瑞信-美股-航空航天与国防行业-2019年美国商业航空航天展望-2019.1.22-59页.pdfVIP免费

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.S:/IMAGELIBRARY/2015-03-04CSEquityResearchTemplate.pptxCredit:StaffSgt.StephanyRichardsviaWikimediaCreditSuisseEquityResearchAmericas/UnitedStatesAerospace&Defense2019CommercialAerospaceOutlookSeventhInningStretchIncludingtheResultsofourLatestBuysideSurveyJanuary22,2019RobertSpingarn+1.212.538.1895robert.spingarn@credit-suisse.comJoeCaiado+1.212.325.6771jose.caiado@credit-suisse.comAudreyPreston+1.212.325.2709audrey.preston@credit-suisse.comScottDeuschle+1.212.325.6116scott.deuschle@credit-suisse.comTableofContentsI.ExecutiveSummaryII.SectorPerformanceIII.CommercialAerospaceIV.GeneralAviation(BizjetandRotorcraft)V.BuysideSurveyResultsVI.CompanySnapshots**Ourtargetpricechangesareoutlinedinournote2019CommercialAerospaceOutlook2OverviewExecutiveSummary:OurViewon2019CommercialOE:Visibilityremainsgood.Overall,weremainconstructiveonOE-drivennames,thoughwearemoremindfulofslowingtrafficgrowthamidamorefragilemacroeconomicoutlook.Thatsaid,slowingtraffictypicallyimpactsaftermarketbeforeOE.Therefore,wefavornameswithhigherOEmix,andparticularlythosewithhigherOEprofitmix.Multi-yearbacklogsremainintact,andorderactivityisstillrobustwhichshouldinsulateproductionratesandcashflowsfromanybrief,economicslowdownin2019or2020.However,amoresevereeconomiccorrectionwouldbeexpectedtopressuremultiplesevenasEPS/FCFslargelyholdup(asin2008/09).OurtoppickisBoeing,whichbenefitsfromboththemacrobackdropdescribedabove(2018b:bof1.1x)withfurthersupportfromacompellingmicro(risingmargins/strongCFs)story,andashareholder-friendlycapitalreturnplan.Further,weexpectfewersupplierdisruptionst...