瑞信-亚太地区-科技行业-“5G狂想曲”：设备库存调整很快让位于对供应紧张的担忧-2019.12.4-91页.pdf

Technology sector Asia feedback(Hardware):“The 5G Rhapsody”:device inventory adjustments quickly giving way to concerns about tight supply Technology|Comment Summary:We conducted our periodic survey of the Korean,Taiwanese and Chinese tech markets in midlate November.As in our previous survey,end demand shows no sign of picking up.In IT-related products,and smartphone-related products in particular,inventory adjustments have ended and restocking has begun.In addition,in early November,5G smartphone manufacturers significantly increased their CY20 production plans,sharply increasing concerns about tight supply for a number of devices heading into 2020 and leading to a scramble for devices.The question of how much to discount customers production plans is evidently becoming an issue for many device manufacturers.Focal points in hardware&devices:(1)In our report following the previous survey,we stated that makers target 5G-chipset output of 500mn units in CY20,and 5G smartphone output is likely to reach 250300mn units,but the 5G chipset production target is now greater than 500mn units,and we now believe 5G smartphone output will reach 470480mn units.(2)Apple has not significantly altered its iPhone production plan in the wake of better-than-expected demand in October,and suppliers expect a smaller-than-usual seasonal adjustment in JanMar CY20,owing in part to launch of the iPhone SE 2.There is a growing possibility that in CY21,Apple will alter its new-model introduction cycle,releasing new iPhones not once per year as they do now(in autumn)but twice(in spring and autumn).Thus it is increasingly like that for the device sector,demand will be greater-than-usual in 1H CY21,defying the typical seasonality.(3)In Chinese smartphones,the possibility of LTE handset inventory adjustments ahead of the launch of 5G models had been a concern,but to date there has been no sign of such an inventory adjustment,and in fact OctDec production volume is higher than was expected in the previous survey.(4)For a wide range of devices(including CISs,connectors,liquid crystal devices,power inductors,and high-frequency inductors),concerns are growing about tight supply heading into CY20.Concerns about tight supply in 2H CY20 are also emerging for some types of MLCC.In addition,we understand that LC filters and SAW devices are starting to face tight supply.Stock calls:Although we think 5G smartphone production plans may be excessive,we maintain a bullish stance on the Japan technology sector,and on 5G-related stocks in particular which likely benefit from ASP unit growth,in light of the end of inventory adjustments and the start of restocking,the launch of 5G smartphones,and the possible change in the new-model launch cycle for the iPhone.Murata Mfg(6981)and Taiyo Yuden(6976)the two companies likely to benefit the most from the spread of 5G smartphonesremain our top picks.We also prefer Alps Alpine(6770)(likely to benefit from an increase in the value of camera actuators built into flagship smartphone models)and Rohm(6963)(which has significant earnings leverage owing to a rebound in market prices).We expect the market to continue favoring Advantest(6857),which is likely to benefit from 5G-chipset mass production,and Anritsu(6723),which should tap tester demand for production of spring 2020 models.Also,with CIS demand expansion we maintain Sony(6758)as our top pick in consumer electronics sector.4 December 2019 Equity Research Asia Pacific|Japan DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Research Analysts Akinori Kanemoto 81 3 4550 7363 akinori.kanemotocredit- Hideyuki