群邑-2019年全球媒体预测报告（英文）-2019.6-44页.pdf

WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS This YearNext YearJUNE 2019WHAT DOES OUR FORECAST MEAN FOR MARKETERS?.5INTRODUCTION .6AUSTRALIA .12BRAZIL .16CANADA .20CHINA.24GERMANY .28INDIA .32UNITED KINGDOM .36UNITED STATES .40CONTENTSGroupM3 World Trade Center175 Greenwich StreetNew York,NY 10007USA FOR THE FULL 70-COUNTRY FORECAST AND APPENDIX:ALL WPP EMPLOYEES:link to CLIENTS:please speak with your client account director for the full data file or contact Brian Wieser ()EVERYONE ELSE:contact Brian Wieser ()WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS JUNE 2019This Year Next YearAll rights reserved.This publication is protected by copyright.No part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form,or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying or otherwise,without written permission from the copyright owners.Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents,but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in respect of errors or omissions.Readers will appreciate that the data is as up-to-date only to the extent that its availability,compilation and printed schedules will allow and is subject to change.5|WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019What does our forecast mean for marketers?Where media spending growth outpaces growth in ad inventory and produces inflationary conditions for like-for-like inventory,brand-focused marketers must continually evolve their tactics to optimize campaigns.For example,the timing of flights,the balance of resources allocated to data,consumer insights,creative content and media buys,and the relative utility of specific media owners must all be managed for greater efficiency.Marketers should continually look to develop alternative approaches to their communications efforts,so they have the credible ability to walk away from less desirable choices.1Where media spending growth is tepid or worse brand and performance marketers alike may still find valuable opportunities to use a medium,so long as the potential for campaign reach against target audiences is still relatively substantial.In these situations where spending grows slowly(or declines faster)than consumption,opportunities to secure improved overall terms,presence and efficiency are likely to be produced.2Where territories economic growth is stronger than advertising growth,those markets may offer disproportionate benefits for shifts of ad budgets from global companies across countries.Using the IMFs expectations for economic growth and our own for advertising growth,in 2020,the widest gaps of this nature among the worlds 20 largest economies are found in Argentina,Switzerland,Italy,China and the Netherlands.Where economic growth is weaker than advertising growth,and unless there are meaningful changes in trends in media consumption or ad inventory management,those countries may be relatively less effective places to spend.The widest gaps of this nature among the top-20 markets include the UK,Mexico,Australia,Indonesia and Spain.3THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR6|WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019IntroductionGrowth with Fragile Foundations in 2019.On its face,the global economy appears to be healthy and growing.However,it would be equally apt to use the words the OECD chose in its May 2019 report characterizing conditions as“fragile,”warning that,“trade and policy uncertainties could significantly damage the world economy and further contribute to the growing divide between people.”Escalating trade tensions especially between the United States and China,but also among the US and other parts of the world,and disruptions in Europe depending on how Brexit plays out along with broader and sometimes overlapping geopolitical disputes have weakened the foundations of a global economy built on trade.Other factors supporting growth may also be temporary,such as increases in consumer and corporate spending associated with changes in tax policies if those policies do not lead to an improvement in long-term economic efficiency.At the same time,narrow distributions of economic gains within societies represent additional potential sources of long-term risk,at least relative to something broader in its nature.We can see the global advertising industry in a similar light,with emerging signs of deceleration.While global advertising trends reported on a headline basis are forecast to grow by+3.4%in 2019(down from+6.9%in 2018),this result is heavily skewed by US political advertising,which by itself accounted for 1.5%of the worlds advertising total last year and will represent more with every passing election cycle.If we removed our estimates for this category in the US alone(the only market where the category meaningfully distorts growth rates),our reported 6.9%growth rate for 2018 would look more like+5.6%.2019 would be+4.6%excluding US political advertising rather than the+3.4%headline figure.Notably,all of these growth figures would be lower than if a broader definition of media