汇丰银行-全球-房地产行业-全球房地产市场：趋势向下但情况还好-2019.6.3-21页 (2).pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ Global house price growth is slowing as many of the country-specific booms look to have cooled but labour markets and low rates should support prices for now House prices are watched by economists and investors for signs of strength and weakness in an economy.Often they are driven by common factors such as interest rates and employment levels.But different dynamics can also play out within countries,including different regulatory environments,different supply-demand imbalances,and different attitudes towards home ownership.In this report we take stock of the current state of global housing markets in terms of demand,where we are in terms of supply,and the monetary policy outlook.The biggest concerns of our country economists are in Canada,where monetary tightening could weigh both on the housing market and the broader economy.New Zealands housing market remains vulnerable to shocks,but undersupply should support prices for now.Two countries have seen a sharp correction in house prices,more in line with fundamentals,in the past year:Sweden and Australia.Swedens house prices fell by 10%in early 2018 and have not recovered,but they have stabilised since spring 2018.Aside from a collapse in construction we havent seen the weakness spread to the rest of the economy.In Australia,the correction has,at least so far,been orderly with the low level of unemployment meaning that there are few signs of distressed sales and loan arrears have remained low.In the largest economies in the world there appears to be little to worry about.The US housing data were clearly softer around the turn of the year,but although valuations remain high,prices havent“bubbled”up,as in other markets,and the drop in mortgage rates should provide a cushion.In China,national home sales data may have slowed and house price growth is down in the largest cities,while smaller tier-2 and tier-3 cities are seeing steadier price growth,at least in part due to the shantytown compensation project,which is now being scaled back.Housing construction has picked up,which will likely weigh on prices going forward,but this may slow this year and some local governments have pared back some of the policy tightening delivered in 2018,helping to minimise the pace of any slowdown.But overall,at least for now,global housing markets dont appear to pose any immediate threat to household consumption.Tight labour markets,positive real wage growth,and low interest rates should keep house price growth steady in most countries.Of course,if these supports change because the unemployment rate rises as the economic outlook sours further or conversely central banks start tightening more,we highlight that housing markets may start to come under more pressure.3 June 2019 James Pomeroy Economist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6714 Paul Bloxham Chief Economist,Australia,NZ&Global Commodities HSBC Bank Australia Limited .au+61 2 9255 2635 David Watt Chief Economist,Canada HSBC Securities(Canada)Inc.david.g.watthsbc.ca+1 416 868 8130 Global housing markets Economics Global Down,but not out 2 Economics Global 3 June 2019 1.Snapshot:Key house price data and drivers Source:HSBC,Refintiv Datastream,BIS.Note:*Construction is the GDP component where available,otherwise is housing starts.Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Chile China Colombia Eurozone France Germany Hong Kong India Indonesia Italy Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Norway Philippines Poland Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK USHouse PricesBIS House price(Nominal)-5.1 1.92.07.27.24.34.23.24.65.85.73.0-0.6 2.51.67.13.12.3 15.5 7.64.9-7.94.13.26.70.6-0.9-4.54.52.54.5(Q4 2018)BIS House price(Real)-6.8-2.1-0.1 4.35.01.12.21.32.53.11.8-0.2-2.0 1.61.32.21.2-1.0 9.06.11.0-7.3-0.8 1.44.9-1.5-1.8-3.6-14.6 0.32.3(Q4 2018)National House price growth-5.5 0.00.15.04.39.24.23.27.82.45.61.8-0.6 2.21.6 10.0 1.22.2-7.63.1-5.83.1-1.94.5-0.3-0.1 2.16.33.51.43.7(%Yr)(Dec-18)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Apr-19)(Jan-17)(Dec-18)(Dec-18)(Apr-19)(Dec-18)(Sep-18)(Jun-19)(Dec-18)(Feb-19)(Dec-16)(Sep-18)(Apr-19)(Apr-19)(Dec-18)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(May-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Apr-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)(Mar-19)Household debt(%GDP,Q3 2018)712127100-52265860537111174158671693101-3517125533976089129-68168776ConstructionConstruction growth*(%Yr)-13.8-3.2 0.3-7.5 2.76.21.72.61.14.7-3.5 9.65.55.5-2.8 0.3-2.7 3.12.65.02.2-5.7-3.4-4.8 44.6-7.1 3.1-11.30.82.33.1-16.0 1.6-8.9(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)Policy RateNominal Policy rate(%)63.21.56.51.83.04.44.30.00.00.02.86.06.00.0-0.1 3.08.31.51.04.51.57.83.0-6.81.80.0-0.3-0.8 1.41.824.00.82.4Real policy rate(%)5.20.21.6-0.3 1.03.71.0-1.7-1.3-2.0-0.2 3.13.2-1.1-1.0 2.83.80.3-1.9 