汇丰银行-全球-金属与采矿业-全球金属产业2019年Q1：继续保持冷静-2019.1-104页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Themarketremainsjitteryoverslowingglobalgrowth,ongoingUS-ChinatradefrictionandChina’sabilitytoremainresilientRiskstogrowthareundoubtedlyrisingbutoureconomistsseeglobalGDPslowingmarginally,notcollapsingInthislightwecontinuetoarguethattheoutlookforcommoditydemandistoughbutbetterthanthebearswouldhaveusbelieveAcaseofthejitters:HSBC’seconomistshighlightinthereport,Tradingdown?(Updated),Q12019,thatriskstoglobalgrowtharerising.Afewemergingeconomiesarealreadyinrecessionandmuchofthedevelopedworldhasslowedmarkedly.DoubtshaveevenstartedtoemergeaboutthecontinuedstrengthoftheUSeconomy,andthereareconcernsabouttheChineseeconomymorebroadly.ForChinaapotentialreprieveintradetensionswilllikelyreducethenegativeimpactongrowthandsentiment.OurChinaeconomistsexpectpoliciestobecomemorepro-growth,andBeijinghasalreadystartedtoreflate.HSBC’sChinaMetalsandMiningteamseeamodestuptickindomesticdemandtowardsQ2,butcontinuetohighlightuncertaintyoverlongertermdemandvisibility.Betterthanwhatthebearssay:Whileweacknowledgethatthegeneralenvironmentforcommoditiesremainstough,webelievemuchofthisisalreadypricedin,anddonotseea2015-stylecollapse.Weremainselectiveinourapproachbasedontargetingexposuretocommoditieswiththemostrobustfundamentals.Commodityoutlook:WeretainourbulksoverbasepreferenceinQ1,seeingtheUS-ChinatradenegotiationsandamarginallystrongerUSDaskeysourcesofriskforbasemetalpriceperformance,whileseasonalfactorsaresupportiveofbulkpricing.Bulkslooklessattractiveovertimewithweakermarketfundamentalshowever.Inpreciousmetalswenotepalladiumhasrunhardasexpected.Weretainamodestlybullishviewongoldandconstructiveoutlookonplatinumlongerterm.Keypricechangesareshowninthetablebelow.MetalsQuarterlyQ12019EQUITIESMETALS&MININGGlobalHSBCMetals&MiningTeamEquityResearchHSBCSecurities(SA)(Pty)Limited+27(0)116764519|derryn.maade@za.hsbc.comIssuerofreport:H...