were used(including direct mail and directories,for example).Slight Global Acceleration into 2020.Aggregating expectations from around the world,our rolled-up forecast does look more favorable for 2020 with ex-US political growth of+4.7%,or+6.0%including it.While some large markets such as the US should decelerate slightly,more than half of the territories we track will post better growth than vs.2019,and median growth will rise from+3.3%in 2019 to+3.8%in 2020.Some of the underlying improvement in 2020 is not directly associated with the economy and is instead due to the Olympics and World Cup,which can skew results in many countries around the world.Inflation,expected to fall a range of between 3%and 4%globally is also supporting this outcome,although it is not anticipated to be meaningfully different vs.2019 or 2018.China,Brazil,India and the UK Look Particularly Resilient.At a country level,outside of the US,China,Japan,India,the UK and Brazil collectively account for well over half of global growth in each of 2019 and 2020,and so deserve some focus here.China,which represents one-sixth of global advertising,is also notable among the faster-growing countries because its absolute gain is once again so large.Growth in 2020 is expected to be+5.6%vs.2019 which should be more like+5.2%a slowdown from pre-2018 levels,but still rapid vs.most other global markets.Brazil,now neck-and-neck with Germany for its standing as the worlds fifth-largest advertising market,stands out the most for its reversal from a-0.9%decline in 2019 to a+6.1%gain in 2020,in part aided by a rebound on easy comparables,given conservative expectations this year and mid-single-digit inflation,despite mixed conditions for its overall economy.India is not forecast to be bothered by global challenges,although as with elsewhere,downside risks remain.Still,the country should still see double-digit growth in 2019(+14%)and 2020(+13%),allowing it to surpass Australia and Canada in size by next year as the worlds eighth-largest ad market.As for the UK,growth THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR7|WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 201920122013201420152016201720182019f2020fNorth America173,095174,427181,175185,976200,218208,845228,290234,668253,742YOY%3.80.83.92.67.74.39.32.88.1LatinAmerica19,85223,30824,84226,30424,18725,43128,42928,38930,012YOY%7.217.46.65.9-8.05.111.8-0.15.7WesternEurope89,12487,87490,28292,51195,81999,853103,682106,874109,815YOY%-2.9-1.42.72.53.64.23.83.12.8Central&Eastern Europe11,03411,41311,69711,67312,71414,05915,35816,06017,004YOY%5.33.42.5-0.28.910.69.24.65.9Asia-Pacifi c(all)135,086144,404152,871162,093171,189179,865189,283198,542209,079YOY%7.86.95.96.05.65.15.24.95.3North Asia70,57077,00582,15087,64292,89998,210104,144109,301115,177YOY%10.79.16.76.76.05.76.05.05.4Asean10,49411,57212,28513,63014,55715,50115,56616,56417,857YOY%10.710.36.210.96.86.50.46.47.8Middle East&Africa8,9579,2388,2748,4746,9936,4346,1216,1776,331YOY%11.03.1-10.42.4-17.5-8.0-4.90.92.5World437,148450,665469,141487,031511,119534,488571,162590,709625,983YOY%3.83.14.13.84.94.66.93.46.0INTROMedia summary2018 2019f 2020f228,290234,668253,74228,42928,38930,012103,682106,874109,81515,35816,06017,004189,283198,542209,079104,144109,301115,17715,56616,56417,8576,1216,1776,331NorthAmericaWesternEuropeLatin AmericaCentral&Eastern EuropeAsia-Pacific(all)North AsiaAseanMiddle East&Africa228,290234,668THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR8|WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019INTROTop contributors 2019 USDmmUSAChinaCanadaJapanIndiaUKSwedenGermanyFrancePhilippines5,5854,7167921,4641,4521,642231280393533in advertising of more than+6.1%this year and+4.6%next makes the worlds fourth-largest ad market one of its healthiest,despite all of the uncertainties surrounding the country in the face of Brexit.Digital Advertising,the Largest Medium.By medium,it should be unsurprising that internet-related activity now accounts for the largest share of activity tracked here,capturing 50%of the worlds total in 2020,up from 25%only in 2014.Rather than benefitting exclusively from shifts of spending among advertisers and some have occurred since then,to be sure in any given year growth is generally driven by expanding numbers of distinct advertisers whose spending is skewed toward digital advertising.For example,newly established small businesses are more likely to operate nationally and internationally than on a purely local basis as may have been the case in prior decades.Further,the emergence of internet-endemic app developers and related services as advertisers several of which now spend more than$1bn annually on advertising,skewed toward digital media has served as a meaningful source of growth as well.While we are skeptical that significant amounts of ad spending will shift into media from non-media sources(such as trade promotion budgets directed to e-commerce platforms),given the silos that necessarily exist within large marketers,new sources of spending could still emerge.For example,we can estimate