教育行业：民办教育舒缓财政支出困境不二之选-20190114-申万宏源（香港）-16页.pdf

本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。1本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。1SWS Research Co.Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.99 East Nanjing Road,Shanghai|+86 21 2329 7818 Industry Research Bringing China to the World 2019 年 1 月 14 日 超配 维持维持 民办教育，舒缓财政支出困境不二之选民办教育，舒缓财政支出困境不二之选 教育行业Analyst Daniel Huang A0230513030001 BDQ227 我们预计目前国内的税收改革将不断拖累中央及地方政府未来的税收增速，而教育经费仍将稳步增长，最终导致教育支出赤字的逐渐扩大。政府将依靠民间资本的投入来满足教育板块的增量需求，从而推出更多的支持性政策。我们认为，在未来中央政府规范教学内容的同时，地方政府将在学校运作层面进行监管，未来民办学校的管理将具备更多的地方自主权。综合考虑，我们维持对教育行业的超配评级。税收增速放缓。税收增速放缓。我们认为目前国内一系列的税收改革措施将降低中央和地方政府未来的税收增速。为了减轻企业压力，刺激经济增长的目的，目前的政策基调指向了更大规模的减税降费。我们预计增值税收入占 GDP 比重将从 2017 年的 6.82%下降到 2022 年的 5.82%，同期的企业所得税收入占 GDP 比重将从 3.88%下降到 3.38%。我国整体税收占 GDP 比重最终将下降至发展中国家平均水平。受此影响，我们认为政府税收收入增速将从 2017 年的 10.7%下降到 2022年的 6.4%。教育赤字扩大。教育赤字扩大。随着国内各阶段教育毛入学率的持续上升，我们认为 K12 以及高等教育入学总人数将从 2017 年的 2.85 亿人上升到 2022 年的 2.97 亿人。与此同时，在国家政策的支持下，公立学校生均教育支出将持续增长。我们预计教育总支出将从2017年的3.535万亿上升至2022年的 5.617 万亿。考虑到教育预算将以相对较慢的速度增长，教育赤字将从 2017 年的 5200 亿元增加到 2022 年的 1.015 万亿元。弥补经费差额。弥补经费差额。我们认为民办教育的存在弥补了公共教育支出和预算之间的差额（学费收入来源于学生家长而非政府补贴）。根据我们的测算，民办学校在 2017 年 5,144 万在校生因为不需要政府补贴学费，共计为政府节省了 5,560 亿元人民币的教育经费预算。随着民办教育渗透率的不断提高，我们预计其填补的教育经费预算将在 2020 年达到 7,370 亿元人民币，约占当年总体教育支出的 15.67%。地方政策支撑。地方政策支撑。由于税收增速下滑带来的预算紧张，中央政府将难以通过转移支付来为地方政府提供足够的财政支持，地方政府将更倾向依靠民间资本来弥补教育支出的赤字。因此，相比于中央政府，地方政府将更加支持民办教育在当地的发展。我们认为在未来中央政府规范教学内容的同时，地方政府将在学校运营层面进行监管，为未来民办学校的管理提供了更多的地方自主权。综合考虑，我们维持对教育行业的超配评级。推荐标的推荐标的。我们持续推荐枫叶教育（01317.HK，买入评级，目标价 7.76 港币），其全国范围内的品牌声誉以及独特的商业模式（面向中产阶级的 BC 课程）都给公司带来了竞争力。同时我们也推荐宇华教育（06169.HK，买入评级，目标价 7.5 港币），因其在并购方面展现出的强大执行力。Code Company Rating Target price(HK$)+/-(%)19E PE(x)20E PE(x)19E PB(x)20E PB(x)01317:HK China Maple Leaf Edu BUY 7.76+136 11.9 8.5 2.1 1.9 06169:HK Yuhua Edu BUY 7.50+161 11.3 9.6 2.4 1.9 EDU:US New Oriental Edu Hold 54.30-10.5 28.2 22.7 3.5 2.8 The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page.本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。2 22019年1月14日 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1 We believe the current tax reform will slow fiscal revenue growth for both the central government and local governments in the coming years.Meanwhile,we expect public spending on education to continue to increase steadily,resulting in growing deficits in the education sector.We think the government will increasingly rely on private-sector investment to meet the incremental demand for public education,and thus roll out more supportive policies.We expect the central government to focus on teaching content regulation,while local governments supervise schools operations.As such,we believe private school operators will enjoy further autonomy in the future.We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector.Slowing fiscal revenue growth.We believe the current tax reform will slow fiscal revenue growth for both the central government and local governments in the coming years.With a policy tone skewed toward reducing companies tax burden to stimulate the economy,we expect value-added tax(VAT)revenue as a percentage of GDP to drop from 6.82%in 17A to 5.82%in 22E and Chinas corporate tax rate to be reduced from 3.88%to 3.38%over the same period.As a result,we expect Chinas tax burden ratio to decrease to the level of other emerging countries.We forecast fiscal revenue growth to decelerate from 10.7%YoY in 17A to 6.4%in 22E.Growing deficits.We expect K-12 and higher education student enrolments to continue to grow,from 285m in 17A to 297m in 22E.As the supportive policy stand remains unchanged,we believe per-student expenditure for public education will continue to increase,leading total expenditure to expand from Rmb3.5tn in 17A to Rmb5.6tn in 22E.With fiscal revenue growing at a slower rate,we expect deficits to increase from Rmb520bn in 17A to Rmb1.0tn in 22E.Bridging the gap.We believe private schools bridge the gap between public expenditure and the education budget as tuition fees are collected from students parents rather than the government.With 51.4m private school enrolments which required no tuition subsidies,we estimated the total education budget savings at Rmb556bn in 17E.As private school penetration continues to increase,we expect the total budget savings to reach Rmb737bn in 20E,accounting for 15.7%of the total education expenditure for the year.Supportive policies from local governments.We believe the central government,which suffers from budget constraints due to slowing fiscal revenue growth,will not be able to provide substantial financial support to local governments.As a result,we expect local governments to increasingly rely on,and be more supportive towards,private education.We expect the central government to focus on teaching content regulation,while local governments supervise schools operations.As such,we believe private school operators will enjoy further autonomy in the future.We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector.Our top picks.We recommend China Maple Leaf Educational Systems(01317:HK BUY;target price:HK$7.76)for its well-established brand across China as well as unique business model,targeting the growing middle class with a competitive British Colombia curriculum.We also like China Yuhua Education(06169:HK BUY;target price:HK$7.50)for its strong merger and acquisition execution capability.