技行业-亚洲科技业：推动CY20智能手机、数据中心、PC等应用半导体采购-2019.12.4-68页.pdf

Technology sector Asia Feedback(Semiconductor/SPE):Bringing forward CY20 procurement of semiconductors for smartphone,data center,PC and other applications Technology|Comment Event:In late November,we conducted our periodical Asia market survey.Plans to produce over 500mn 5G chipsets in CY20,confirmed in our September survey,have been joined by the 5G production plans of smartphone makers,and demand forecasts for 5G-related parts have risen sharply at various points along the supply chain.It seems the 5G smartphone capex that we had anticipated over CY20 and CY21will be implemented all at once through 1H 2020.We had been seeing a risk that memory prices would decline owing to a seasonal adjustment in demand from late November.Now,however,we do not expect any adjustments in demand through 1Q CY20 and look for a surge in demand to materialize from mid-CY20 in 2H,on concerns about tighter supply conditions throughout the supply chain and robust restocking demand as companies hedge against the risk of higher memory prices in CY20.We therefore see less risk of a correction in semiconductor market conditions thanks to upturns in advance demand for 5G and restocking demand in 1H CY20,but remain aware that the risk of a 5G-related snapback in demand could materialize in 2H.Newly confirmed points in our survey:Positives include:(1)Production plans have been upwardly revised for 5G smartphones to 470480mn units in CY20.(2)Demand is up for DRAM at Google and Microsoft(restocking demand).(3)The decline in prices for server DRAM for datacenters is expected to slow in 1Q CY20(down 510%in 4Q but only 15%in 1Q),as buyers prioritize securing volume over prices.(4)Samsung Electronics LSI lines are operating at full capacity for 200mm/300mm wafers,with supply especially tight for CISs.Demand is strong for 5G chipsets,RFICs,PMICs,and OLED driver ICs.(5)The A15 application processor for new CY21 iPhone models will have more EUV layers than the A14.(6)Intel is mulling whether to outsource production of GPUs and AI processors to TSMC.(7)Flagship models by Samsung Mobile and Huawei will feature LP DDR5,and Apples plans call for iPhone use in CY22.(8)Samsung Electronics plans to invest in expanding DRAM and NAND memory production capacity at Pyeongtaek Fab2 and Xian Fab2.(9)Samsung Electronics LSI lines may be expanded,with more investment in 300mm in response to tighter supply-demand conditions(expansion in Korea,new Fab2 facilities in Austin,Texas).(10)Demand is recovering for microcomputers and power semiconductors for inverter air conditioners.Negatives include:(1)Huawei continues to procure semiconductors,keeping inventories high while waiting for a resolution to US-China trade friction.(2)The Cooper Lake server CPU will now be released in 2H CY20,for another delay of six months.(3)NAND inventories are excessive for retail channels.(4)Smartphone makers are considering a reduction in NAND density to speed up the replacement cycle.(5)WFE investment is forecast to drop 50%at SK Hynix and Kioxia in CY20(a cut of over$5bn between the two groups).(6)There is no sign of a bottoming-out in capex related to the industrial machinery and automobile sectors.Investment implications:We project demand will remain higher than the seasonal norm in the semiconductor supply chain through 1Q CY20,with growing demand for 5G smartphones and memory restocking in excess of underlying demand over the near term.We see few reasons to move in earnest to lock in profits now.Although there is the risk of a major snapback,we look for brisk earnings momentum by 5G-related stocks(Advantest(6857),Anritsu(6754).For SPE names,we believe the time to assess certainty in fundamentals,which have disappointed investors,has slid into mid-CY20 or so.As market conditions for realistic WFE capex in CY20 are weaker than the consensus,we maintain a cautious investment stance on the SPE sector.4 December 2019 Equity Research Asia Pacific|Japan DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Research Analysts Hideyuki Maekawa 81 3 4550 9723 hideyuki.maekawacredit- Akinori Kanemoto 81 3 4550 7363 akinori.kanemotocredit- Mika Nishimura 81 3 4550 7369 mika.nishimuracredit- Yoshiyasu Takemura 81 3 4550 7358 yoshiyasu.takemuracredit- Sayaka Shimonishi 81 3 4550 7364 sayaka.shimonishicredit- Daisuke Tanimoto 81 3 4550 7371 daisuke.tanimotocredit- Tailai Qiu 81 3 4550 9984 tailai.qiucredit- 4 December 2019 Technology sector 2 Key charts Figure 1:Projected capacity utilization for Taiwanese foundry 300mm/200mm lines(input basis)Figure 2:Potential growth in smartphone NAND capacity decreasing Source:Credit Suisse estimates Source:IDC,Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3:DRAM supplydemand model Figure 4:NAND supplydemand model Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates Source:Credit