汇丰银行-新兴市场-外汇策略-新兴市场外汇路线图：就像一头闯进瓷器店的公牛-2019.4.24-92页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ Chinas“green shoots”may not be as supportive for EM FX as some believe A strong USD,sluggish growth elsewhere and a higher energy price pose downside risks to most EM currencies We favour quality over quantity for EM FX We focus on“green shoots”and on higher oil prices in this edition of the Roadmap.On the former,some are trying to take comfort in Chinas better-than-expected data but it is still more likely that the anticipated recovery is a modest one,as the policy stimulus is more measured and targeted this time.This suggests that the positive impulse to EM growth and the respective currencies is unlikely to be as supportive as in the past.Meanwhile,a higher oil price raises the question whether some EM central banks can truly pivot like the Fed and other major central banks without triggering local currency weakness.FX volatility may be very low now,but this may not persist given downside risks are rising.Net oil importing current account deficit names that also have high correlation with Chinas equities historically ZAR,CLP,MXN,IDR could trade with higher volatility ahead.Meanwhile,our long-standing preference for quality over quantity for EM FX prevails.This should be the case when considering the broad USD outlook remains positive and sluggish EM growth and idiosyncratic risks persist.In Asia,we answer some key questions about the RMB and potential portfolio inflows with major index inclusions for Chinese assets under way.In Indonesia,with the election outcome out of the way,confidence in the IDR could improve in the near term.We expect USD-KRW to move higher Koreas current account surplus is shrinking rapidly,residents portfolio outflows are rising,and sensitivity to potential equity outflows remains high.We also provide a preview of the US Treasurys“currency manipulation”report and discuss Asian central banks FX policies in Q1.Elsewhere,the MAS kept all SGD NEER settings unchanged,as expected,due to weak core CPI and sub-potential growth.In CEEMEA,the lack of monetary policy normalization by the Hungarian central bank(NBH)is HUF negative.We expect EUR-HUF to move up to 340 by the end of 2019.In LatAm,we present 24 charts covering the outlook for the MXN and expect it to weaken in the longer-run.We have just returned from a trip to Brazil and one important takeaway relates to the local view that social security reform will be passed.This,however,creates potential for disappointment should the reform be watered down or delayed;weak growth is also a focus.Lastly,we discuss key takeaways from our IMF Spring Meetings with policymakers from Argentina,Brazil and Mexico.24 April 2019 Paul Mackel Head of Emerging Markets FX Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2996 6565 Ju Wang Senior FX Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 4340 Joey Chew Senior Asia FX Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2996 6568 Madan Reddy Asia FX Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 1672 Murat Toprak CEEMEA FX Strategist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 5415 Dominic Bunning Senior FX Strategist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 2113 Daragh Maher Head of FX Strategy,US HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 4114 Clyde Wardle Senior EM FX Strategist HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 3345 David Duong,CFA Senior FX Strategist,LatAm HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 3277 Mark McDonald Head of Data Science and Analytics HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 5966 Emerging Markets FX Roadmap CURRENCIES EMERGING MARKETS Like a bull in a China shop CURRENCIES EMERGING MARKETS 24 April 2019 2 Asia Asian currencies have generally been on an uptrend year-to-date,as US-China trade tensions eased and the US Treasury yields fell.But there were also brief periods of depreciation when global growth concerns rose to the fore,for example in early March,when the ECB turned more dovish than expected.This“to-and-fro”type of price action was also seen in the aftermath of the Feds policy meeting in March.The apparent end to the Feds hiking cycle is something like a double-edged sword for Asian currencies.On the one hand,it could allow more Asian central banks to ease monetary policy and support growth.The RBI already started easing and BI and the BSP could follow,although the oil price increase is a hindrance.HSBC Economics no longer expect policy tightening by the BoK and the MAS.But on the other hand,to the extent that the Feds dovishness portends a material slowdown in external demand for Asia later,we believe market volatility could return at some point.This could be catalysed perhaps by a return of US inflation and Fed hike expectations,if oil prices stay high and if the Phillips curve kicks in at the late stage of an economic cycle.Alternatively,market