本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。3 32019年1月14日 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2 Slowing fiscal revenue growth We believe the current tax reform will slow fiscal revenue growth in the coming years.Government spending is classified according the its purpose,with four main budget categories,namely the“general public”budget,the“government fund”budget,the“state-owned capital operation”budget,and the“social insurance”budget.Broadly speaking,the general public budget is the largest and most important budget as it is usually used for key missions,such as promoting the countrys economic and social development,and protecting national security.According to the Ministry of Finance,the general public budget is financed through both tax income and non-tax income.In 2017,total revenue reached Rmb17.3tn(+11.4%YoY),accounting for 20.9%of Chinas GDP.Tax income totalled Rmb14.4tn in 2017(+10.7%YoY).With the implementation of tax reduction policies,tax income has grown at a slower rate.Over the last ten years(2007-17),the proportion of tax income in total government revenue dropped from 88.9%to 83.6%.Fig 1:Government revenue Source:Wind,SWS Research VAT and corporate income tax contributed the most to the governments revenue,making companies the largest taxpayers.We see tax reduction as an effective way to stimulate the economy.Chinas current tax system contains five major categories and 18 different kinds of taxes.Turnover taxes and income taxes are considered two of the largest categories.In 2017,revenue from turnover taxes accounted for 49.7%of total tax income,while income taxes accounted for 30.5%.More specifically,revenue from VAT and corporate income tax have been the main source of government revenue,together accounting for over 60%of total tax income.Fig 2:Chinas current taxation system Turnover Taxes Income Taxes Property Taxes Resource Taxes“Behaviour Taxes”Non-Tax Income Excise Tax Corporate Income Tax Real Estates Tax Resources Tax Urban Maintenance and Construction Tax Special Income VAT Individual Income Tax Vehicle and Vessel Tax Urban and Township Land Use Tax Stamp Duty Administrative Fee Customs Duty Vessel Tonnage Tax Environmental Protection Tax Land Appreciation Tax Confiscated Income Arable Land Use Tax Deed Tax Other Income Tobacco Tax Vehicle Purchase Tax Source:State Administration of Taxation,SWS Research 5,132 6,133 6,852 8,310 10,387 11,725 12,921 14,037 15,227 15,960 17,259 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Tax incomeNon-tax incomeYoYAs%of GDPRMB Billion本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。4 42019年1月14日 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3 Fig 3:Tax income breakdown in 2017 Fig 4:Government revenue breakdown in 2017 Source:Wind,SWS Research Source:Wind,SWS Research Since 1994,China has implemented a tax-sharing system with tax revenue divided into central tax,local tax,and shared tax.Taxes necessary for national sovereignty and macroeconomic control are classified as central taxes(such as excise tax and customs duties).Taxes directly related to the countrys economic development are classified into shared taxes(such as VAT,income tax,resource tax,and stamp duty).Taxes more easily collected by local governments are classified as local taxes(such as property tax and tobacco tax).The“tax-sharing”system has helped the central government increase control over budgeting.The central governments total tax revenue accounted for c.53%of the its total income in 2017(with 12.9%of central taxes and 40.6%of shared taxes).Meanwhile,using“transfer payments”as a method of income redistribution has given the central government more flexibility on its budget.According to the Ministry of Finance,the central governments annual transfer payments to local governments account for 30%of total fiscal revenue.After transfer payments,local governments usually control 80-85%of the total tax income.Fig 5:Tax breakdown Fig 6:Local government income and transfer payments Source:Wind,SWS Research Source:Wind,SWS Research Over the last few years,the Chinese government has increased its fiscal deficit in order to meet the growing demand for public welfare and stimulate economic growth.The governments spending-to-income ratio rose from 97%in 2007 to 118%in 2017,implying much higher spending compared to its budget.By breaking down total expenditure,we note most of the budget goes to sectors such as education,social security,community,agriculture,public services,and health care,among which education accounts for the largest part(15%in 2017).Turnover Taxes,49.67%Income Taxes,30.54%Property Taxes,2.37%Resources Taxes,3.80%Behavior Taxes,13.63%VAT,39.05%Corporate Income Tax,22.25%Individual Income Tax,8.29%Excise Tax,7.08%Other,23.33%Central Tax,12.92%Local Tax,12.00%Central,40.57%Local,34.51%Shared Tax,75.08%05,00010,00015,00020,0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Local government incomeTransfer PaymentCentral government income after transfer payment本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。