GlobalEquityStrategy11February2019WhatareyousayingandwherearetherisksDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ResearchAnalystsAndrewGarthwaite+442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comRobertGriffiths+442078838885robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comNicolasWylenzek+442078836480nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comMengyuanYuan+442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comKartikeyaUpadhyay+442078882339kartikeya.upadhyay@credit-suisse.comAsimAli+442078882480asim.ali@credit-suisse.com05101520250.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%Economists'2020USrealGDPgrowthestimateGlobalEquityStrategy2ThereisalotofuncertaintyifwelookattheEconomicPolicyUncertaintyindexordispersionofearningsestimates,butthesellsideisoptimisticwithinatightrange.68%ofeconomistsbelieveUSGDPgrowthwillbeatorabovetrendin2020,88%believeequitieswillriseand91%believebondyieldswillrise.IsthisconsistentwithasdovishaFedasthemarketsassume?3.54.04.55.05.56.06.5201420152016201720182019S&P50012mfwdEPSdispersion05010015020025030035040019971999200120032005200720102012201420162018WorldEconomicPolicyUncertaintyindex02468101214Down5%+Down0-5%Up0-5%Up5-10%Up10-15%Up15%+Sell-sidestrategistsend-19pricetargetforS&P500,fromcurrentlevelof27313/4ofsell-sidestrategistsareforecastingpositiveS&P500returnsfor2019ofmorethan5%68%ofeconomistsstillexpecttheUSeconomytogrowatoraboveitslong-termtrend(1.8%)in2020Earningsdispersionishigh(thevarianceofearningsestimatesaroundthemean)EconomicuncertaintyhaspickedupsignificantlyusingtheWEPUncertaintyIndexSource:Refinitiv,theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,CreditSuisseresearch-20-15-10-505101544464850525456201120122014201520172...