expectations about“green shoots”in growth could also get overdone,leading to disappointment later.This is why we still have a broadly higher USD-Asia trajectory into year-end 2019.The KRW,the MYR and the IDR have historically been more sensitive to deteriorating risk sentiment.We also expect the CFETS RMB index to stay supported in 2Q,amid portfolio inflows on the back of the index inclusion(bonds from April)and MSCI re-weighting(equities from May),and hopes for a US-Sino trade deal.Chinas monetary policy has fine-tuned to be less accommodative and the authorities could re-commit to containing leverage after seeing growth stabilize.While the RMBs yield support has increased,expectation for the currency to strengthen should not be taken too far.In this context,we prefer the RMB to the SGD and the THB for now and will look for opportunities to be long the IDR against the INR and the PHP.CEEMEA We remain bearish on most high-yielding currencies in the region.The strength of the ZAR lately does not appear to be based on any significant domestic improvement.The decision of Moodys to leave South Africas rating unchanged has helped,no doubt,as has volatility in other high yielding currencies and the resulting capital reallocation in to ZAR assets.But ahead of elections on 8 May,the fiscal loosening and the health of the state owned enterprises remain a concern,alongside sluggish growth.We see no reason to change our long-term bearish stance on the ZAR.The same can be said of the TRY where we believe long-term structural challenges remain in place most notably in the form of foreign currency debt.The widening Regional views Risk sentiment may be temporarily revived by central banks policy accommodation but market volatility could rise in 2H,potentially affecting the KRW,the MYR and the IDR more than the others Bearish on most high-yielding currencies 3 CURRENCIES EMERGING MARKETS 24 April 2019 fiscal deficit points to a loosening policy mix which may also make it hard for TRY to stabilise meaningfully,in our view.The RUB appears to be the exception in this gloomy outlook.There are arguably strong macro reasons for RUB strength given it has a backdrop of fiscal and current account surpluses,and rising oil prices provide another positive impulse.However,we are not convinced that these developments are enough to justify the scale of recent RUB appreciation.Moreover,the risk of further US sanctions has not disappeared.Therefore,we would argue that the RUB is not pricing in enough risk premium and would not chase the currency further.Our preference in the lower yielders goes to the PLN,as we believe strong cyclical drivers enhanced by the new fiscal plan will drive the currency higher.The HUF looks set to depreciate as the NBH failed to deliver a meaningful shift towards a hawkish policy.Risks around economic imbalances and inappropriately loose policy could return for the HUF.There appear to be few cyclical catalysts for the CZK and we are neutral for now.The resilience of the ILS has been founded on rising inflation and a more hawkish tone by the central bank.The stabilisation of Israels trade deficit has also helped.But BoI minutes revealed that MPC members have discussed the possibility of resuming foreign currency purchases to stem ILS appreciation.Overall,the return of FX intervention has become a real possibility.LatAm Appetite for LatAm currencies has been oscillating between support from higher commodity prices and relatively attractive yields,versus headwinds coming from sliding global growth,local fiscal concerns and political risks.In Brazil,the social security reform is under Congressional committee review,and already there have been some market reaction to delays despite being early in the process.Discussions over if and how the bill can be diluted should really take place under the special committee,but the government has faced challenges getting the proposal through the Constitution and Justice Committee,whose sole remit is to decide whether the bill is constitutional.Meanwhile President Bolsonaros popularity has fallen in the latest poll(Datafolha),though he appears now to be taking a more active role in seeking support for the reform in Congress,which we view as a positive development.We see several reasons why MXN should depreciate,including slowing domestic growth,increased policy uncertainty,lower FDI(i.e.less of a buffer for the current account),a potential monetary easing cycle,fiscal slippage risks,and structural issues surrounding Pemex that could weaken the sovereign credit profile.Moreover,speculative MXN longs already appear quite heavy,suggesting more volatility ahead.In the short term,however,MXN remains anchored by its high carry and support from large foreign investor participation in the bond market.But we believe these factors are being accommodated by a benign external environment,which may not last.In Chile,some disappointment on the