瑞信-日本-科技行业-亚洲硬件反馈：这个季节樱花数量有限-2019.2.13-71页.pdf

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.13 March 2019Asia Pacific/JapanEquity ResearchTechnology Technology sector COMMENTResearch AnalystsAkinori Kanemoto81 3 4550 7363akinori.kanemotocredit-Hideyuki Maekawa81 3 4550 9723hideyuki.maekawacredit-Mika Nishimura81 3 4550 7369mika.nishimuracredit-Yoshiyasu Takemura 81 3 4550 7358yoshiyasu.takemuracredit-Sayaka Shimonishi81 3 4550 7364sayaka.shimonishicredit-Asia Feedback(Hardware):Limited cherry blossoms this season Summary:We conducted our periodic survey of the Korean,Taiwanese and Chinese tech markets in late Febearly Mar.The sales and order adjustments in Greater China noted in our previous survey show no sign of recovery even after the Lunar New Year,and end-demand remains weak.With sales-agent and device-maker sentiment cooling off,we see limited visibility for recovery from 2H.Of the smartphone-related names caught up in the US-China trade friction,we think only Huawei will prevail,owing to Chinese government subsidies.Despite Samsungs rollout of the Galaxy S10 and A-series,we expect sluggishness elsewhereat other Chinese makers and for the iPhone.Huawei is expediting device procurement,including for base stations,in view of brisk smartphone sales and the risk of the US government blocking the supply of such parts in its ongoing trade dispute with China.Focal points in hardware and devices:(1)Huawei shipped 23.5mn smartphones in January and looks set to produce over 60mn units in JanMar 2019(5556mn in OctDec 2018).The company raised its 2019 target to 260270mn,but parts procurement may peak in 1Q.Other Chinese smartphone makers are likely to remain in a slump.(2)We expect iPhone output to rise from 37mn units in JanMar 2019(22%YoY,45%QoQ)to 45mn in AprJun(+21%,+13%).However,device makers project just under 40mn for AprJun and 180190mn(15%YoY)for 2019.(3)Samsung projects annual output of 280290mn units but Galaxy S10 output looks on track to hit 40mn,topping the initial target(35mn),and A-series output is up sharply since March.(4)Makers continue to upgrade camera-module specs and may introduce 64MP and 108MP sensors in 2020 as upgrades to 48MP resolutions.(5)Components in tight supply include high-end base-station and automotive MLCCs,power semiconductors and CMOS image sensors(CIS)(especially low-resolution ones)owing to multi-camera smartphones.Stock calls:In the electronics components sector,we maintain our cautious stance.We still favor Murata(6981)and Taiyo Yuden(6976),which should benefit in the medium term from growth in MLCC,and Nidec(6594)and Rohm(6963),which should gain from vehicle electrification.However,we see a growing risk of many components makers initially guiding for FY3/20 profit deterioration,with a few exceptions such as Kyocera(6971)and Nidec where one-time issues should end.In the semiconductor/SPE sector,total hardware production volume is still trending lower YoY,and utilization rates at Taiwanese foundries remain lackluster.We thus expect companies that depend on high operating rate-linked demand(such as Disco(6146),Tokyo Seimitsu(7729),Towa(6315),SUMCO(3436)and Shin-Etsu Chemical(4063)will continue to face a difficult business environment.We also see no signs of any turnaround in memory prices.We accordingly maintain our cautious investment stance on the semiconductor/SPE sector.Further,we think HDD-related stocks are also facing increasingly challenging conditions in 2019,as PCs are increasingly likely to come with SSDs.In the consumer electronics sector,we continue to recommend Sony(6758)for ongoing profit growth in CIS.13 March 2019Technology sector2Key chartsFigure 1:Global smartphone output(quarterly)Figure 2:Chinese maker smartphone output(quarterly)1020 203020405060 607585100 103129135139130160155160165183188198152165186 184153181195172153173186 188112028374451586371798886877780 748270 828481767579808087747870717071767071211820333427245933283760322850805860557540415788434050975140577437454562141918161215151615191616162122231920 19201718171817151515121110119999534649534137434440444445414857635358 586043504756424141403535353530303030-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0501001502002503003504004505001Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q181Q19E 3Q19Emn unitsChina SmartphonesSamsung SmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCOthersYOY%Chg.1020203020405060607585100103129135139130160155160165183188198152165186184153181195172153173186188-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002501Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q19Emn unitsSmartphone production by Chinese makersyoy%chg.Source:Credit Suisse estimatesSource:Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 3:iPhone quarterly output projections(as of end-Nov 2018,Jan 2019,Mar 2019)iPhone productionCY17 CY18FY3/18FY3/19CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019mn units1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4Q1QE2QE iPhone 5s/5c/4s1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.80.00.00.0 iPhone SE1.83.73.93.93.81.52.10.