Suisse estimates Figure 5:WFE capex forecasts(Japan team estimate)Figure 6:Development roadmap5G SoC single-chip Source:Credit Suisse estimates Source:SEMI,Credit Suisse estimates 50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%1Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q1950%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.Jan.May.Sep.2010201120122013201420152016201720182019TSMC Quarterly Utilization RatesMonthly Utilization rate(300/200mm)300mm(Input)200mm(Input)TSMC total utilization(sales)FORECAST0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q16E2Q16E3Q16E4Q16E1Q17E2Q17E3Q17E4Q17E1Q18E2Q18E3Q18E4Q18E1Q19E2Q19E3Q19E4Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20EMobile Phone Bit Growth(%)NAND Total Demand Bit Growth(%)14%8%0%-11%2%4%-7%-10%(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.01.02.03.04.0-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1Q043Q041Q053Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q191Q203Q20Excess Inventory(week)OversupplySupply shortage16%-5%-19%-12%6%3%-6%-9%(8.0)(6.0)(4.0)(2.0)0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q191Q203Q20Excess Inventory(week)OversupplySupply shortage5.4 9.1 14.0 7.5 6.010.6 18.0 15.0 8.5 9.012.8 13.3 13.5 15.0 15.05.7 6.5 8.0 10.0 9.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.02004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020EBn$DRAMNANDFoundryLogic/Others47.034.550.539.041.05G SoC2 Chips(modem+AP)1 Chip(Integratedchip of AP+Modem3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4QQualcommFlagshipSDM8652 chips with X55(TSMC 7nm Pro)MP(TSMC 7nm)SDM8752 chips with X60(TSMC 7nm Pro?)MP(Samsung 5nm EUV)High-endSM7250MP-only Sub-6(Samsung 7nm EUV)MP-mm-wave/sub-6(Samsung 7nm EUV)Middle-endSM6250MP(Samsung 7nm EUV or 8nm?)AppleFlagshipA142 chips with X55(TSMC 7nm Pro)MP(TSMC 5nm EUV)SamsungFlagship/High-endExynos 98252 chips with Exynos5100(Samsung 10nm)MP(Samsung 7nm EUV)Exynos 98302 chips with Exynos5123(Samsung 7nm EUV)MP(Samsung 7nm EUV)Exynos 9840?MP(Samsung 5nm EUV)Middle-endExynos 9630MP(Samsung 8nm)Exynos 9640?MP(Samsung 7nm EUV)HiSiliconFlagship/High-endKirin 9902 chips with Balong 5000(TSMC 7nm)MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)Kirin 1000?(post-Kirin990)MP(TSMC 5nm EUV)Middle-endKirin820MP?(TSMC 7nm+EUV)MediatekFlagshipMT6885MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)High-endMT6883The same design as MT6885(slightly low-costver.)MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)Middle-endMT6873MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)Low-endMT6XXXMP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)201920204 December 2019 Technology sector 3 Table of Contents Key charts 2 Executive summary 5 All 5G-related capex anticipated over CY2021(as of our September survey)is being brought forward to 1H CY20;Brisk restocking demand with no seasonal correction through 1Q CY20.5 Investment summary 7 Investment implications.7 Semiconductor/network equipment:Smartphone production schedules have caught up with chipset plans;we also see little near-term risk for memory amid restocking demand brought forward from CY20.7 Semiconductor materials:No change in memory wafer input;demand up slightly on improving utilization at foundries.7 SPE:Foundry investment peaking,Samsung Electronics small-scale memory investments insufficient to make up for reduced investment among other memory manufacturers.8 Valuation tables.9 5G smartphone trends 13 Our view based on our survey.13 5G smartphone production.13 5G chipset development and production.14 5G smartphone-related semiconductor/electronic component demand.16 Logic,foundry,CIS trends 17 Our views based on survey feedback.17 Semiconductor fab capacity utilization.17 Sharp growth in 5G smartphone-related demand,capacity utilization up for 28nm/40nm in addition to cutting-edge processes.18 Taiwan foundry,Korea LSI 7/5nm process,5nm mass-market&development trends20 Market feedback.20 CIS market and production trends 22 Our views based on survey feedback.22 Data-center demand for memory 25 Our view based on the survey.25 Data center overview.25 Data center DRAM.26 Data center NAND.26 4 December 2019 Technology sector 4 DRAM market trends 29 Our view based on our survey.29 DRAM market outlook.29 DRAM demand outlook.31 DRAM supply outlook.34 DRAM inventory trends.35 DRAM price trends.35 DDR5 uptake.38 NAND market outlook 39 Our view based on our survey.39 NAND pricing trends.40 NAND demand trends.41 NAND supply outlook.48 NAND inventory trends.48 NAND pricing outlook.49 3D NAND 9x/1XX mass production and development.53 Front-end SPE market 56 Our view based on channel checks.56 Memory investment:Slight increase expected from Samsung Electronics.57 Foundry investment peaking,but logic investment a possibility.57 WFE market outlook.58 Back-end SPE market outlook 60 Our view