5 52019年1月14日 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4 Fig 7:Government income vs spending Fig 8:Public expenditure breakdown in 2017 Source:Wind,SWS Research Source:Wind,SWS Research Past tax reforms show the governments determination to ease companies tax burden.Over the last few years,several tax reforms have been implemented,such as the current VAT reform.Since 2012,government officials have carried out four adjustments on VAT,focusing on lower rates and a simpler structure.VAT(including sales tax)as a percentage of total GDP declined from 7.8%in 2012 to 6.8%in 2017.Fig 9:VAT reforms Time Content Before 2012/1/1 Two different tax rates:17%(standard rate)and 13%(lower rate)2012/1/1 Four different tax rates:maintaining existing rates and adding 11%(transportation)and 6%(service)2017/7/1 Three different tax rates:lower the 13%rate to 11%2018/5/1 Two different tax rates:lower the previous rates to 16%,10%,and 6%,respectively Source:SWS Research Fig 10:VAT as a percentage of GDP Source:Wind,SWS Research We believe the current tax reform will slow fiscal revenue growth for both the central government and local governments in the coming years.With a policy tone skewed toward reducing companies tax burden to stimulate the economy,we expect value-added tax(VAT)revenue as a percentage of GDP to drop from 6.82%in 17A to 5.82%in 22E and Chinas corporate tax rate to be reduced from 3.88%to 3.38%over the same period.As a result,we expect Chinas tax burden ratio to decrease to the level of other emerging countries.We forecast fiscal revenue growth to decelerate from 10.7%YoY in 17A to 6.4%in 22E.Non-tax income also plays a crucial role in companies costs.The government has shown a positive attitude towards fee reduction and,as such,we believe non-tax income will follow a similar trend in the future.Therefore,we believe the overall tax and fee rates will decrease to the level of other emerging countries.80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%05000100001500020000250002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Government incomeGovernment spendingSpending/Income ratioRMB billion14%14%14%14%15%17%16%15%15%15%15%0%20%40%60%80%100%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017EducationSocial securityCommunity expenseAgriculturePublic serviceHealthcareOther4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%010002000300040005000600070008000VATSales TaxAs%of GDP本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司()使用。6 62019年1月14日 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 5 Fig 11:Government revenue in China vs other countries Source:IMF,SWS Research Chinas government revenue has been adjuted for comparison purposes Growing education demand Demand for education expenditure is primarily driven by two factors:the total number of students and education expenditure per student.We expect K-12 and higher education student enrolments to continue to grow,from 285m in 17A to 297m in 22E.According to the Ministry of Education(MoE),the total number of students reached 284.9m in 2017,among which kindergarten students,high school students,and higher education students accounted for 16%,14%,and 19%of the total,respectively.With gross enrolment rates of 79.6%,88.3%,and 45.7%,respectively,we still see growth potential for kindergartens,high schools,and universities.According to our calculation,the total number of students will reach 297.4m in 22E,representing a Cagr of 0.86%.Fig 12:Total number of students Source:MoE,SWS Research As the supportive policy stand remains unchanged,we believe per-student expenditure for public education will continue to increase.On 27 August 2018,the general office of the State Council issued“Opinions on Further Adjusting and Optimising the Use of Education Funds”.The document clearly states that“the per-student public expenditure on education(should)increase every year”.With such a positive policy tone,we believe education expenditure per student will steadily rise in the near future,with average student expenditure to climb from Rmb12,408 in 17 to Rmb18,885 in 22E.56.5%52.2%52.2%44.1%40.3%38.9%38.7%37.5%37.0%35.7%34.1%32.5%30.1%27.6%26.6%24.8%21.3%21.1%20.9%19.6%14.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Government revenue as%of GDP in 2017276.44 279.52 284.91 285.12 288.12 292.97 297.37 297.42 0501001502002503002015201620172018E2019E2