汇丰银行-中国-食品与饮料行业-中国食品与饮料行业2019年展望：借鉴历史谋求稳定-2019.2-57页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedViewHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBCChinaConference201915-17May,ShenzhenRegisternowEquityResearchReportAmacroslowdownanddemographicchangearethekeyconcerns;thefocusisonproductupgradesandcostcontrolLearningfromJapan,webelievethatF&Bleaderscanachievesteadylong-termgrowthdespitemacropressuresWelikecompanieswhichcandeliverstableearningsgrowth:Jonjee,ChongqingBrewery,MoutaiandWuliangye(allBuys)Stabilitythepriorityin2019.Wethinkconsumerdemandwillstabilisebutcouldbefacingsomeheadwinds,followingtheeconomiccycle,atrendthatisalreadybeingreflectedinsomesub-sectors.Continuedurbanisationshouldsupportgrowthinlower-tiermarkets,creatingopportunitiesforchannelpenetration.Industryleadersincondiments,beerandbaijiuhavegreaterresilience,helpedbytheirstrongbrands.Wethinkthemarketleaderscanachievedouble-digitrevenuegrowthin2019ebylaunchingnewproducts,penetratinglower-tiercities,andupgradingtheirproductmix.TheJapanexperience.LookingatwhathappenedinJapan,wefindthatleadingconsumerstaplecompaniescanoutperformthemarketindexeveninhardtimes.Inaddition,China’sdemographicstructurehasmanysimilaritiestoJapan’sattheendofthe20thcentury–alowbirthrate,anageingpopulation,andfeweryoungpeopleofworkingagetotakecareoftheelderly.TheNikkei225indexfellmorethan60%atonepointinthelast10yearsofthe20thcentury.However,companiesinthespirits,beer,instantfoodandmeatproductsectorsrecordedrelativelystablegrowth,andsectorleadersoutperformedthemarketindexdespitemacropressures.Productmixupgradesandcostcontrolarethekeystrategies–welikeJonjee,ChongqingBrewery,KweichowMoutaiandWuliangye.Inthisreport,weupdateourtargetprices,butdowngradeHaitiantoHoldonvaluationasthestockisnowtradingata40x2019ePE,2sdaboveitshistoricalmean.Majorcatalysts:AccelerationofSOEreform,stronger-than-expectedtaxcutpolicy,a...