1.7-0.7 2.65.1-2.41.2-1.5-2.4-1.5 0.70.54.5-1.40.4Economic BackdropGDP growth(%Yr)-6.52.30.41.61.96.42.31.21.20.70.66.85.0-0.1 0.84.50.12.51.45.75.72.9-1.10.11.82.42.01.41.72.8-3.51.83.2(Q4 18)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q2 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q3 18)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q2 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)Consumer Confidence-1.00.11.30.2-0.1 1.3-0.1-0.1 0.1-0.7-1.51.4-0.2-2.5 0.42.1-1.6 0.4-0.2 1.3-0.4-0.8 0.4-2.30.2-0.6 0.5-0.8-0.51.2(z-score)(May-19)(May-19)(Apr-19)(May-19)(Q1 19)(Apr-19)(Apr-19)(May-19)(May-19)(May-19)(Q2 19)(Apr-19)(May-19)(May-19)(Q1 19)(Apr-19)(Q1 19)(Q2 19)(Q1 19)(May-19)(Q2 19)(May-19)(May-19)(May-19)(Q2 19)(May-19)(Apr-19)(May-19)(May-19)(May-19)Employment growth(%Yr)2.22.31.33.10.8-1.4 0.51.30.71.4-0.1-2.50.61.12.22.41.61.2-0.9 3.0-0.3-1.31.60.73.21.41.30.70.9-0.71.21.8(Q2 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(2017)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(2018)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(2017)(2018)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)Real wage growth(%Yr)-0.51.10.81.1-3.1 0.3-0.3 1.61.5-2.5 7.80.7-0.6 7.3-3.7 0.5-0.4-3.8 5.72.92.12.32.02.10.50.20.70.61.3-5.31.31.6(Q4 17)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q3 17)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q4 18)(Q4 18)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q3 16)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)(Q1 19)3 Economics Global 3 June 2019 Contents Global House prices 3 How is demand evolving?5 The policy outlook 8 Key markets:whats happening?12 Global house prices are cooling After the run-up in prices over the past few years,global house price growth has cooled over the past 18 months or so.Nominal prices were up around 4%yoy to Q4 2018,with real prices 2ppts lower,but global house prices have risen for the past five years even if the pace slowed in 2018.2.Global house price growth has slowing,not collapsing Source:Refinitiv Datastream,Dallas Fed The globally comparable BIS data is slightly lagged,with the latest data point only available for Q4 2018,but if we make a global aggregate from the countries who supply timely monthly data we can see a very similar pattern with house prices growing at 4-5%per year in nominal terms right now.-8-6-4-2024681012-8-6-4-2024681012197519781981198419871990199319961999200220052008201120142017%Yr%YrWorld house pricesNominalRealDown,but not out Global housing markets have cooled,with fewer booms across the world In many places,house prices may be supported by loose policy and falling unemployment and so these data will be key to follow for signs of vulnerability Economics Global 3 June 2019 4 Crucially,though,there are many country differences.Home owners in Australia,Sweden,and Turkey are all seeing house prices fall,with the BIS comparable measure of real house prices falling over the past year(chart 5).This global aggregate is pulled in a number of directions by these country differences with the clear divergence between the US and China standing out.3.National data point to a steadying out of house prices 4.with a divergence between China and the US Source:HSBC estimates,Refinitiv Datastream.Note:National Source includes:US,China.Germany,UK,Japan,Spain,Turkey,Hong Kong,Korea,Sweden and Canada where we have timely monthly data.Source:HSBC,Refinitiv Datastream At the end of the spectrum,Philippines,Portugal,and the Czech Republic saw fast price increases through to Q4.Encouragingly,most countries in the world seem to be experiencing relatively healthy,slow,and positive house price growth,which shows signs of continued demand but not a clear bubble in property prices that could pose macro stability risks.Some other parts of the emerging world have very strong house price growth:Poland,Hungary,and Chile are also on the left of chart 5,but it is harder to monitor these housing markets in real time due to less readily-available housing data and timely indications of economic health than in many developed markets.5.Huge divergences between countries Source:BIS,Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC 024681012345620122013201420152016201720182019%Yr%YrWorld:Nominal House Price growthBIS(LHS)National Source(RHS)-8-40481216-8-404812162012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019%Yr%YrNominal House price growthChinaUS-15-10-50510-15-10-50510PhilippinesPortugalCzech RepublicSingaporeIrelandPolandHungaryChinaSpainChilePeruThailandHong KongDenmarkGermanyUSEuro AreaMexicoIndiaRomaniaJapanKoreaFranceMalaysiaNew ZealandColombiaRussiaUKCanadaIndonesiaSouth AfricaNorwaySwedenSwitzerlandItalyBrazilIsraelAustraliaTurkey%Yr%YrLatest real house price growth(Q4 2018)5 Economics Global 3 June 2019 How is housing demand evolving?So,while house price growth is typically used as a gauge of the health of an economy,we have to look under the