Maekawa 81 3 4550 9723 hideyuki.maekawacredit- Mika Nishimura 81 3 4550 7369 mika.nishimuracredit- Yoshiyasu Takemura 81 3 4550 7358 yoshiyasu.takemuracredit- Sayaka Shimonishi 81 3 4550 7364 sayaka.shimonishicredit- Daisuke Tanimoto 81 3 4550 7371 daisuke.tanimotocredit- Tailai Qiu 81 3 4550 9984 tailai.qiucredit- 4 December 2019 Technology sector 2 Key charts Figure 1:Global smartphone production volume(quarterly)Figure 2:Chinese smartphone production volume Source:Credit Suisse estimates Source:Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3:iPhone quarterly output projections(as of Sep,Oct and Nov 2019)Source:Credit Suisse estimates 6075851001031291351391301601551601651831881981521651861841531811951721751971782001667179888687778074827082848176757980808774787071706979787375332837603228508058605575404157884340509751405776403156775315191616162122231920 19201718171817151515121110118888840444445414857635358 58604350475642414140353535352828282828-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0501001502002503003504004505001Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q4QE1QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019CY2020mn unitsChina SmartphonesSamsung SmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCOthersYOY%Chg.607585100103129135139130160155160165183188198152165186184153181195172172197178200166-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002501Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q4QE1QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019CY2020mn unitsSmartphone production by Chinese makersyoy%chg.iPhone productioniPhone productionCY18CY19CY19CY19FY3/19FY3/20FY3/20FY3/20CY20CY20CY20as ofas ofas ofas ofas ofas ofmn unitsmn units1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1Q19/919/10 19/11119/919/1019/11 iPhone 5s/5c/4s0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 iPhone SE3.81.52.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.40.00.00.00.07.40.00.00.44.00.00.00.0 iPhone SE New0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.20.00.00.00.05.20.00.00.00.06.90.00.00.00.00.05.25.36.9 iPhone 66.02.52.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.010.50.00.00.04.50.00.00.0 iPhone 6 plus0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 iPhone 6s3.41.51.44.24.31.42.30.20.04.31.21.70.60.04.31.41.70.60.010.48.27.98.011.33.93.63.8 iPhone 6s Plus1.01.20.61.31.40.50.70.10.01.40.40.50.20.01.40.50.50.20.04.12.72.62.74.51.31.21.3 iPhone 73.13.42.83.55.03.33.96.02.85.02.43.84.93.84.82.73.84.44.312.718.216.015.714.515.914.915.2 iPhone 7 Plus2.31.81.10.61.10.81.01.10.41.10.61.01.20.71.30.61.01.30.45.84.03.94.14.73.33.53.3 iPhone 89.010.68.47.65.74.13.74.81.65.73.24.56.51.55.93.24.55.61.035.518.319.919.332.514.115.714.4 iPhone 8 Plus11.08.66.64.72.81.31.11.11.92.80.91.52.01.43.31.01.51.31.030.96.37.27.123.15.55.94.8 iPhone X11.68.44.14.31.20.60.00.00.01.20.60.00.00.04.10.60.00.00.028.41.81.84.720.90.60.60.6 iPhone XR0.00.03.327.510.013.511.111.90.010.013.88.19.05.49.213.410.76.25.830.846.440.839.540.136.436.236.1 iPhone XS0.00.010.68.92.63.61.52.60.02.63.01.72.00.72.53.01.71.11.919.510.49.38.322.07.77.47.7 iPhone XS Max0.00.013.913.02.95.02.20.00.02.94.91.80.00.02.64.91.80.00.026.910.19.69.329.57.26.86.8 iPhone 110.00.00.00.00.00.014.624.911.40.00.013.433.019.30.00.013.033.320.9-39.546.446.30.051.065.767.2 iPhone 11 Pro0.00.00.00.00.00.06.811.12.90.00.06.112.04.00.00.06.110.94.5-17.918.117.00.020.822.121.6 iPhone 11 Pro Max0.00.00.00.00.00.08.815.33.80.00.09.112.15.50.00.09.212.16.2-24.121.221.30.027.926.727.5Total51.139.556.975.537.134.157.779.030.137.131.253.283.647.539.831.555.677.053.0223.0207.9205.0203.9211.6200.9215.4217.1CY2018Production