汇丰银行-全球-房地产行业-全球房地产市场：趋势向下但情况还好-2019.6.3-21页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comGlobalhousepricegrowthisslowing……asmanyofthecountry-specificboomslooktohavecooled…butlabourmarketsandlowratesshouldsupportpricesfornowHousepricesarewatchedbyeconomistsandinvestorsforsignsofstrengthandweaknessinaneconomy.Oftentheyaredrivenbycommonfactorssuchasinterestratesandemploymentlevels.Butdifferentdynamicscanalsoplayoutwithincountries,includingdifferentregulatoryenvironments,differentsupply-demandimbalances,anddifferentattitudestowardshomeownership.Inthisreportwetakestockofthecurrentstateofglobalhousingmarketsintermsofdemand,whereweareintermsofsupply,andthemonetarypolicyoutlook.ThebiggestconcernsofourcountryeconomistsareinCanada,wheremonetarytighteningcouldweighbothonthehousingmarketandthebroadereconomy.NewZealand’shousingmarketremainsvulnerabletoshocks,butundersupplyshouldsupportpricesfornow.Twocountrieshaveseenasharpcorrectioninhouseprices,moreinlinewithfundamentals,inthepastyear:SwedenandAustralia.Sweden’shousepricesfellby10%inearly2018andhavenotrecovered,buttheyhavestabilisedsincespring2018.Asidefromacollapseinconstructionwehaven’tseentheweaknessspreadtotherestoftheeconomy.InAustralia,thecorrectionhas,atleastsofar,beenorderly–withthelowlevelofunemploymentmeaningthattherearefewsignsofdistressedsalesandloanarrearshaveremainedlow.Inthelargesteconomiesintheworldthereappearstobelittletoworryabout.TheUShousingdatawereclearlysofteraroundtheturnoftheyear,butalthoughvaluationsremainhigh,priceshaven’t“bubbled”up,asinothermarkets,andthedropinmortgageratesshouldprovideacushion.InChina,nationalhomesalesdatamayhaveslowedandhousepricegrowthisdowninthelargestcities,whilesmallertier-2andtier-3citiesareseeingsteadierpricegrowth,atleastinpartduetotheshantytowncompensationproject,whichisnowbeingscaledback.Housingconstructionhaspick...