汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-关注研究问题：需求驱动的石油市场但供应问题正在回归-2019.6.24-23页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comDemandconcernshavebeendominatingoilmarketsentimentuntilrecently…butthebalanceissettotightenagainstabackdropofrisinggeopoliticaluncertaintyWemarktomarketourFY19eBrentpricetoUSD66.5/bvsUSD67.0previously.2020e/21eunchangedatUSD70/bFormostofthepastfiveyearsoilmarketdynamicshavebeenmostlysupply-drivenbutinrecentweeksdemandconcernshavebeenmoredominant,drivenbyarunofunusuallylargebuildsinUSinventoriesandconcernsoverbroaderdemandgrowth.Supplyissueshaven’tgoneawayandoutsidetheUS,themarketremainstight–asshowninthestrongbackwardationinthefrontendoftheBrentfuturescurve.Wewouldexpecttoseemoresignsofthistightnessemerginginthenextfewmonths:OECDdemandwasweakin1Qbutwearenowseeingasharpseasonalincrease,with2Hglobaldemandlikelytobeagood1.5mbdabove1HOPECcuts–voluntaryandinvoluntary-havetaken>2mofsupplyoffthemarketsinceNovember.WeexpectarolloverofthecurrentOPEC+agreementinearlyJuly.Iranianexportshavefallensharply,andsupplylookssettofollowasitsstoragecapacitybecomesfull.WhileweexpectOPECmembersSaudiArabiaandtheUAEtocompensatewithadditionalvolumes,wedetectnosignsthatthiswillbecontemplateduntiltherearemuchclearersignsofthemarkettighteningEvenwithstronggrowthinnon-OPECsupplythisyear–ledby1.6mbdofforecastgrowthintheUS–weexpecttoseesignificantdeclinesinglobalinventoriesinthecomingmonths,lendingfurthersupporttopricesTherecentescalationinpoliticaltensionintheMiddleEastaddssubstantiallytopotentialsupply-siderisks.Wehavebeensurprisedbytherelativelackofcrudepriceresponsetosomeoftheseeventsuntiljustrecently,whichprobablyreflectstheprevailingsentimentofamarketinoversupply.ThefactthatafifthofglobalcrudesupplytransitstheStraitsofHormuzdaily,andvirtuallyallofglobalsparecapacityliesintheMiddleEast,makesanypre-judgementoftheimplicationsofanyfurtherescalat...