forecastProduction forecastCY2019CYFY March endAs of end of Nov 19As of Sept 19CY2019As of Oct 19CY20194 December 2019 Technology sector 3 Figure 4:5G chipset production plan(as of Dec 2019)Source:Credit Suisse estimates Figure 5:5G chipset production plan(as of Sep 2019)Source:Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6:5G production plan and chipset(as of Dec 2019)Source:Credit Suisse estimates 5G SOC,BB+AP production forecast20192020AP/BB/SOCProduct nameProcessFoundrymn unitsmn unitsCustomerHisiliconBalong 5000(+Kirin 980/985/710)7nm ProTSMC515HuaweiKirin 9907nm EUVTSMC1770HuaweiKirin 8207nm EUVTSMC150HuaweiKirin 1000(3Q20)5nm EUVTSMCNANAHuaweiQualcommX50(+SDM855)8nmSamsung40Mainly China,Samsung,LGX55(+SDM865)7nm ProTSMC1160Mainly China,Samsung,LGX55(+Apple A13/14)AP5nm/7nm Pro+BB7nm ProTSMC090AppleSDM7250($55)7nm EUVSamsung490Mainly China,Samsung,LG,othersSDM6250(3Q20 MP)8nm?7nm?SamsungNANAMainly China,Samsung,LG,othersSamsung LSIExynos 96308nmSamsung350Samsung,Lenovo,Xiaomi,vivo5G Modem+AP7nm EUV/5nmEUVSamsung015Samsung FlagshipMediatekTotal7nm EUVTSMC180Mainly ChinaMT6885 4Q19OPPO,Xiaomi and HuaweiMT6883 1Q20($48)MT6873 2Q20($25-30)MT6xxx Low-end 3Q20Total46520Hisilicon23135Qualcomm19240Samsung LSI365Mediatek1805G SOC,BB+AP production forecast20192020AP/BB/SOCProduct nameProcessFoundrymn unitsmn unitsCustomerHisiliconBalong 5000(+Kirin 980/985/710)7nm ProTSMC515HuaweiHisiliconKirin 9907nm EUVTSMC1750HuaweiHisiliconKirin 8207nm EUVTSMC1100HuaweiQualcommX50(+SDM855)8nmSamsung40Mainly China,Samsung,LGQualcommX55(+SDM865)7nm ProTSMC1160Mainly China,Samsung,LGQualcommX55(+Apple A13/14)AP5nm/7nm Pro+BB7nm ProTSMC090AppleQualcommSDM72507nm EUVSamsung490Mainly China,Samsung,LG,othersQualcommSDM6250(3Q20 MP)8nm?7nm?SamsungNANAMainly China,Samsung,LG,othersSamsung LSIExynos 96308nmSamsung350Samsung,Lenovo,Xiaomi,vivoSamsung LSI5G Modem+AP7nm EUV/5nmEUVSamsung015Samsung FlagshipMediatekM70 SoC(1Q-2Q20),Midend SoC(3Q20)7nm EUVTSMC145Mainly ChinaTotal46515Hisilicon23165Qualcomm19240Samsung LSI365Mediatek145QCOMHiSilicon Samsung LSI MediatekApple9090Samsung601545Huawei17015020OPPO602535Xiaomi452520vivo4020155Others1010000Total47517515060805G Production Plan(mn units)4 December 2019 Technology sector 4 Table of Contents Key charts 2 Summary:“The 5G Rhapsody”5 Smartphones.5 Tablets.6 PCs.6 Devices in short supply.6 Hardware production trends implications for stocks 8 Electronic component sector.8 Semiconductor/SPE sector.8 Panel,CIS sector.9 Smartphone production 12 No sign of adjustment in Chinese 4G smartphones;sharp increase in 5G production schedules has phone makers racing to secure enough devices.12 iPhone production trends:Product cycle likely to change from CY21.15 Samsung smartphone production:no big changes.22 Chinese smartphone production.32 5G trends:Procurement side in a panic heading into 2020 69 Others 75 Appendix 77 4 December 2019 Technology sector 5 Summary:“The 5G Rhapsody”Smartphones Smartphone production volume Our Japanese technology team estimates global smartphone production totaled 1,464mn units(5%YoY)in CY17 and 1,396mn(5%)in CY18.For CY19,our estimate has increased slightly from 1,332mn units(5%)at the time of the March survey(1,343mn,4%at the time of the June survey;1,344mn,4%at the time of the September survey)to 1,392mn(essentially flat)now.This mainly reflects stronger-than-expected production volume among Chinese smartphone manufacturers in the JunSep and OctDec quarters.We estimate quarterly production in CY18 at 326mn units(20%QoQ,3%YoY)in JanMar,336mn(+3%,2%)in AprJun,365mn(+9%,4%)in JulSep,and 363mn(1%,11%)in OctDec.Our CY19 estimates in