瑞信-亚太地区-科技行业-亚洲硬件科技行业反馈：2020年5G将爆发尽管1-3月存在短期调整风险-2019.9.12-83页.pdf

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.12 September 2019 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Technology Technology sector Research Analysts Akinori Kanemoto 81 3 4550 7363 akinori.kanemotocredit- Hideyuki Maekawa 81 3 4550 9723 hideyuki.maekawacredit- Mika Nishimura 81 3 4550 7369 mika.nishimuracredit- Yoshiyasu Takemura 81 3 4550 7358 yoshiyasu.takemuracredit- Sayaka Shimonishi 81 3 4550 7364 sayaka.shimonishicredit- Daisuke Tanimoto 81 3 4550 7371 daisuke.tanimotocredit- COMMENT Asia feedback(Hardware):“5G fanfare”in 2020 albeit short-term adjustment risk at JanMar Summary:We conducted our periodic survey of the Korean,Taiwanese and Chinese tech markets in late Augearly Sep.As in our previous survey,end demand shows no sign of picking up.Despite ongoing inventory adjustments,chiefly in Greater China,channel inventories of automotive applications remain a burden,but we see improvement in MLCCs and other IT-related products.On the other hand,we expect a rush in smartphone,PC,TV,and other hardware demand ahead of US tariffs,and makers are likely to expedite component procurement and finished-product output in preparation for the Lunar New Year.Add in the risk of LTE-smartphone output adjustments before 5G rollout,and we see a risk of output adjustments heading into JanMar.That said,expectations for 5G are rising sharply as 2020 approaches;2020 production plans point to total 5G chipset output over 500mn units,and the industry seems increasingly upbeat on the outlook for 5G smartphones.Focal points in hardware&devices:(1)Makers target 5G-chipset output of 500mn units in 2020,and 5G smartphone output is likely to reach 250300mn unitsa boon for RF front ends;(2)Chinese smartphone output plans point to only a slight QoQ decline in OctDec,but we flag the risk of LTE smartphone output adjustments before full rollout of 5G models in MarApr CY20;(3)Apple apparently plans to produce 200mn iPhones in 2019 but is likely to follow its usual habit of revising forecasts after watching new model sales and has likely expedited production(mainly previous models)from JanMar CY20,when we see a risk of adjustments before the new iPhone SE launches.iPhone plans as of early September call for output of 208mn units in 2019(including 81mn for 2019 models).(4)Smartphone-related makers continue to upgrade CIS and camera module specs.Stock calls:In electronic components,device-maker inventories remain high.We expect further adjustment in automotive component inventory but are upbeat on normalizing channel inventories for IT-related applications(especially MLCCs)as the sector looks ready to emerge from its trough.Notable near-term risks heading into JanMar CY20 are a snapback decline in device procurement and finished-product output(expedited before tariff hikes and the Lunar New Year),and iPhone adjustments.Fundamentals have not improved,but component stocks markedly underperformed over the past year.It now seems wise to start building investment positions that anticipate inventory adjustments ending and 5G-related upside over the next six months.Our three top picks are Murata Mfg(6981),Taiyo Yuden(6976),and Rohm(6963)the beneficiary of a cyclical recovery.Our top pick in the semiconductor/SPE sector is Anritsu(6754),a core holding in the 5G space.Advantest(6857)also tends to be a market favorite,though it is richly valued.We advise caution with respect to SPE stocks given the risk of LTE smartphone inventory destocking.In the consumer-electronics sector,Sony(6758)remains our top pick.12 September 2019 Technology sector 2 Key charts Figure 1:Global smartphone production volume(quarterly)Figure 2:Smartphone