汇丰银行-全球-能源设备与服务行业-全球离岸OFS：没有几个地方可以躲避毫无生气的2020年-2019.11.27-22页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comFollowingQ3resultsseason,weseelittlereasontochangeourcautiousviewontheoffshoreoil&gasspacein2020Backlogsathighestlevelsseensincemid-2014butoffshoremargincautionshouldtaperearningsgrowthexpectationsBuySaipem(TPuptoEUR5.20)andTechnipFMC(TPcuttoEUR21.8),HoldSubsea7(TPuptoNOK95)M&Amaybebackonthecardsasweheadinto2020:Despiteadeepmulti-yeardownturn,offshoreOFShasnotseentheM&A‘roll-up’thatwasevidentinthelate1990sandearly2000s.RecentnewsflowconcerningSubsea7andSaipem(e.g.Bloomberg,15November)havere-ignitedmarketinterestinthepotentialtie-upsasawaytorationalisechronicovercapacityinequipmentandSURFvessels.Subsea7providesfirstglimpseof2020expectations:TheSURFfocussedplayerispointingto2019asthelowpointinthiscycle’scorporateprofitability.WhileitexpectsbothrevenueandEBITDAtobeupYoYin2020,ithascautionedonthepaceofmarginrecoveryandalsodowngraded2019revenueexpectations.Subseamarginrecoverynarrativehittingabumpintheroad:OverQ3resultstherehavebeenseveralcautionarycommentsfromcompaniesregardingmarginprogressionoverthecoming12-24months,includinglower-marginbacklogsandPLSVre-contractingrisk.ThisisatopicwediscussedrecentlyinourreportSubseaF9:Recalculatingtherecovery,15October2019.What’sleftfortherestof2019?Afewmoreprojectsanctionsandpotentiallyadealprospectus:Someoffshoreprojectsareina‘holdingpattern’ofsortsasOFScompaniesexpectcontractstobeawardedsubjecttoformalsanction.WeawaitFIDsforSNE,MeroII,RovumaLNGandNigeriaLNGamongothersinQ42019/H12020.Theprocesstokick-startTechnipFMC’sproposedsplitintotwoseparateentitiesmayalsofallin2019,withadealprospectuspotentiallybeingprovidedbyyearend.Investmentviews:SaipemcontinuestobeourpreferredoffshoreOFSstocklargelyduetoitsOnshoreE&Cexposure(orderintakeandmarginrecovery).DespiteacuttoourTP,weremainBuyersofTechnip...