瑞信-美股-汽车与汽车零部件行业-远距离对于电动汽车的挑战：一个充满挑战的数十年进程-2019.6.26-63页 (2).pdf

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.26 June 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research Automobiles&Components The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs Research Analysts Dan Levy 212 325 4617 dan.levycredit- Robert Moon 212 325 7112 robert.mooncredit- INDUSTRY PRIMER A multi-decade process with many challenges The core theme in our coverage launch of the U.S.Autos sector is the industrys challenge of the“two clocks”balancing the“near”(the cyclical)with the“far”(the secular).Vehicle electrification is one of the two key secular megatrends facing the industry.We accept the notion of the radical powertrain shift ahead,with the electric powertrain to ultimately displace the internal combustion engine(which has powered vehicles since their advent 100+years ago).While we accept the transition is inevitable,we offer a differing opinion on the timing.Simply,we believe the transition will take longer than indicated by the hype.We are only in the first inning of the transition BEVs(fully electric vehicles)represented only 1.5%of global light vehicles sold in 2018.And we expect it will take another 30 years for BEVs to account for the majority of global vehicle sales.To enable the transition to electrification,a number of challenges must be addressed,requiring further increases in resources and attention from industry participants,and reminding us that the transition will not be easy:Consumer demand for EVs must increase.The amount of suitable offerings must increase,charging infrastructure must grow significantly,and EVs will need to be offered at price points more comparable with todays offerings.Automakers face many challenges:Margins may face risk the cost of an electric powertrain may take another 1-2 decades before being at parity with a combustion engine powertrain,and there will likely be a negative mix effect in the early days of the shift from combustion engine vehicles to EVs.There is also a question on footprint nearly half of manufacturing capacity for automakers today is for engines and transmissions,yet EVs need a far simpler footprint.The transition will be costly,and will have a social/political cost.Powertrain parts suppliers also face risk:Automakers may choose to increase insourcing to re-use capacity,and also to mitigate some of the profit headwinds.Moreover,amid a simplification of vehicle powertrains,the differentiated and more profitable product niches currently held by suppliers may fade,giving way to fewer product niches with less differentiation.Figure 1:CS Est.-Battery Electric Vehicle as%Light Vehicle Sales Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates Region201820202025203020402050U.S.1%2%6%11%28%64%Europe1%2%10%18%48%70%China3%6%21%51%76%82%Global2%3%9%21%36%52%BEV Penetration 26 June 2019 The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs 2 Table of contents A multi-decade process with many challenges 1 Key Charts/Tables 3 Executive Summary 5 Challenges to be addressed in the long-term transition to electrification 8 Penetration forecasts challenges ahead,but regulation offsets depending on region 37 Supplier uncertainties in an EV world 50 Glossary 57 Appendix 59 26 June 2019 The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs 3 Key Charts/Tables Figure 2:Our thought process on the transition to electrification Source:Credit Suisse estimates Note:See glossary for further definitions of the following terms:ICE=internal combustion engine,EV=electric vehicle,OEM=original equipment manufacturer(the term is used to refer to traditional automakers)Capacity/Social CostCost to ConsumersOEM Margin RisksEnvironmental AwarenessRaw MaterialsDealer Base ConsiderationsThe Tesla EffectAdvances in Technology/CostIncreased societal focus on the environment,in part driven by VWs diesel scandal,has led governments to propose or enact bans on vehicles powered by fossil fuels,while also leading some consumers to demand more environmentally friendly vehicle options1.CatalystsOEMs Increasing Commitment to ElectrificationRisk to Parts Suppliers2.ResponsesIncreased investment,more product development,with some committing to an all-electric futureSuppliers potentially at risk as many of the ICE powertrain product niches are reduced or eliminated,and OEMs revisit value chain,with potential for more insourcingEVs not yet priced similarly with current ICE compsNearly half of current OEM capacity footprint relates to engine/transmission plants,yet EV manufacturing requires much smaller footprint;capacity transitions are expensive and have a social costCostly Transition for OEMs,ICE Still LivesSignificant cost ahead to automakers for product development,architecture transition,and capacity modification;also,while declining,OEMs still devoting significant portion of budget toward ICE powertrainCharging/Electric InfrastructureDealer base generally