that the“China Export Market”(marketers based in China who advertise outside of their home country,and then sell and ship their products abroad)could spend$10bn on Facebook in countries outside of China this year.Twitter and Snap have also indicated that this source of revenue is meaningful for them,and the same will likely be true for Google,too.Double-digit Growth for Digital Continues.For 2019 and 2020,we forecast growth of+13%in each year as digital advertising expands from$241bn in 2018 to$308bn in 2020.However,as digital media continues to mature,its share of spending will eventually plateau.Necessarily,growth will then slow with each passing year to eventually converge with global averages.Alternative scenarios seem unrealistic,unless relatively drastic measures are taken(for example,if todays digital-focused media owners invest more aggressively in content to more directly replace content presently distributed by traditional media owners,eroding the margins of the digital-media owners).Other media still realizes significant usage and generally broad reach,if less than in the past,and continues to offer marketers high levels of effectiveness,and so is unlikely to be eliminated any time soon.THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR9|WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019TV,the Stable Staple.Television,set to account for 30%of advertising in 2020,has lost share over time as growth has essentially flattened.Worldwide we expect the medium to fall-3.0%in 2019 before rising in 2020 by+1.5%.This volatility is primarily due to activity in the United States,which represents 36%of the worlds total,and which is heavily impacted by political advertising.Excluding it,we forecast declines of-1.7%this year and-0.6%during 2020.Connected TV and other“advanced”forms of the medium are helping to improve sentiment among advertisers toward television.However,except where new approaches to trading television allow sellers to expand which advertisers can cost-effectively buy the medium(likely true for emerging direct-to-consumer brands),most of the“advance”will result in a shifting of spend among media owners within a given country.Print Sees No Respite from Recent Trends.Substitutable as it generally is by digital media,print is the weakest medium tracked here.Newspapers are,unsurprisingly,set to decline again in 2019 and 2020,down-9.3%and-5.8%,respectively,and amounting to$38bn in ad revenue next year.This represents 6.0%of the worlds total,down from 34%20 years earlier.Although the United States represents its largest share of activity and also its most significant declines,weak trends are generally widespread globally:the median decline is-6.8%this year and-4.6%next year.Some of the biggest markets are,in fact,relatively healthy by comparison,with Germany expected to be down only-3.%this year and next year,and India set to represent 7.0%of the worlds total next year actually forecast to grow by+2.6%in 2019 and by another+1.8%in 2020.Magazines face broadly similar trends with a-9.3%decline anticipated in 2019 and-7.7%in 2020,leading to a 3.3%global share next year.The US is a much more important factor here,representing nearly half of the worlds market,and so their faster declines drive much of the worldwide outcome.Some key markets such as France and Japan are both anticipating nearly double-digit reductions INTROin spending during both years,but others such as Germany and the UK have more modest expectations of decline.Outdoor and Radio Should See Slight Growth.Media which is largely based on its capacity to reach consumers away from home is faring much better than print;and ultimately,is more immune to competition from the worlds digital giants,at least without significant incremental investment on their parts.Outdoor advertising,6.4%of the worlds total this year,is somewhat compressed in 2019 with very little overall growth,but this is primarily because of the difficult comparable produced by US political advertising during 2018;growth should rebound in 2020,in part because of a return of US political.In Asia which now accounts for nearly half of the mediums global total,including its#2,#3 and#4 markets in China,Japan and South Korea similarly low underlying growth is anticipated there as well.We see similar expectations for the biggest European markets,the UK and Germany,and median growth of slightly more than+3%in both of 2019 and 2020 for the medium in countries around the world.Radio is slightly smaller with closer to 5.3%global share and slightly weaker growth trends a decline of-2.2%in 2019 and a gain of+0.5%in 2020 although US political advertising distorts this number as well.Median growth for countries around the world is expected to be+1%in both years.THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR10|WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019GroupMs long-term forecast model has one principal independent variable:the IMFs calculation of each countrys share of global GDP at PPP.This is intended merely for scenario planning.GDP forecasts know nothi