汇丰银行-女人、亚洲人与年轻人：全球消费品行业前进之路-2019.4-114页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Asset/SubcategoryFuture ConsumerApril 2019Equities/Economics/GlobalAsset/SubcategoryFuture ConsumerApril 2019Equities/Economics/GlobalPlay video withJames Pomeroy and ErwanRambourgBy:Erwan Rambourg,James Pomeroy,and the Global Equity Research TeamApril 2019GlobalEquities/EconomicsFuture ConsumerWomen,Asian,Young the WAY to goIn April 2018,we published our first Future Consumer report looking at specific investment themesThis 2019 follow-up focuses on large demographic shifts that will influence consumer discretionary sectors in a significant WAY over the long termWe are convinced the future is female,Asian(notably Chinese),and young;we highlight 21 stocks(all Buy)that fit these themesSP OTLIGHT 1 Equities/Economics Global April 2019 The second edition of our Future Consumer series In April 2018,we published our first Future Consumer report looking at specific investment themes.This 2019 follow-up focuses on large demographic shifts that will influence consumer discretionary sectors in a significant way over the long term.The three biggest shifts we see are women,Asian consumers,and young consumers.We are convinced:The future is female:with greater financial autonomy and increasing professional activity,women are taking over as the most relevant consumers The future is Asian(notably Chinese):big travelers,big spenders,Chinese consumers are transforming business models sustainably The future is young:the modal age in the US is 26,31 in China,and 12 in India;this selfie generation will decide whats hot and whats not,have different values and be health conscious We highlight 21 ways investors can participate in these themes around the world All 21 stocks are rated Buy.We organize them according to theme.Want to know which jewelers we feel are best positioned to take advantage of the rising power of female consumers?Or which gaming and leisure companies we think are most likely to benefit from wealthier Asian consumers?Or which sporting goods and ride-hailing apps we think will benefit from tech-hungry younger consumers?Take a look inside.Feel free to reach out to any of the analysts mentioned in the report for more information.Why read this report?In April 2018,we published our first Future Consumer report looking at specific investment themes This 2019 follow-up focuses on large demographic shifts that will influence consumer discretionary sectors in a significant WAY over the long term We are convinced the future is female,Asian(notably Chinese),and young;we highlight 21 stocks that fit these themes all rated Buy Erwan Rambourg Global Co-Head of Consumer and Retail Research HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 8393 James Pomeroy Economist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6714 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA(THE PRC)(EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO)Equities/Economics Global April 2019 2 Why read this report?1 Three features of future consumers 3 Related research 5 Future consumer 6 The rise of the female consumer 6 Asia to dominate consumption growth 9 The young consumer matters and cares 12 The future is Female 17 AmorePacific(090430 KS)18 LOccitane(973 HK)22 LVMH(MC FP)26 Richemont(CFR SW)30 Tiffany(TIF US)34 Titan(TTAN IN)38 The future is Asian 43 Alibaba(BABA US)44 Carnival(CCL US/CCL LN)48 China International Travel(601888 CH)52 Galaxy Entertainment(27 HK)56 Home Product Center(HMPRO TB)60 Huazhu Group Limited (HTHT US)64 Matahari Department Store(LPPF IJ)68 Samsonite(1910 HK)72 Tencent Holdings(700 HK)78 The future is Young 83 Eclat(1476 TT)84 Inditex(ITX SM)88 Localiza(RENT3 BZ)92 Puma(PUM GR)96 Xiaomi(1810 HK)100 Yandex(YNDX US)104 Disclosure appendix 109 Disclaimer 112 Contents 3 Equities/Economics Global April 2019 Three features of future consumers Source:HSBC The future is femaleUSD72trnIn the US,women control a steadilyincreasing amount of personal wealth,which is expected to reach USD72trnin 2020Titan is the leading organized jeweler inIndia,and its target segments aremiddle class and upper-middle classwomen,predominantly in urban IndiaCartier mostpreferred brand forwatches andjewelry amongwomen in China80%of millennial women doconsiderable research beforebuying beauty productsGeneration Z(22)Millennials(22-38)Generation X(39-53)Baby Boomers(54-72)The future is youngYounger populations around the world will dominate the consumerpool over the coming decades.They are expected to play a muchmore active role in pushing personal care and healthTmall is an integral part of the urban lifestylefor young female customers in China.In 2019,it plans to open1,000new cosmeticstores23%18%28%33%Millennials are more likelyto be vegetarian(orvegan)than any othergeneration in history and are less likely todrink alcohol and smokecigarettesIn 2019 and 2020,China is set to addmore to global growththan the US,and Indiawill add