production volume by Chinese makers(quarterly)Source:Credit Suisse estimates Source:Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3:iPhone production forecasts(as of March,June,September 2019)Source:Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4:5G Chipsets production plan Source:Credit Suisse estimates 60 75 85 100 103 129 135 139 130 160 155 160 165 183 188 198 152 165 186 184 153 181 195 172 164 198 169 165 71 79 88 86 87 77 80 74 82 70 82 84 81 76 75 79 80 80 87 74 78 70 71 70 69 79 80 67 33 28 37 60 32 28 50 80 58 60 55 75 40 41 57 88 43 40 50 97 51 40 57 76 37 34 58 79 15 19 16 16 16 21 22 23 19 20 19 20 17 18 17 18 17 15 15 15 12 11 10 11 8 9 9 9 40 44 44 45 41 48 57 63 53 58 58 60 43 50 47 56 42 41 41 40 35 35 35 35 28 28 28 28-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0501001502002503003504004505001Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q3QE 4QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019mn unitsChina SmartphonesSamsung SmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCOthersYOY%Chg.60 75 85 100 103 129 135 139 130 160 155 160 165 183 188 198 152 165 186 184 153 181 195 172 164 198 169 165-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002501Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q3QE 4QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019mn unitsSmartphone production by Chinese makersyoy%chg.iPhone productioniPhone productionCY17CY18 CY19 CY19FY3/18FY3/19as of as of mn unitsmn units1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE1Q2QE 3QE 4QE1Q2Q3QE 4QE19/619/9 iPhone 5s/5c/4s1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NANA0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.80.00.00.00.00.0 iPhone SE1.83.73.93.93.81.52.10.00.00.0NANA0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.013.47.40.00.015.43.6 iPhone 62.16.55.55.36.02.52.10.00.00.0NANA0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.019.410.50.00.023.34.5 iPhone 6 plus0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NANA0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 iPhone 6s4.13.62.42.23.41.51.44.25.03.0NANA4.31.71.90.14.31.42.30.212.310.48.08.211.611.4 iPhone 6s Plus1.42.12.51.51.01.20.61.31.60.8NANA1.40.60.40.11.40.50.70.17.44.12.52.77.14.4 iPhone 716.513.19.99.13.13.42.83.54.33.5NANA5.03.63.83.25.03.33.96.048.512.715.618.235.114.7 iPhone 7 Plus15.911.06.13.82.31.81.10.61.31.4NANA1.10.80.91.11.10.81.01.136.85.83.94.023.24.6 iPhone 80.00.09.618.59.010.68.47.66.05.0NANA5.74.24.54.55.74.13.74.828.135.518.918.337.132.3 iPhone 8 Plus0.00.09.816.111.08.66.64.73.11.8NANA2.81.71.21.72.81.31.11.125.930.97.46.336.922.7 iPhone X0.00.00.036.811.68.44.14.31.20.4NANA1.20.60.00.01.20.60.00.036.828.41.81.848.518.0 iPhone XR0.00.00.00.00.00.03.327.511.514.3NANA10.014.810.58.910.013.511.111.9-30.844.246.40.040.8 iPhone XS0.00.00.00.00.00.010.68.93.02.7NANA2.64.12.31.62.63.61.52.6-19.510.610.40.022.1 iPhone XS Max0.00.00.00.00.00.013.913.02.82.6NANA2.95.42.30.02.95.02.20.0-26.910.610.10.029.8 iPhone XI R0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NANANANA0.00.115.523.80.00.014.624.9-39.439.50.00.0 iPhone XI0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NANANANA0.00.06.810.20.00.06.811.1-17.117.90.00.0 iPhone XI Max0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NANANANA0.00.08.814.20.00.08.815.3-23.024.10.00.0Total43.440.149.797.351.139.556.975.539.835.5NANA37.137.859.069.337.134.157.779.0230.4223.0203.1207.9238.1208.9CY2018CY2017As of Sept 19CY2019As of March 19CY2019As of June 19CY20195G SOC,BB+AP production forecast20192020AP/BB/SOCProduct nameProcessFoundrymn unitsmn unitsCustomerHisiliconBalong 5000(+Kirin 980/985/710)7nm ProTSMC515HuaweiHisiliconKirin 9907nm EUVTSMC1750HuaweiHisiliconKirin 