汇丰银行-新兴市场-外汇策略-新兴市场外汇路线图：就像一头闯进瓷器店的公牛-2019.4.24-92页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comChina’s“greenshoots”maynotbeassupportiveforEMFXassomebelieveAstrongUSD,sluggishgrowthelsewhereandahigherenergypriceposedownsideriskstomostEMcurrenciesWefavour‘quality’over‘quantity’forEMFXWefocuson“greenshoots”andonhigheroilpricesinthiseditionoftheRoadmap.Ontheformer,somearetryingtotakecomfortinChina’sbetter-than-expecteddatabutitisstillmorelikelythattheanticipatedrecoveryisamodestone,asthepolicystimulusismoremeasuredandtargetedthistime.ThissuggeststhatthepositiveimpulsetoEMgrowthandtherespectivecurrenciesisunlikelytobeassupportiveasinthepast.Meanwhile,ahigheroilpriceraisesthequestionwhethersomeEMcentralbankscantrulypivotliketheFedandothermajorcentralbankswithouttriggeringlocalcurrencyweakness.FXvolatilitymaybeverylownow,butthismaynotpersistgivendownsiderisksarerising.NetoilimportingcurrentaccountdeficitnamesthatalsohavehighcorrelationwithChina’sequitieshistorically–ZAR,CLP,MXN,IDR–couldtradewithhighervolatilityahead.Meanwhile,ourlong-standingpreferencefor‘quality’over‘quantity’forEMFXprevails.ThisshouldbethecasewhenconsideringthebroadUSDoutlookremainspositiveandsluggishEMgrowthandidiosyncraticriskspersist.InAsia,weanswersomekeyquestionsabouttheRMBandpotentialportfolioinflowswithmajorindexinclusionsforChineseassetsunderway.InIndonesia,withtheelectionoutcomeoutoftheway,confidenceintheIDRcouldimproveinthenearterm.WeexpectUSD-KRWtomovehigher–Korea’scurrentaccountsurplusisshrinkingrapidly,residents’portfoliooutflowsarerising,andsensitivitytopotentialequityoutflowsremainshigh.WealsoprovideapreviewoftheUSTreasury’s“currencymanipulation”reportanddiscussAsiancentralbanks’FXpoliciesinQ1.Elsewhere,theMASkeptallSGDNEERsettingsunchanged,asexpected,duetoweakcoreCPIandsub-potentialgrow...