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.00.013.47.415.43.6 iPhone 62.16.55.55.36.02.52.10.06.02.52.10.00.06.02.52.20.20.16.02.52.10.00.10.119.410.523.34.6 iPhone 6 plus0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 iPhone 6s4.13.62.42.23.41.51.44.23.41.51.41.93.63.41.51.42.25.53.41.51.44.24.44.512.310.411.611.5 iPhone 6s Plus1.42.12.51.51.01.20.61.31.01.20.61.31.11.01.20.60.71.31.01.20.61.31.41.37.44.17.14.4 iPhone 716.513.19.99.13.13.42.83.43.13.42.83.33.13.13.42.84.15.03.13.42.83.44.73.848.512.635.114.3 iPhone 7 Plus15.911.06.13.82.31.81.10.62.31.81.10.62.02.31.81.10.62.32.31.81.10.61.51.636.85.823.24.9 iPhone 80.00.09.618.59.010.68.47.59.010.68.47.97.19.010.68.46.97.09.010.68.47.55.75.528.135.437.132.1 iPhone 8 Plus0.00.09.816.111.08.66.64.611.08.65.54.65.111.08.66.64.03.011.08.66.64.64.12.425.930.836.923.9 iPhone X0.00.00.036.811.68.44.14.511.68.44.14.61.111.68.44.15.01.011.68.44.14.50.10.436.828.648.517.1 iPhone XR-0.00.03.326.70.00.03.327.323.30.00.03.326.712.20.00.03.326.710.017.5-30.00.040.0 iPhone XS-0.00.010.69.10.00.010.610.45.90.00.010.610.24.50.00.010.69.12.63.7-19.70.022.3 iPhone XS Max-0.00.013.912.70.00.013.915.56.90.00.013.914.34.00.00.013.912.72.23.9-26.60.028.8Total43.440.149.797.351.139.556.974.451.139.555.877.559.151.139.557.075.145.851.139.556.974.436.844.7230.4221.9238.1207.6iPhone productionCY17 CY18FY3/18FY3/19CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019mn units1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1QE1Q2Q3QE4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4Q1QE2QE iPhone 5s/5c/4s1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.80.00.00.0 iPhone SE1.83.73.93.93.81.52.10.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.00.013.47.415.43.6 iPhone 62.16.55.55.36.02.52.10.06.02.52.10.00.06.02.52.10.00.06.02.52.10.00.00.019.410.523.34.5 iPhone 6 plus0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 iPhone 6s4.13.62.42.23.41.51.44.23.41.51.43.94.83.41.51.44.75.53.41.51.44.25.03.012.310.411.612.1 iPhone 6s Plus1.42.12.51.51.01.20.61.31.01.20.61.31.01.01.20.61.61.31.01.20.61.31.60.87.44.17.14.6 iPhone 716.513.19.99.13.13.42.83.43.13.42.83.25.13.13.42.84.04.43.13.42.83.44.33.548.512.635.113.8 iPhone 7 Plus15.911.06.13.82.31.81.10.62.31.81.10.62.42.31.81.10.62.02.31.81.10.61.31.436.85.823.24.8 iPhone 80.00.09.618.59.010.68.47.59.010.68.49.19.29.010.68.49.37.79.010.68.47.56.05.028.135.437.132.5 iPhone 8 Plus0.00.09.816.111.08.66.64.611.08.66.65.64.411.08.66.65.14.711.08.66.64.63.11.825.930.836.922.9 iPhone X0.00.00.036.811.68.44.14.511.68.44.14.60.011.68.44.14.70.911.68.44.14.51.20.436.828.648.518.3 iPhone XR-0.00.03.326.70.00.03.329.819.00.00.03.327.711.90.00.03.326.711.514.3-30.00.041.5 iPhone XS-0.00.010.69.10.00.010.610.44.90.00.010.68.94.40.00.010.69.13.02.7-19.70.022.6 iPhone XS Max-0.00.013.912.70.00.013.914.77.20.00.013.912.64.50.00.013.912.72.82.6-26.60.029.3Total43.440.149.797.351.139.556.974.451.139.556.983.457.851.139.556.979.247.251.139.556.974.439.835.5230.4221.9238.1210.6Production Forecast for EMSAs of early MarchEMSCY2017As of early Jan 19As of late NovCY2018As of early Jan 19As of late NovCY2018P Pr ro od du uc ct ti io on n f fo or re ec ca as st t t to o d de ev vi ic ce e m ma ak ke er rs sAs of early MarchCY2017EMSComponentComponent Source:Credit Suisse estimates13 March 2019Technology sector3Table of contentsKey charts2Overview5Ongoing adjustments,only Huawei recovers after Lunar New Year.5Smartphones5Tablets6PCs6Nintendo Switch6Devices in short supply6MLCCs6Hardware production trends implications for stocks.7Electronic component sector7Semiconductor/SPE sector7Panel/CIS sector8Smartphone production11No sign of improvement;Huawei the sole winner11iPhone production:Production cuts could impact through April or May.13Key takeaways13iPhone production schedule13Trends by model152019 and 2020 models18Samsung Electronics smartphone production:GS10 above projection;increase in new A series output.20Key takeaways20Samsung production schedule:2019 output tracking in line with production target for 280290mn units20Trends by model21Samsung smartphone devices:all 2019 models but one are multi-camera23Chinese smartphone production:Huawei the sole winner.28Key takeaways28Chinese smartphone production volume28New features and technologies in Chinese smartphones29Huawei:Upside to 260270mn units in 201932Oppo:Aggressive target as usual,but weak momentum persists37Vivo:No noteworthy changes,not going all out41Xiaomi:Mi9 doing well,but YoY decline possible in 2019 as low-end unprofitable models get axed4513 March 2019Technology sector45G-related trends53Our view based on our market survey.53Others55Appendix5713 