not educated on EVs;not incentivized to sell EV given potentially reduced service businessRaw material prices may impact battery costs3.ChallengesPotential path of battery cost curve means powertrain cost parity between ICE and EV could take another two decades;adoption faster than cost curve implies margin pressure for OEMs,all else equal;likely negative mix effect as OEMs shift from ICE to EVModel Options/AvailabilityTeslas increased prominence,combined with significant media attention and a popular following,has drawn more attention to electrification among various partiesNew Entrants Entities beyond traditional automotive participants playing an increased role in shaping the future of electrificationIncreased Infrastructure SpendGovernments,public utilities,OEMs,start-ups,and others placing greater focus on growing EV charging stations and supporting infrastructure 4.CS ConclusionEVs will dominate in the future;however,the many challenges ahead imply the transition will take longer than implied by the hypePublic charging infrastructure needs to be built,question of who pays for the infrastructure build-out;Electrical infrastructure/grid needs to be modified to accommodate charging build-outMore EV models hitting the market,but comparability still limited relative to ICE optionsBattery costs have improved in recent years,starting to make electric powertrains more feasible 26 June 2019 The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs 4 Figure 3:Credit Suisse New Light Vehicle Sales Powertrain Penetration Forecast Source:Credit Suisse estimates Region%of Market201820182020202520302035204020452050U.S.19%ICE(non-hybrid)96%90%74%53%38%32%20%13%Hybrid-mild1%3%11%22%32%33%27%17%Hybrid-strong2%3%6%9%10%8%7%7%PHEV1%2%3%4%2%0%0%0%BEV1%2%6%11%18%28%47%64%W.Europe19%ICE(non-hybrid)95%81%53%25%15%5%3%8%Hybrid-mild1%10%21%34%35%33%28%18%Hybrid-strong2%3%5%6%2%1%1%1%PHEV1%4%11%18%16%13%8%3%BEV1%2%10%18%33%48%60%70%China29%ICE(non-hybrid)95%85%51%12%3%3%3%3%Hybrid-mild0%6%22%34%27%20%14%14%Hybrid-strong1%1%3%3%3%2%2%2%PHEV1%2%4%0%0%0%0%0%BEV3%6%21%51%68%76%82%82%RoW 34%ICE95%92%84%73%63%54%47%40%Hybrid-mild1%2%6%11%16%20%21%21%Hybrid-strong4%5%6%9%9%9%8%8%PHEV0%1%1%3%4%5%5%6%BEV0%1%2%5%8%13%19%25%Global100%ICE(non-hybrid)95%88%68%46%36%30%25%22%Hybrid-mild1%5%14%22%24%24%21%18%Hybrid-strong2%3%5%7%6%6%5%5%PHEV1%2%4%5%5%4%4%3%BEV2%3%9%21%29%36%45%52%of Market201820182020202520302035204020452050Global-Total100%92.894.9100.7104.8108.5112.5112.3112.1ICE(non-hybrid)88.183.068.147.738.933.728.124.5Hybrid-mild0.54.314.023.526.226.723.520.0Hybrid-strong2.13.05.17.26.96.45.95.6PHEV0.71.84.04.94.94.84.13.5BEV1.42.79.621.531.740.950.658.4Percent of Units Sold by Powertrain TypeUnits Sold by Powertrain Type,mn 26 June 2019 The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs 5 Executive Summary The transition to electrification will take decades-longer than indicated by the hype In recent years,one of the primary narratives to dominate the automotive industry has been the presumed forthcoming end of the internal combustion engine and the shift to electrification.VWs diesel emissions crisis,greater government and social awareness around climate change,and the growth of Tesla have all caused a multitude of parties to embrace a future with reduced or zero emissions.From a regulatory standpoint,a number of governments,in particular in Europe and China,have either proposed or enacted legislation banning the sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles over the next two decades.And whereas automakers globally once viewed vehicle electrification as nothing more than a novelty,strategy and budgets have significantly shifted in recent years,with nearly all automakers offering some form of plan on electrification whether to meet near-term compliance standards,or to answer the longer-term question of the transition to an emissions-free society.Accordingly,we do not see much of a debate that there will be a future dominated by the electric powertrain,with the current internal combustion engine fading.Yet,with the popular media providing continual coverage on the push toward electrification,the tone of the debate would make one think that an all-electric future is right around the corner,and that the internal combustion engine has breathed its last breath.RIP internal combustion engine?Not so fast.This is where we offer a differing opinion,with an alternative perspective around the timing of transition to electrification.We believe the transition to electrification will take longer than indicated by the hype.We are only in the first inning of the transition fully electric vehicles represented only 1.5%of global light vehicles sold in 2018.And we expect it will take another 30 years for fully electric vehicles to account for the majority of global vehicle sales.Despite the increased focus and commitment of resources from different industry players toward the transition to electrification,we