based on our survey.60 Other(China market)62 Our view based on market survey.62 4 December 2019 Technology sector 5 Executive summary All 5G-related capex anticipated over CY2021(as of our September survey)is being brought forward to 1H CY20;Brisk restocking demand with no seasonal correction through 1Q CY20 For hardware production trends,please see our Asia feedback(Hardware)report published today.Regarding the smartphone market,in our September survey,we reported on plans for production of more than 500mn 5G chipsets.In this survey,we note that smartphone makers plan to produce 470480mn 5G smartphones,and there are already signs of restocking demand for related parts.We understand that some CISs,APs,and other electronic parts are in short supply,and this has apparently led to restocking demand for a variety of semiconductors and electronic components.In late November,shortages of Intel CPUs for PCs worsened again,and 1Q CY20 supply will apparently be 7080%of the previously planned supply volume.This impact on the supply chain warrants monitoring.Looking to CY21,the release cycle for new iPhone models may change from CY21,which could level out demand trends related to new iPhone product cycles.In China,demand remains weak overall,except for semiconductors and components related to smartphones and datacenters.Our survey reconfirms that demand related to automobiles,industrial machinery,and consumer electronics is still sluggish with no signs of improvement.The only bright area in the country is the possibility of subsidies for inverter air conditioners,which is putting related demand on an uptrend for power semiconductors and microcomputers.At local retailers in China,business sentiment has improved after striking bottom,but the strength of cash flow varies widely by retailer,indicating that overall demand is not increasing rapidly.We maintain our cautious stance in light of the cash flow situation as some retailers change their policy on holding inventories.It appears that customers are holding onto their own inventories.Under these conditions,semiconductor production facilities are operating at full capacity on cutting-edge processes(7nm/10nm/16nm)for 5G smartphones,cryptocurrency,and high-performance computing(HPC)applications.Inventory adjustments for 4G smartphone application processors(APs)and a seasonal decline in iPhone production look likely to be canceled out by brisk demand in the areas mentioned above.We estimate Taiwanese foundry 300mm capacity utilization(input basis)will be 84%in 3Q(September estimate 83%),89%in 4Q(81%)and 93%in 1Q CY20.Our most recent survey saw no change in production plans for 515mn chipsets for 5G smartphones.Smartphone production plans have neared this figure,so we expect cutting-edge processes to continue operating at full capacity without any adjustments through mid-CY20.We also confirmed that Samsung Electronics LSI lines are encountering severe supply shortages for 200mm/300mm.Apparently,supply is only meeting around 70%of demand,which has been strong for high-margin cryptocurrency applications,in addition to a net increase in modems,RFICs,and PMIC for 5G smartphones.Tight supply conditions are expected to loosen up at Samsung Electronics from 2H CY20.For this reason,we sound the alarm that some companies are placing extra orders to shore up thin inventories in the supply chain,especially to keep up with rapid growth in 5G smartphones in CY20.Assuming 300mn Chinese 5G smartphones are produced in CY20,almost all production at Chinese smartphone makers will be 5G smartphones in 2H of that year,which should require capex to ensure sufficient supply capacity across almost all semiconductors and electronic components through 1H CY20.All of the 5G smartphone-related capex that had been forecast for CY2021 as of our September survey looks likely to be carried out earlierby the end of 1H CY20.We thus see the possibility of a snapback in related capex thereafter.Some memory makers said they cannot accurately gauge the difference between underlying demand and restocking demand for memory used in PCs,datacenters,and Chinese smartphones.Although there was no change in the outlook for DRAM prices to continue falling CY20 production plans for 5G smartphones catching up with chipset output Supply therefore tighter for various semiconductors and components,spurring restocking demand Increased components procurement for inverter-type air conditioners in China Sharp increase in semiconductor demand Large gap between underlying memory-related demand and procurement;marked growth in restocking demand 4 December 2019 Technology sector 6 due to oversupply through 1H CY20,the sentiment of market participants seemed rosier than in our September survey.We attribute this to upward revisions to demand forecasts regarding the US hyperscalers.However,this demand seems to for restocking