more than theEurozoneYounger generations are more focused on fitness:proportion of age group that do not exerciseThe future is Asian(mainly Chinese)This regions rising wealth per capita and the growingpopulations across Asia mean that over the next decade,weexpect EM Asia to account for nearly 35%of global GDPGlobal GDPAsia 201926%Asia 203035%Equities/Economics Global April 2019 4 Summary of estimates The future is Female Summary of estimates all stocks are rated Buy Stock Ticker Currency Price Target Price Upside Market Cap(USDm)2019e PE 2020e PE 2019e EV/EBITDA 2020e EV/EBITDA Analyst AmorePacific 090430 KS KRW 190,000.00 240,000.00 26.3%9,752 32.9x 28.5x 13.3x 12.0 x Karen Choi*LOccitane 973 HK HKD 14.78 19.00 28.6%2,752 22.8x 18.4x 15.6x 11.0 x Erwan Rambourg LVMH MC FP EUR 322.90 375.00 16.1%183,494 22.8x 20.5x 13.1x 11.8x Antoine Belge*Richemont CFR SW CHF 71.24 90.00 26.3%41,131 23.1x 19.3x 11.3x 9.5x Erwan Rambourg Tiffany TIF US USD 104.42 118.00 13.0%12,682 22.1x 20.9x 12.3x 11.5x Erwan Rambourg Titan TTAN IN INR 1,116.50 1,180.00 5.7%14,319 63.5x 52.3x 43.9x 35.9x Amit Sachdeva*Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates.Priced as of 27 March 2019.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations The future is Asian Summary of estimates all stocks are rated Buy Stock Ticker Currency Price Target Price Upside Market Cap(USDm)2019e PE 2020e PE 2019e EV/EBITDA 2020e EV/EBITDA Analyst Alibaba BABA US USD 177.03 199.00 12.4%458,894 44.8x 38.5x 41.5x 29.7x Binnie Wong*Carnival Corp CCL US USD 50.66 68.00 34.2%37,351 11.3x 10.0 x 8.7x 8.1x Ali Naqvi*Carnival PLC CCL LN GBPp 4,151.00 5,200.00 25.3%40,456 11.0 x 9.7x 8.5x 7.9x Ali Naqvi*China Intl Travel 601888 CH RMB 65.47 75.40 15.2%19,003 33.0 x 28.4x 16.0 x 14.9x Lina Yan*Galaxy 27 HK HKD 52.50 67.00 27.6%28,965 20.0 x 17.4x 13.0 x 10.9x Charlene Liu*Home Product Center HMPRO TB THB 15.00 19.25 28.3%6,188 30.6x 27.0 x 24.0 x 21.5x Nigel Kiernan*Huazhu Group HTHT US USD 40.11 42.10 5.0%11,690 35.8x 29.7x 20.1x 16.5x Lina Yan*Matahari LPPF IJ IDR 3,910.00 8,600.00 119.9%799 5.9x 5.9x 3.6x 3.1x Nigel Kiernan*Samsonite 1910 HK HKD 24.40 32.00 31.1%4,449 13.8x 12.0 x 8.8x 7.5x Erwan Rambourg Tencent 700 HK HKD 354.60 412.00 16.2%430,176 30.7x 24.3x 22.8x 17.8x Binnie Wong*Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates.Priced as of 27 March 2019.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations The future is Young Summary of estimates all stocks are rated Buy Stock Ticker Currency Price Target Price Upside Market Cap(USDm)2019e PE 2020e PE 2019e EV/EBITDA 2020e EV/EBITDA Analyst Eclat 1476 TT TWD 413.00 488.00 18.2%3,668 22.7x 19.9x 22.8x 20.0 x Jeremy Chen*Inditex ITX SM EUR 25.90 32.00 23.6%90,830 23.4x 20.8x 13.6x 11.9x Paul Rossington*Localiza RENT3 BZ BRL 31.39 38.00 21.1%5,729 26.8x 18.9x 13.5x 11.4x Alexandre Falcao*Puma PUM GR EUR 512.00 625.00 22.1%8,689 30.0 x 23.8x 11.7x 9.5x Anne-Laure Bismuth*Xiaomi 1810 HK HKD 11.30 15.10 33.6%24,824 18.7x 13.1x 9.3x 5.9x Frank He*Yandex YNDX US USD 34.84 43.00 23.4%9,994 25.3x 18.9x 11.9x 8.5x Masha Kahn,CFA Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates.Priced as of 27 March 2019.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 5 Equities/Economics Global April 2019 Related research Recommended reading.Future Consumer Catch 22:Where share of wallet will go next,19 April 2018 Panda Luxury Staycation Why China should grow at twice the global luxury market pace,1 April 2019 China Deluxe Checking in on luxury consumption in China,19 February 2019 UK Anatomy of the Consumer 2019 Evolution of issues,16 January 2019 US Holiday Deluxe Anatomy of the US luxury consumer,3 December 2018 China Deluxe Anatomy of the future luxury consumer,7 March 2018 Russia:Anatomy of the consumer Feeling the pinch,27 November 2018 The World in 2030 Our long-term projections for 75 countries,25 September 2018 Who cares wins The future consumer and the rise of ESG themes,25 February 2019 Recommended viewing.Future Consumer Catch 22:Where share of wallet will go next James Pomeroy,Global Economist,and Erwan Rambourg,Global Co-Head of Consumer and Retail Research,look at three major shifts in the way the world consumes and assess the implications for equities.19-Apr-2018 Who cares wins The future consumer and the rise of ESG themes James Pomeroy,Global Economist,and Lucy Acton,ESG Analyst,look at how millennials are becoming more concerned about environmental and social issues and the implications for companies and policymakers.25-Feb-2019 Equities/Economics Global April 2019 6 As we outlined in our previous edition of Future Consumer(19 April 2018),the mix of the worlds consuming population is changing.The rapid shifts in the worlds population,incomes across the emerging world,and the tastes of consumers more broadly will be key to determining the future of the global economy.We highlight three new themes that are helping to shape consumption:1.The future is