汇丰银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场利率：担忧之墙可能变成担忧的悬崖-2019.6.6-43页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)InvestorsneedtofactorinaclusterofexternalfactorsWeremaincautiousandpreferlow-betacountrieslikeChina,Thailand,Israel,theCzechRepublicandHungaryWeturnmoreconstructiveonIndiaandarestillbullishonRussiaPolicysupportdoesn’tprovidemuchreliefinthefaceofawallofworryAlthoughEMbondshavesofarbeenmoreresilientthanEMFX,externalriskfactorshavecontinuedtoincrease,puttingsomekeyEMcountriesattheepicentreoftradetensions.TheyincludeUS-Chinatradetensions,theimpositionofUStariffsonMexico’simports,geo-politicalrisksintheMiddle-Eastandtheincreasedchanceofano-dealBrexit.Althoughthepolicybackdrophasturnedsupportiveforlocalbondmarkets,withseveralEMcentralbanksonapathofmonetaryeasing,wedon’tthinkthisprovidesmuchreliefinthefaceoftheseexternalrisks.Preferlow-betacountriesInourview,thiswallofworrycouldwellbecomeacliffofconcerns.WethereforeremaincautiousonEMlocalrates,preferringlow-betacountries–China(receive5yrNDIRS),Thailand(Long10-yearThaiGBs),Israel(long10-yearILGOVs),CzechRepublic(ASWCZGB10/23)andHungary(long3yrHGBs).FortheEMhighyielders,weturnmoreconstructiveonIndia(receiveINR1yr1yr),wherewethinkrecentelectionsshouldleadtopolicycontinuityandremainbullishonBrazil(LongNTNF2027s),Russia(Long5yrOFZ)andPhilippines(long2yrRPGBs).ThelinkbetweenEMlocalratesandFXWethinkthelinkbetweenFXandratesshouldbeweakerinlowyieldingmarkets.Assuch,lowyieldingAsianmarketswithhightradeexposuretoChina(Korea,SingaporeandThailand)canstillaffordlowerrateswithweakerexchangerates.However,anyexchangeratevolatilityinEMhighyieldersduetohighexportexposuretoChinaislikelytoripplethroughthelocalratesmarketsintheformofhigherriskprem...