the September survey were 306mn units(16%QoQ,7%YoY)for JanMar,347mn(+13%,+3%)for AprJun,343mn(1%,7%)for JulSep,and 347mn(+1%,5%)for OctDec.Our CY19 estimates as of the latest survey(i.e.,late Nov)are 317mn units(13%QoQ,4%YoY)for JanMar,343mn(+8%,+2%)for AprJun,347mn(+1%,6%)for JulSep,386mn(+11%,+6%)for OctDec,and 330mn(15%,+4%)for JanMar CY20.Looking at OctDec output growth at Chinese smartphone makers,we expect rampups ahead of the Lunar New Year,and we understand makers are building up 4G smartphone inventory now as such capacity is likely to be swiftly switched to 5G smartphone production from 2020.Forecasts for the Chinese market suggest smartphone inventory periods grew to one month during 2019.5G-related devices We previously thought that planned CY20 production of 5G chipset would exceed 500mn units,and that output of 5G handsets would probably reach 250300mn units.We continue to think that planned CY20 production of 5G chipset will exceed 500mn units.However,we now think that planned production of 5G smartphones in CY20 will reach 470480mn units,reflecting a sharp increase in planned production,particular among Chinese smartphone manufacturers,in early November.Having secured chipset supplies,the major smartphone manufacturers began sourcing other devices in the first half of November.Some suppliers of devices widely expected to be incorporated into 5G smartphones in greater numbers than in past models(e.g.,power inductors and high-frequency inductors)are starting to say that they will be unable to supply a sufficient number of devices to meet customers production plans.This makes the number of 5G smartphones that can actually be produced unclear.iPhone Scheduled iPhone production volume in CY19 was 203mn units(9%YoY)as of our June survey)and 208mn units(7%YoY)as of our September survey.It is now 204mn units(9%)as of the latest survey.On a quarterly basis,scheduled production for CY19 was as follows as of early September:JanMar 37mn units(51%QoQ,28%YoY),AprJun 34mn units(8%,14%),JulSep 58mn units(+59%,+1%),OctDec 79mn units(+37%,+5%),and JanMar CY20 30mn units.As of the present survey(late November)it is as follows:JanMar 40mn units(47%QoQ,22%YoY),AprJun 32mn units(21%,20%),JulSep 56mn units(+77%,2%),OctDec 77mn units(+38%,+2%),JanMar CY20 53mn units(33%,+33%).At the time of the previous survey,we though that planned production for CY19 would probably include production volume brought forward into OctDec to avoid higher US tariffs on China and to prepare for the Lunar New Year,which will start in late January in CY20.However,in early 4 December 2019 Technology sector 6 October Apple increased its production target for JanMar CY20 owing in part to strong iPhone 11 sales,and as of the late November survey the underlying trend was the same.In CY20,Apple is likely to unveil a new iPhone SE model in early spring and three or four OLED models in autumn.We see a strong likelihood that for devices the OLED models will feature 5G compatibility(millimeter wave support in Japan and the US in particular).Moreover,it is increasingly likely that in CY21,Apple will(as Chinese smartphone manufacturers and Samsung Electronics do with their flagship models)launch two models in the spring and two in the autumn.Tablets Tablet production volume among the seven major manufacturers totaled 102mn units in CY18,and CY19 production volume was projected to amount to 99mn units(3%YoY)as of the March survey,101mn units(2%)as of the June survey,102mn units(1%)as of the September survey,and 96mn units(7%)as of the present survey.iPad production volume totaled 53mn units(+3%)in CY18,and CY19 production volume was projected to amount t