8207nm EUVTSMC1100HuaweiQualcommX50(+SDM855)8nmSamsung40Mainly China,Samsung,LGQualcommX55(+SDM865)7nm ProTSMC1160Mainly China,Samsung,LGQualcommX55(+Apple A13/14)AP5nm/7nm Pro+BB7nm Pro TSMC090AppleQualcommSDM72507nm EUVSamsung490Mainly China,Samsung,LG,othersQualcommSDM6250(3Q20 MP)8nm?7nm?SamsungNANAMainly China,Samsung,LG,othersSamsung LSIExynos 96308nmSamsung350Samsung,Lenovo,Xiaomi,vivoSamsung LSI5G Modem+AP7nm EUV/5nmEUVSamsung015Samsung FlagshipMediatekM70 SoC(1Q-2Q20),Midend SoC(3Q20)7nm EUVTSMC145Mainly ChinaTotal46515 12 September 2019 Technology sector 3 Table of contents Key charts.2 Overview 5 Inventory adjustment continues,no sign of recovery.5 Smartphones 5 Tablets 5 PCs 5 Nintendo Switch 5 Devices in short supply 6 MLCCs 6 Hardware production trends implications for stocks.7 Electronic component sector 7 Semiconductor and SPE sector 7 CIS/display sector 8 Smartphone production 11 5G bonanza coming in 2020,but we also see risk of LTE inventory adjustments and JanMar iPhone correction 11 iPhone production trend.13 iPhone production schedule 13 Trends by model 16 2019 and 2020 models 18 Samsung Electronics smartphone production:Outlook slightly scaled back.20 Key takeaways 20 Samsung production schedule 20 Trends by model 21 Samsung Electronics Key points 24 Growth in consignment production of the low-end A series to a Chinese ODM 24 Chinese smartphone production.30 Key takeaways 30 Market update 30 New features and technologies in Chinese smartphones 32 Huawei:Plans to keep 2019 smartphone production at 230240mn units.In 2020,it aims to expand 5G phone sales in China but exports are a question mark.34 Oppo:Flagship models struggling,sales sluggish in ASEAN region 41 Vivo:No noteworthy changes 47 Xiaomi:CY19 production plans fall back to initial levels 52 12 September 2019 Technology sector 4 5G-related trends 62 Our view based on market survey.62 RMB1,500 5G smartphones by 2H 2020 63 Outlook for 5G smartphone market 64 Others 67 Appendix 70 12 September 2019 Technology sector 5 Overview Inventory adjustment continues,no sign of recovery Smartphones Our Japanese technology team estimates global smartphone production totaled 1,464mn units(5%YoY)in CY17 and 1,396mn(5%)in CY18.For CY19,our estimate has increased slightly from 1,332mn units(5%)at the time of the March survey(1,343mn,4%at the time of the previous June survey),to 1,344mn(4%)now.We estimate quarterly production in CY18 at 326mn units(20%QoQ,3%YoY)in JanMar,336mn(+3%,2%)in AprJun,365mn(+9%,4%)in JulSep,and 363mn(1%,11%)in OctDec.Our CY19 estimates in the June survey were 306mn units(16%QoQ,7%YoY)for JanMar,355mn(+16%,+5%)for AprJun,350mn(1%,5%)for JulSep,and 322mn(5%,9%)for OctDec.We now revise these estimates to 306mn units(16%QoQ,7%YoY)for JanMar,347mn(+13%,+3%)for AprJun,343mn(1%,7%)for JulSep,and 347mn(+1%,5%)for OctDec.As of early September,Apples annual CY19 production plan for the iPhone is a total of 208mn units(7%YoY),comprising 37mn units(51%QoQ,28%YoY)in JanMar,34mn(8%,14%)in AprJun,58mn(+59%,+1%)in JulSep,and 79mn(+37%,+5%)in OctDec.In new models,the company evidentially plans to make a total of 81mn units in new models this year(40mn units of the iPhone 11,18mn units of the iPhone 11 Pro,24mn units of the iPhone 11 Pro Max)with quarterly output of zero units in AprJun,30mn units(14.5mn,6.57mn,8.59mn)in JulSep,and 51mn(25mn,11mn,1515.5mn)in OctDec.This surveys three key takeaways for smartphones are:(1)Planned CY20 production of 5G chipsets exceeds 500mn units,and output of 5G handsets may reach 250300mn.(2)Chinese smartphone production plans are for a slight QoQ decline in OctDec,but with a risk of LTE smartphone production adjustment ahead of full-scale 5G model launch in MarApr 2020.