汇丰银行-全球-金属与采矿业-全球金属产业2019年Q1：继续保持冷静-2019.1-104页.pdf

Disclaimer&Disclosures Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.The market remains jittery over slowing global growth,ongoing US-China trade friction and Chinas ability to remain resilient Risks to growth are undoubtedly rising but our economists see global GDP slowing marginally,not collapsing In this light we continue to argue that the outlook for commodity demand is tough but better than the bears would have us believe A case of the jitters:HSBCs economists highlight in the report,Trading down?(Updated),Q1 2019,that risks to global growth are rising.A few emerging economies are already in recession and much of the developed world has slowed markedly.Doubts have even started to emerge about the continued strength of the US economy,and there are concerns about the Chinese economy more broadly.For China a potential reprieve in trade tensions will likely reduce the negative impact on growth and sentiment.Our China economists expect policies to become more pro-growth,and Beijing has already started to reflate.HSBCs China Metals and Mining team see a modest uptick in domestic demand towards Q2,but continue to highlight uncertainty over longer term demand visibility.Better than what the bears say:While we acknowledge that the general environment for commodities remains tough,we believe much of this is already priced in,and do not see a 2015-style collapse.We remain selective in our approach based on targeting exposure to commodities with the most robust fundamentals.Commodity outlook:We retain our bulks over base preference in Q1,seeing the US-China trade negotiations and a marginally stronger USD as key sources of risk for base metal price performance,while seasonal factors are supportive of bulk pricing.Bulks look less attractive over time with weaker market fundamentals however.In precious metals we note palladium has run hard as expected.We retain a modestly bullish view on gold and constructive outlook on platinum longer term.Key price changes are shown in the table below.Metals Quarterly Q1 2019 EQUITIES METALS&MINING Global HSBC Metals&Mining Team Equity Research HSBC Securities(SA)(Pty)Limited+27(0)11 676 4519| Issuer of report:HSBC Securities(SA)(Pty)Limited 22 January 2019*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ HSBC commodity price estimates Commodity Unit Spot*y-t-d avg*2019e Change vs.prior vs.spot 2020e Change vs.prior vs.spot Long term*Change vs.prior Aluminium USD/lb 0.84 0.83 0.91-6%8%0.98-4%16%1.00 0%Copper USD/lb 2.73 2.68 2.89-2%6%3.05 0%12%3.25 0%Nickel USD/lb 5.34 5.09 5.63-13%5%6.25-8%17%8.00 0%Zinc USD/lb 1.18 1.14 1.25-2%6%1.17 0%0%1.06 0%Ferrochrome USD/lb 1.04 1.04 1.14 0%9%1.16 4%12%1.08 0%Chrome USD/t 180 180 193-5%7%204-1%13%200 0%Manganese ore USD/dmtu 6.55 6.68 5.53 4%-16%4.30 0%-34%4.25 0%Iron ore fines(CIF)USD/t 75.6 74.5 67.0 3%-11%60.0 0%-21%60.0 0%Thermal coal spot USD/t 100 99 98 0%-2%92 0%-8%80 0%Hard coking coal USD/t 193 199 170 0%-12%155 0%-20%130 0%Gold USD/oz 1,284 1,288 1,314 2%2%1,345 0%5%1,350 0%Platinum#USD/oz 801 807 886-11%11%1,010-12%26%1,200-7%Palladium#USD/oz 1,375 1,319 1,256 14%-9%1,265 11%-8%1,225 7%*Prices as at close,18 January 2019;*in 2019 USD terms;Price revisions made in Gold outlook report published on 7th January 2019.#Price revisions made in Precious Metals Daily report,published on 14 January 2019.Source:Bloomberg,Refinitiv DataStream,HSBC estimates Keep calm and carry on EQUITIES METALS&MINING 22 January 2019 2 A case of the jitters HSBCs economists highlight in the report,Trading down?(Updated),Q1 2019,that global growth is slowing and risks are rising.A few emerging economies are already in recession and much of the developed world has slowed markedly.Doubts have even started to emerge about the continued strength of the US economy,the one big advanced country that has been doing so much to lift global growth over the past year.All this is happening at a time when the trade frictions between the US and China are far from resolved and when there are concerns about the Chinese economy more broadly.For China,although it is facing both domestic and external headwinds,a potential reprieve in trade tensions will likely reduce the negative impact on growth and sentiment(Xi-Trump Meeting:A window of opportunity,2 December 2018).Our China economists expect policies to become more pro-growth,with a moderate step back on de-leveraging and highlight that Beijing has already started to reflate.HSBCs China Metals and Mining team see a modest uptick in domestic demand towards Q2,but continue to highlight uncertainty over longer term demand visibility.