pace of reforms from the business community has dampened the enthusiasm the market first had with the new government.Still,higher copper prices have lifted Chiles terms of trade and helped support the CLP.Local pension funds have also been buying domestic assets on apparent risk-reduction efforts,which has aided the CLP.From here we do not expect significant CLP strength,though do see room for USD-CLP to edge down to 650 by year end.The COPs outlook has improved thanks to higher oil prices which should induce FDI and portfolio inflows,helping the country finance its current account deficit.The growth picture looks steady,which is better than most of its regional peers where activity has been declining.RUB enjoys fiscal and current account surpluses,and rising oil prices provide another positive impulse Among the lower yielders,we prefer the PLN to the HUF,CZK and ILS Social security reform is key for BRL Bearish MXN over the long-term Higher copper supportive of CLP even though there has been some disappointment with the pace of reforms The COPs outlook has improved on the back of higher oil prices CURRENCIES EMERGING MARKETS 24 April 2019 4 Also,importantly,the government recently lowered the fiscal deficit target by less than had been feared(by only 0.3pp vs 0.5pp initial guidance).This averts a potential obstacle to COP appreciation and together with higher oil prices sets up an improved picture for the local currency.In Argentina,authorities have concentrated their efforts on FX stability following a third consecutive higher than expected inflation print this year.The central bank froze the current non-intervention band at USD-ARS top and bottom levels of 51.45 and 39.75 and indicated that they will not buy USD when USD-ARS falls below the band floor.Meanwhile,the government also instituted(voluntary)price controls on 60 food products until October in coordination with local companies,while freezing gas,electricity and public transportation tariffs until year end.Given the high uncertainty surrounding elections later in the year,we still see challenging macroeconomic and market conditions.Elections in focus for ARS 5 CURRENCIES EMERGING MARKETS 24 April 2019 Regional views 2 EM FX:like a bull in China shop 6 EM FX Trade Ideas 10 Asia at a glance 12 RMB:Open sesame impact from inclusions 13 Indonesian elections:Jokowi,Round 2 21 KRW:Won to break out?27 Asian FX Focus:Making hay while the sun shines(FX Policy Dashboard,Q1 2019)36 April MAS decision:A logical pause 45 CEEMEA at a glance 50 HUF:Still not pretty despite cosmetic tightening 51 LatAm at a glance 56 MXN:Mexico in 24 charts 57 Brazil trip notes:Focus on social security reform 62 IMF Spring Meetings:Support for LatAm markets alive and well(ish)66 Real effective exchange rates 70 HSBC Little Mac Valuation Ranges 76 Key global economic and FX assumptions 86 Currency reference table 88 Disclosure appendix 89 Disclaimer 91 Contents CURRENCIES EMERGING MARKETS 24 April 2019 6 EM FX as a whole was little changed over the past month.Within EM,however,currencies of commodity exporters generally outperformed importers albeit by a small margin relative to the rally in commodity prices(Charts 1 and 2).Despite this broad stalemate for EM FX,we believe there are still important themes to consider for the coming months:(i)the debate on“green shoots”in global growth;(ii)the prospect of a US-China trade deal(note:the latest potential date for a trade deal to be signed appears to have slipped further to 27 May,according to a 17 April report by the Wall Street Journal);(iii)and indexed inflows to China(See the previous edition of the EM FX Roadmap.)And it appears that there could be fourth theme now too:the supply-shock driven rise in commodity prices.We focus on the“green shoots”and on higher oil prices in this edition of the Roadmap.In particular,some are taking comfort in Chinas better-than-expected data.We are more circumspect about the magnitude of Chinas growth rebound than some market participants are expecting.In our view,the recovery is likely to be a modest one and the stimuli will only be enough to stabilise growth.As such,the positive impulse to EM growth and the respective currencies is unlikely to be as supportive as in the past.Meanwhile,there could be a negative spill over impact to EM FX if Chinas assets take a temporary wobble due to policy fine-tuning.The ongoing rise in oil prices will also affect our relative preferences in EM FX.The sharp increase in oil prices(and pork prices)is also a drag on sentiment,as it could reduce central banks ability to provide policy accommodation in the near-term.It draws into question whether some EM central banks can pivot like the Fed and others without triggering currency weakness.FX volatility may be very low now,but this may not persist given risks are rising(Chart 3).EM FX:like a bull in China shop Chinas“green shoots”may not be as supportive for EM FX as some believe