see a number of challenges ahead related to different parties which must be addressed to enable this transition:At its core,the consumer must want electric vehicles for penetration to inflect.Suitable options meeting consumer needs(in particular around range)are not yet available,and the available options are not yet at price points similar to current internal combustion engine comps.Charging availability is also an issue.Automakers also have a long journey ahead.Nearly all automakers have developed a plan around electrification whether for the mid-term re:compliance,or longer term for an all-electric future and significant resources are being invested and allocated,while the value chain is being revisited.Yet they face a number of challenges:-There is likely a significant margin risk ahead-the cost of an electric powertrain may take another 1-2 decades before reaching parity with a comparable internal combustion powertrain,with margin risk also related to the 26 June 2019 The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs 6 potential negative mix effect from internal combustion engine(ICE1)vehicles to electric vehicles(EVs2),especially in the early days of the shift.-Original Equipment Manufacturers(OEMs3)also face the cost of overhauling their capacity for an electric future.Nearly half of manufacturing capacity for automakers today is for engines and transmissions,yet EVs need a far simpler footprint the number of moving parts in an average combustion engine is an order of magnitude(or more)higher than the number of moving parts vs.an electric powertrain,and it takes 30%less time to make an e-drive unit than an engine.The transition will be costly,with challenges on both the social and political fronts.-OEMs also face other challenges-They are still investing in the ICE powertrain(even if the amount is declining),and the transition to electric architectures will take a long time.And on top of that,the dealer base does not yet seem committed to electrification,especially given the risk of lower service business.The ecosystem must also transition.Battery capacity and raw material availability must be secured.More importantly,the build-out of charging infrastructure will require significant investment from different parties,and will take time.All in,there are a variety of variables that must be addressed to enable a full tipping point for electrification.And to the extent government regulation requires electrification at a faster pace than dictated by the cost curve and appeal to consumers,it could create significant inefficiencies across the industry.Given the very long timing of the transition to electrification,what does this mean for automotive industry participants?This very long-term transition will serve as a key challenge for different industry participants,who are balancing the transition alongside a challenging near-term environment for auto industry volumes(with volatility and risk to the downside).Automakers,as discussed above,have a number of challenges they need to address,and will need to invest heavily,while also facing potential margin headwinds.As for suppliers,they face a two-fold challenge.First,amid the simplification of vehicle powertrains,the highly profitable differentiated product niches they own within the current vehicle powertrain/drivetrain are likely to fade,and the competitive field they may face on the powertrain of the future may broaden as the lines of competition get blurred.Moreover,OEMs may increase insourcing,potentially bringing content in-house.They may look to repurpose engine/component capacity with components for the electric powertrain.And with OEMs facing a variety of margin challenges ahead,and having earned significantly lower margins than suppliers in the current cycle,they may revisit the value chain for the powertrain of the future,potentially bringing content in-house.In short,this will be a difficult and lengthy transition,with a great deal of uncertainty amid a highly radical shift.For further details,see our U.S.Autos&Auto Parts Initiation-The Challenge of the Two Clocks 1 ICE Vehicle Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle:a vehicle containing a traditional engine powered by gasoline,diesel,biofuel,or natural gas.2 EV Electric Vehicle:a vehicle powered by one or more electric motors.EVs come in various forms including the following:Battery Electric Vehicles(BEVs which are fully electric,and dont have a combustion engine),Hybrid Electric Vehicles(HEVs),Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles(PHEVs),New Electric Vehicles(NEVs),etc.3 OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer:a company that obtains component parts from differing suppliers to create a finished product.We refer to the automotive vehicle makers as OEMs(i.e.Ford,GM,Fiat Chrysler,Tesla,etc.)26 June 2019 The Challenge of the“Far”:EVs 7 Figure 4:While electrification will ultimately emerge,there are a number of