DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.27August2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchLeasing&LogisticsAircraftLeasing–ProprietarySurveyCOMMENTResearchAnalystsMosheOrenbuch2125386795moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comJamesUlan2123258235james.ulan@credit-suisse.comJoseCaiado2123256771jose.caiado@credit-suisse.comNewkitsolid+strengthinadownturn,butcurrent-genrates/valuescouldweakenOursurveyoffleetmanagersandairlineexecssuggestsmodeststrengthfornewnarrowbodyleaseratesbutsomepressureonvalues/ratesofcurrentgennarrowbodiesand777/A330s.Fleetmanagers/executivesdonotexpectairlinefailurestodeclinematerially.Ourstudyalsosuggeststhatorderbooklessors,suchasALandAER,shouldfarebetter-than-expectedinthenextdownturn,asfewairlinescanceledforwarddeliveriesinthelastrecession.■Conclusion:ALandAERshoulddobetterinadownturnandAYRwillhavetomanagetheircurrentgenexposure.Wearemoreoptimisticonnewgenleaserates,butabitmorecautiousoncurrentgenleaserates.TheMAXshouldseesomebenefitandpossiblytheneotoo,inadditiontodecliningtreasuryyieldswhichshouldhelpNIMs.Airlinefailuresareunlikelytoreturnto'15-'17'slows.WearemorepositiveonAL,asonly3outof39surveyedairlinescanceledordersfromlessorsinthepriorrecessionandeventhenthetwoofthesecanceled30%orless.■Modestneostrength,goodMAXforecastsbutratesoftnessincurrentgennarrow/widebodies:Ourstudysuggeststhattheneo(A320leaserateforecastfor+2.5%vsOct'18survey's-1%)andMAX(leaserateforecastfor+6.3%vsOct'18's-1%)shouldseesomeimprovementbut777,A330andcurrentgennarrowbodiesarelikelytoseemoreleaseratesoftness.Oncurrentgen,FMsforecast737-800ratestodeclineby-12%vsOct'18's-7%andA320CGratestodeclin...