(see China Steel:Bending,not breaking,14 December 2018 and China Steel:Bending,not breaking part II,9 January 2019).While local sentiment remains fragile,the team believe investors may be willing to add risk into Q2.Better than what the bears say While we acknowledge that the general environment for commodities remains tough,we believe much of this is already priced in,and do not see a 2015-style collapse.In the report,Asian Economics Quarterly,Brace,brace(Updated),Q1 2019,our Asia economists believe that as we head into the Year of the Pig,things may look a little less daunting,than the perfect storm of negative factors that gave investors cause for concern in the second half of 2018.China and the US are back talking,with tariff hikes for now suspended,the Fed is moving towards a pause,China is easing at the margin,and oil prices have plunged.However,the global cycle is still cooling,providing headwinds for exporters,and China will have to accelerate policy measures to stabilise growth.We therefore remain selective in our approach based on targeting exposure to commodities with the most robust fundamentals.Commodity outlook We retain our bulks over base preference in Q1,seeing the US-China trade negotiations and a marginally stronger USD as key sources of risk for base metal price performance,while seasonal factors are supportive of bulk pricing.The gap between relative performance is closing rapidly,however,as Bulks continue to look less attractive over the medium term with weaker market fundamentals.In precious metals we note palladium has run hard as expected.We retain a modestly bullish view on gold and constructive outlook on platinum longer term.Key price changes In the near term we have extended our cautious view on base metal prices,brought our PGMs outlook closer to current pricing(As per Precious Metals Daily report,published on 14 January 2019)and kept our bulks pricing largely intact.Keep calm and carry on The market remains jittery over slowing global growth,ongoing US-China trade friction and Chinas ability to remain resilient Risks to growth are undoubtedly rising but our economists see global GDP slowing marginally,not collapsing In this light we continue to argue that the outlook for commodity demand is tough but better than the bears would have us believe EQUITIES METALS&MINING 22 January 2019 3 Summarising the landscape The Commodity Scanner gives a quick-glance positioning of each commodity within our coverage based upon a measure of supply vs demand(surplus/deficit)and the forecast trajectory loosening i.e.growing availability of commodity,or tightening i.e.diminishing availability of commodity.We note the spectrum of dynamics impacting our commodity universe,which we believe will result in a range of price performances over the coming years.In our view,it will not be appropriate to assume all commodities are tied to the same fate.Being commodity selective is important.Ranking the commodities:We order the commodities on pricing outlook,highlighting the drivers responsible for our forecasts.Commodity Scanner A quick-glance positioning of individual commodities within our coverage Ranking our commodity universe Commodity Key catalyst Comment Most preferred Nickel Inventory draw-down on sustained market deficits over the medium term.Despite currently bearing the brunt of US-China Trade Wars,we see strong medium term fundamentals for the nickel market.Neutral Platinum Sustained palladium price strength may incentivise autocat switching back into platinum over time Speculative positioning looks overdone&could see short term relief,while a recovery in Chinese jewellery demand may help in the MT Palladium Continued market tightness and burgeoning Chinese auto demand on tightening legislation Sustained price premium required to encourage switching into rhodium first,and then platinum Aluminium Stimulus and reforms in China,US China trade deal Slowdown risks balanced by tighter market Copper Stimulus measures taken by Chinese government Supply growth decelerating;the market hanging in tight balance Zinc Trade tensions,strong USD and easing supply Supply to outpace demand from 2019e onwards Chrome Stocks declined below normalised