瑞信-亚太地区-金融业-澳大利亚金融业：财报季风险呈下降趋势-2019.2.4-51页.pdfVIP免费

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.4February2019AsiaPacific/AustraliaEquityResearchDiversifiedFinancialsAustralianDiversifiedFinancialsPRERESULTSCOMMENTResearchAnalystsJamesCordukes,CFA61282054858james.cordukes@credit-suisse.comAndrewAdams61282054106andrew.adams@credit-suisse.comAnnaMilne61282054369anna.milne@credit-suisse.comReportingseasonrisksskewedtodownsideWegenerallyseemoredownsideriskamongstthediversifiedfinancialsaheadofreportingseason.Howeverfollowingasectorde-ratingweexpectthatthosewhodeliveronearningscouldseeapositivesharepriceresponse.Resultswithdownsideearningsrisk■CGF:Despiteapre-announcedresult,westillseescopefordownsiderisk.Flowscoulddisappoint,detailsintheresultcouldraiseconcernsoffurtherCOEmargincompressionanddiscussiononregulatorytailwindscouldbelessoptimisticthaninthepast.■CPU:Adeteriorationinoperatingconditionslatein1H19EreducesthelikelihoodofanupgradetoFY19Eguidance.WhileweexpectCPUcanstillmeetitsguidance,thiscouldstilldisappointsomewhowereexpectinganupgradeincludingconsensus(whosit~4%abovetheguidance).■NWL:ConsensusearningsappeartoohighwiththisresultholdingthepotentialtoseeconsensusdowngradestorevenueandEBITDAmargins.■IFL:WhilethefocuswillbeontheimpactofAPRA'sactions,theRoyalCommissionandANZacquisition,thereisdownsideearningsriskduetoacostmiss(highercostinflationduetocompliance/regulatoryburden).■PTM:DespiteFuMbeingknownandpostbalancedateguidanceonperformancefeesandinvestmentincome,consensusforecastslooktoohighposingdownsideearningsrisk.Theflowsoutlookcouldalsobebleak.■HUB:Thereispotentialfordisappointmentonrevenuemargins(clientmix,competition)andEBITD...