March 2019Technology sector5OverviewOngoing adjustments,only Huawei recovers after Lunar New YearWe conducted our periodic survey of the Korean,Taiwanese,Shanghai,Beijing and Shenzhen tech markets in late Februaryearly March.The sales and order adjustments in Greater China noted in our previous survey show no recovery even after the Lunar New Year,and end-demand remains weak.The stock market looks for recovery in AprJun and heading into 2H,but the supply chains outlook is less upbeat.Distributors have been cutting inventory and sharply reducing orders to improve cash flow since November 2018 and still seem cautious partly due to US-China trade friction and monetary tightening inside China.We saw no signs they are restocking inventories.SmartphonesWe expect global smartphone output,which fell 5%YoY to 1,464mn units in 2017 and 5%to 1,396mn in 2018,to decline another 5%to 1,332mn in 2019,as output reductions centering on the iPhone outweigh growth in Huaweis output from 205mn in 2018 to 260mn.Global quarterly output in 2018 was 326mn units in JanMar(20%QoQ,3%YoY),336mn in AprJun(+3%,2%),365mn in JulSep(+9%,4%),and 363mn in OctDec(1%,11%).We forecast JanMar 2019 output of 300mn units(18%QoQ,9%YoY),and 333mn in AprJun(+11%,1%).We lower our JanMar forecast from 310mn units as we expect downside centering on the iPhone to outweigh upside at Huawei.Huaweis output looks on track to rise from 5556mn units in OctDec 2018 to 6065mn in JanMar,given brisk January sales volume of 23.5mn units.It is guiding for 260270mn units over the full-year,up from 205mn in 2018,and has expedited parts procurement since end-January,just before the Lunar New Year,in view of strong smartphone sales and base-station demand,as well as supply risks posed by the US-China trade dispute and possible US government sanctions.This suggests component demand is likely to peak in JanMar.JanMar output adjustments at other Chinese smartphone makers looks in line with our expectations.AprJun,model launches should lift output but we are not sure if this will last.We put iPhone output at 37mn units for JanMar(22%YoY,45%QoQ),and 45mn for AprJun(+21%,+13%).However,device makers project just under 40mn for AprJun and 180190mn(15%YoY)for 2019.Given excess inventory of 2018 models,many expect output of 2019 models to dip below 60mn,with rising risk of a weaker than usual 2H recovery.Samsung projects annual output of 280290mn units but Galaxy S10 output looks on track to hit 40mn,topping the initial target(35mn),and A-series output is up sharply since March.We understand there is strong demand for the Galaxy S10 as an upgrade from the S7.In the 5G space,we expect base-station demand for active antenna units(AAUs)in radio remote heads(RRH)to be at least 10 x the year-earlier level and center on Huawei.However,5G smartphone shipments are likely to be only around 10mn in 2019 and 5070mn in 2020.In devices,we expect further upgrades to camera specs.In 2019,we forecast stronger demand for triple cameras,48MP sensors,5x zooms using folded-optics technology,and 13 March 2019Technology sector6SAM or ball-guide optical image stabilization(OIS)devices.However,we note CIS makers plan to rollout 65MP sensors in 2H 2019 and 108MP sensors in 2020.TabletsThere are no fresh developments to report in the field of tablets.We expect iPad production volume to remain strong through JanMar and AprJun 2019,owing to new model manufacture.PCsIntel MPU supply problems should be resolved from the AprJun quarter.Nintendo SwitchWe understand that Switch production,which was 21mn units in FY3/19,is set to reach 20mn units in FY3/19 and around 18mn in FY3/20,including output of the new 5-inch model.There is hardware inventory for the existing Switch,but it appears this includes a build-up of inventory for the launch of the new Switch product for launch in FY3/20.Devices in short supplyThe only devices currently in short supply are high-voltage MOSFETs,Intel CPUs,high-end MLCCs,FC-BGA PCBs and CISs.There is strong demand for FC-BGA PCBs for use in communications devices(routers,switches,FPGAs).MLCCsSupplydemand remains tight for high-end MLCCs for use in base stations and automotive applications.The situation for low-end MLCC inventory is mixed,depending on customer type.Among PC makers,notebook PC ODM MLCC inventory has reduced to 24 weeks and should normalize from 2Q.However,inventory at MB makers appears to remain high.Meanwhile,smartphone makers appear largely to have depleted their inventory,and order placement,including MLCCs for base stations,by Huawei,among others,is showing sharp growth.For sales agents,the inventory situation differs from customer to customer:while inventory levels have normalized for some customers,they appear to remain too high for many others.The stock market apparently expects demand from sales agents to recover from the latter half of AprJun,but we see no basis f