hood.We have seen numerous examples of unsustainable house price increases in recent years,as we highlighted in Tackling housing booms,31 August 2017.Spotting where house price growth may be at risk is key for economists and investors.This is easier to do for developed markets where we have timely underlying economic data available.If house prices start falling,the impact on the economy will depend on the cause an oversupply of housing may lead to a sharp pullback in construction,but a relatively soft landing in house prices and the consumer sector.But a slowdown caused by falling demand due to slow growth,rising unemployment,and/or higher interest rates would be much more concerning as we could see more widespread weakness in the economy,particularly if it feeds into the banking sector,although many countries banking sectors have taken steps to be more resilient to such an event in recent years.Key drivers While each housing market will function differently,there are some indicators we can compare across countries to assess likely demand.If an economy has a healthy labour market where unemployment rates are low(and not rising),real wage growth is positive,debt levels are low,rates are expected to stay low(and not leading to higher debt service costs),and house price growth is not too strong,then it is hard to be too concerned about the housing market outlook.However,if we see house prices rise without these fundamentals in place,we would question whether the trend is sustainable.Equally,if we see house prices start to fall,then these indicators will be key to monitoring the extent of any contagion to the broader economy.6.Assessing the fundamentals for the housing market Source:HSBC,based on data from Refinitiv Datastream and BIS.Note:Markets where we have adequate,timely data,included.BIS do not have data on household debt service ratios for New Zealand and Switzerland.Grey denotes lowest risk,Red denotes highest risk.Data are all latest available data points.In some countries,house prices have fallen sharply Sweden and Australias housing markets have cooled over the past year,with a fall in prices after sharp run-ups over the preceding few years.But in both countries,the broader macro fundamentals are still in place.Australias unemployment rate may have edged up in the past two months,but it is still 0.3pts lower than it was a year ago.And within these employment statistics,it is the construction side that has weighed on the data with construction employment down 4%over the past year and non-construction up 3%.Clearly,if the aggregate unemployment rate were to keep rising,or we were to see other labour market indicators weaken considerably,then we may get more concerned.The RBA is likely to cut rates in the coming months,in response to the turn in the labour market,which may provide a counter balance to this weakness by lowering household debt service costs.See RBA observer:We now expect cuts,16 May 2019,for more details.Latest data Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea New Zealand Norway Spain Sweden Switzerland UK USReal policy rate(%)0.2-0.1-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.61.40.3-1.9-1.7-2.1-1.5-1.20.6Real GDP(%Yr)2.31.61.20.7-0.10.81.82.51.42.42.01.41.83.2Real wage growth(%Yr)1.0-0.10.01.00.4-1.62.30.50.10.80.0-0.20.41.4Employment growth(%Yr)2.31.90.71.10.61.10.71.51.43.21.41.31.21.212m change in unemp rate(ppts)-0.3-0.3-0.5-0.5-1.0-0.30.4-0.7-0.1-1.8-0.2-0.6-0.1-0.5Consumer confidence(z-score)-0.10.21.10.10.9-0.9-1.1-1.2-0.11.0-1.60.20.31.7Household debt(%GDP)120.5100.259.552.740.957.796.993.3100.559.688.5128.686.576.4Household debt serv.(%inc.)15.513.26.26.14.36.812.5-14.96.511.4-9.37.812m change in HH DSR0.10.30.0-0.1-0.10.10.5-0.1-0.10.0-0.2-0.1Real house prices(%Yr)-6.8-0.11.32.5-2.01.61.41.2-1.04.9-1.5-1.80.32.3 Economics Global 3 June 2019 6 In Sweden,the clearest deterioration has been in consumer confidence,while broader activity growth remains relatively robust.We have seen housing construction falling sharply,but non-construction employment growth remains steady and real wage growth remains positive due to low inflation.While the Riksbank is keeping rates in negative territory,there are no foreseeable risks to debt service costs,which have not budged over the past year.The Swedish housing correction has been orderly so far,but construction weakness is likely to weigh on headline GDP growth in 2019.In both countries,house prices appear to have reacted to an increase in supply,rather than weakening macro fundamentals and while there is little evidence(for now at least)of a spill-over into the broad macro data,these house price falls may not be a trigger for a sustained period of weakness in the economy.Of course,house prices could edge down further,posing a risk of a downward spiral,but the broader macro picture doesnt point to that at this point.or just a bit Other countries have seen house price growth cool,but more gradually.Norwa