(3)iPhone production is planned for over 200mn units in CY19,but given that production plans are usually revised after new model launches and that the 2019 plan is likely to include some front-loading of JanMar 2020 production(mainly old models),there is a risk of a production adjustment during this JanMar period ahead of the new iPhone SE launch.Please refer to the report published on August 28 2019 for the smartphone market view of CS Asia team(link).Tablets There has been no noteworthy change to production plans.Output is stable.Apples annual CY19 production plan for the iPad is a total of 53mn units(flat YoY),comprising 12mn units(21%QoQ,20%YoY)in JanMar,11mn units(6%,3%)in AprJun,18mn units(+62%,+46%)in JulSep,and 12mn units(30%,16%)in OctDec.PCs There has been no noteworthy change to annual production plans.However,AprJun and JulSep appear to have seen some front-loading of production and related materials procurement ahead of the hike in US tariffs on Chinese imports,which could result in a snapback decline from JanMar 2020.Nintendo Switch Switch output in 2019 is planned at 1820mn units on a CY base and 2022mn units on an FY base.It appears that production of existing models is expected to reach 1.51.6mn 12 September 2019 Technology sector 6 units in AprJun,5.05.1mn in JulSep,and 3.53.6mn in OctDec.Production of new models(Switch Lite)started in March and is projected at around 1.71.8mn units in AprJun,more than 4.5mn units in JulSep,and fewer than 3.5mn units in OctDec.Based on the part procurement volume,production looks set to reach around 18mn units in CY19.Devices in short supply CISs remain in tight supply owing to an increase in die size and the number of cameras per smartphone.We also seem to be seeing a tightening of supply for TCXOs and tuning fork-type crystal oscillators.This appears to be due to Japanese crystal makers restricting the supply of unprofitable items,as well as to an increase in the use of NB-IOT modules in the manufacture of a range of meters and fire alarms in China.MLCCs Distribution stage inventory Some sales agencies continue to hold excess inventory due to the offloading of inventory by MLCC makers.However,with Chinese sales agents moving to clearing their excesses,overall it looks like distribution stage inventory will return to a healthy level at the end of JulSep.While capacity utilization remains low,the level of orders from Chinese sales agents,among other indicators,suggests a gradual recovery.For automotive MLCCs,inventory adjustment remains severe among Chinese Tier 1 suppliers,and there are no signs of recovery among European and US Tier 1 suppliers either.Nevertheless,an end to inventory adjustment during OctDec appears to be widely anticipated.Capacity utilization MLCC capacity utilization in JulSep appears to be in the 3050%range for Taiwanese makers,7080%percent for Korean makers,and around 7090%for Japanese makers.Some Japanese makers that do not manufacture general-use MLCCs continue to operate at full capacity.Pricing By the end of JulSep,price reductions since OctDec 2018 have already driven the prices of some products manufactured by Taiwanese and Korean makers down to where they were before supplies grew tight.Our survey indicates that it would be hard for makers to drop prices further.The prices of Taiwanese and Korean makers MLCCs appear to have fallen by 5070%from the JulSep 2018 peak for low-end products and by around 3050%for midrange products(however,Taiwanese and Korean makers previously raised their prices more than Japanese makers did,making it unlikely that Japanese makers will face demands for similarly steep price reductions).Some Japanese MLCC makers have also implemented price reductions from JulSep.Howe