汇丰银行-亚洲地区-宏观策略-2019年展望：逆境中的坚持-2019.1.10-37页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Thesectoroutperformedthebroadermarketin2018,andinvestorsshouldselectivelyaddpositionsinIndustrialsin2019Asia’scapitalexpenditurecycleremainsmixedin2019,withgovernmentspendingbetterthanintheprivatesectorWeoutline13Buyideasacrosstheregionaswellasthreestockstoavoidin2019HSBC’sAsiaIndustrialsteamhas13analystscovering157stocks,providingvaluechainanalysisandread-acrosswithintheregionaswellasglobally.Asia’sindustrialssectorsawbetterperformancein2018followingfiveyearsofunderperformance.Thereislightattheendofalongtunnel;weprovideour2019outlookinthefaceofadversity.Governmentinvestmentakeydemanddriverin2019:Afteraneventful2018andthegrowinglikelihoodofaglobaleconomicgrowthslowdown,theoutlookfor2019governmentinvestmentplansandcorporatecapitalexpenditureremainsquitemixed.Wethinkgovernmentspendingwillbeakeydemanddriverandremaincautiousontheprivatesector,atleastfor1H19.InJuly2018,theChinesegovernmentinitiatedapolicyboostinginfrastructureinvestmenttostabilisedomesticdemand,andtheimpactofthisshouldcontinuein2019.Selectedleadingindicatorshaveshownearlysignsofaturnaroundin4Q18,suchasintheChineseconstructionsector.WethinkthattheAsianindustrialssectorwillcontinuetooutperformthebroadermarketin2019,andwerecommendinvestorsaddpositionsinthesectoronaselectivebasis.Prefergloballeadersandcompaniesexposedtogovernmentinvestment:Intermsofstockselectionin2019fortheAsianindustrialssector,wehavetwobroadcategoriesofpreference.Firstarecompaniesthatstandtobenefitfromgovernmentinvestment,includingCRCC(1186HK;CP:HKD10.82Buy;TP:HKD14.90),CSCEC(601668CH;CP:RMB5.73;Buy;TP:RMB7.90),AnhuiConch(914HK;CP:H...