汇丰银行-亚太地区-宏观策略-亚太利率：重启宽松-2019.7.18-35页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comReceiveCNY5yrNDIRS:Expect10-15bpOMOratecutsKRW1s10sflattener:Carry;twocutsalreadypricedinPaySGD-USD5yrIRSspread:NegativecorrelationtoNEERTheFedislikelytostartitseasingcycleon31July,andtheECBcouldtweakitsforwardguidanceon25July.NextinlineisAsia,wheresomecentralbanksmayfinallyspringintoaction.ThePBoChasbeenloweringrequiredreserveratiosoverthepastyear,butthemostdefinitiveeasingsignal–ratecuts–hasyettocome.WelikestayingreceiversofCNY5yrNDIRSandremaininglong30yrCGB,asthePBoCcouldloweritsreversereporatesoncetheFedmoves.BankIndonesiashouldalsoeasesoon,encouragedbyitsrecentcurrencystrength.Wegolong10yrIndoGB.Therallyhasbeensharpoverthelastmonth,butthereisprobablyroomforthelikesofIndonesiaandRussiabondstocatchupwithBrazil’seven-sharperrallyoflate.10yrIndiaand2yrPhilippinesbondsremainamongourfavourites,aseasingissettointensifyinbothcountries.AratecutislessforthcominginThailand,butthecentralbank’sreductionofbillsupplyshouldpushfront-endratesmuchlower,asitdidin2017.StayreceiversofTHB1yrIRS.Forsometime,ourportfoliohasbeenoverwhelminglyconstructed,withoutrightreceiveIRSandlongbondpositions.Aftertheyear-to-daterally,valuationsarestretchedforsomecountriesand,hence,weareaddingsomerelativevaluetrades.ForexampleinKorea,wefavourKRW1s10sNDIRSflattenerforthecarryreturnsandalsobecauseweareoftheviewthatinvestorshavesufficientlypricedintworatescutsbeforeendQ12020.InSingapore,adovishshiftinNEERstanceispossibleinOctober.WefavourpayingSGD-USD5yrIRSspreadgiventhenegativecorrelationtoSGDNEERduringthelasteasingepisodein2015-18.18July2019AndrédeSilva,CFAHeadofGlobalEMRatesResearchTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedandre.de.silva@hsbc.com.hk+85228222217PinRuTanAsia-PacificRatesStrategistTheHongkongandShanghaiBa...