Female:greater financial autonomy and greater involvement in the labor force are making female consumers more important than ever.2.The future is Asian:the rise in incomes across Asia,coupled with rapid growth in urban populations,will pull more global spending to the East.3.The future is Young:young populations around the world are starting to dominate the consumer pool.As this trend continues,will the differing tastes and values of this young cohort matter more?The rise of the female consumer Women already influence the majority of spending decisions across all geographies.Many women not only purchase goods and services for themselves but also for their entire household,including their spouse,children and elderly dependents.Consequently,some estimate that women control 85%of consumer spending in the US1https:/ influence can only be expected to become stronger with the prospects of rising incomes as more women join the labor force and wage gaps fall further.In the US,women are controlling a steadily greater amount of personal wealth,which is expected to have reached USD72trn in 20202.However,importantly,a number of shifts are taking place that will mean that this female spending is spent much more on themselves,rather than on others.First,across the developed world,women are working more.This trend is particularly evident in countries facing demographic headwinds,such as Japan and Germany,where shrinking working age populations have been triggers for more women to enter the labor force.In Japan,in particular,encouraging female labor participation through a mixture of lower tax rates for married women,better family leave policies,and better childcare availability has been a key part of government policy in recent years._ 1 Women Control The Money In America,Business Insider,17 February 2012 2 Based on data from Boston Consulting Group,2018.Future consumer More of the worlds spending power is falling to female,Asian and todays young populations The tastes of these groups will be key for global spending over the next decade as spending shifts towards online,experiences and ESG themes James Pomeroy Economist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6714 7 Equities/Economics Global April 2019 Japanese women are being encouraged to enter the labor force and we have a clear divide between genders in Germany Source:ILO Source:ILO And even outside of these extreme demographic cases,we are seeing women enter the labor force more than men.In the UK,participation rates are moving in opposite directions.In the US,the decline in female participation rates has been far more muted than the male equivalent and has picked up in recent years.British females are joining the workforce at a faster rate than males and leaving it less quickly than males in the US Source:ILO Source:ILO This rise in female incomes matters because as women become a larger share of the labor force and the income pool,the income that is being spent by women is more likely to be their own,which will likely play a role in the changes of consumption habits.However,this will depend on female wages closing some of the gap to male wages.OECD data for 2017 show the still-wide gender pay gap in most countries.While there has been some closing of the gap in recent years,as Liz Martins explained in UK Gender Pay Gap,8 March 2018,there is a long way to go.606570758094959697981990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018%Japan:Participation rate(25-54)Male(LHS)Female(RHS)707274767880828489909192939495961990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018%Germany:Participation rate(25-54)Male(LHS)Female(RHS)7274767880828688909294961990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018%UK:Participation rate(25-54)Male(LHS)Female(RHS)72737475767778888990919293941990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018%US:Participation rate(25-54)Male(LHS)Female(RHS)Equities/Economics Global April 2019 8 There is still a wide gender wage gap which may close in coming years Source:OECD Source:BLS Another key trend here is the fact that fewer people are getting married and marriages are happening later in life.Based on data from the United Nations(UN),the share of women who are married has been falling(see charts below)and the median age of married women has been rising.Even in China,where marriage rates have been steadily rising,the UN estimates that this trend will reverse in the coming years.This lower number of marriages will mean that a greater share of the growing female income pool gets spent on themselves,rather than on others.On top of this,women are having children later in life,with data from The New York Times suggesting that the average age of a first-time mother in the US rose from 21 to 26 between 1972 and 2016 and this continues to move ever higher.In some developed markets and some US states the average age for first-time mothers is over 31.Fewer people are getting married across the world Sour