levels We see a balanced market on swing supply Gold Trade and geopolitical tensions Perception of safe-haven status key to pricing Alumina Return of Alunorte Supply ramp-up to loosen market Ferrochrome Rising cost support from recovery in chrome prices Demand buffered by rising contribution of ferritic SS Met Coal Strong crude steel production Tight supply keeps prices high Thermal Coal China supply discipline Supply discipline to provide support to prices Iron Ore Declining Chinese crude steel output;higher share of EAF in China Seasonal price support in Q1 from Chinese steel restocking cycle and weather-related iron ore supply disruptions Least preferred Manganese Inventory overhang and marginal supply Prices to pull back on weak fundamentals Source:HSBC estimates Commodity Scanner:charting the dynamics impacting commodities within our coverage Source:TC/RC refers to Treatment Charges and Refining Charges;Source:HSBC estimates SurplusLooseningTighteningDeficitZincCopperNickelPalladiumPlatinumCokingCoalThermal CoalAluminiumIron OreZinc TCMost preferredNeutralLeast preferredFeCrChromeCopper TC/RCsManganeseGoldAlumina EQUITIES METALS&MINING 22 January 2019 4 Keep calm and carry on 2 Commodity Scanner 3 Commodity-Key charts to consider 5 Commodity spot prices and HSBC forecasts 6 Commodity summaries 8 Aluminium:Near-term pressure;medium-term deficit intact 14 Copper:Overshadowed by macro concerns 24 Nickel:In a state of flux near term 32 Zinc:Worst of both worlds 40 Steel:Slowdown concerns loom large 46 Iron ore:Seasonality outweighs temporary panic 50 Met Coal:Tight supply keeps prices high 56 Thermal coal:Supply discipline to provide support to prices 60 Manganese:An imminent fall approaches 64 Ferrochrome:Prices to recover on rising cost support 68 Chrome:Limited downside as inventories have normalised 74 Gold:On the move 78 Platinum:No respite in sight 84 Palladium:Compelling fundamentals 88 Commodities consumption trends 92 HSBC commodities,metal&mining equities 94 China demand indicators 95 Disclosure appendix 98 Disclaimer 103 Contents EQUITIES METALS&MINING 22 January 2019 5 1.HSBCs global GDP forecasts 2.Global growth has cooled 3.Latest slowdown in global trade volume growth Source:HSBC forecasts Source:HSBC estimates,Refinitiv Datastream,Markit Economics Source:CPB World Trade Monitor*Parenthesis show forecasts published in the Global Economics Quarterly Q4 2018 4.Tax cut and infrastructure to support China growth 5.Copper/Platinum speculative positioning 6.Iron ore speculative positioning Source:CEIC,HSBC Source:Refinitiv Datastream,CFTC,HSBC Source:Refinitiv Datastream,CFTC,HSBC (800)(600)(400)(200)-200 400 600 800 1,000(500,000)-500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17Dec-17May-18Oct-18Platinum(koz)Copper(kt)-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Net position(kt)Commodity-Key charts to consider EQUITIES METALS&MINING 22 January 2019 6 Aluminium Copper Nickel 1,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,600Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average 4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average 6,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates Zinc Iron ore(CIF)Thermal coal 1,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2003,6004,000Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average 30405060708090100Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates 406080100120140Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated averageCommodity spot prices and HSBC forecasts EQUITIES METALS&MINING 22 January 2019 7 Gold Platinum Palladium 1,0001,1001,2001,3001,400Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/ozSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average 7509501,1501,350Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/ozSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average 4505506507508509501,0501,1501,2501,350Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20USD/ozSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates Source:Refinitiv Datastream,HSBC estimates HSBC versus consensus estimates _ 2019e _ _ 2020e _ _ 2021e _ Unit y-t-d*HSBC Consensus vs Consensus HSBC Consensus vs Consensus HSBC Consensus vs Consensus Base metals and iron ore Aluminium USD/t 1,839 2,008 2,150-7%2,154 2,175-1%2,281 2,250 1%Copper USD/t 5,901 6,366 6,545-3%6,724 6,945-3%6,944 7,018-1%Nickel USD/t 11,223 12,401 13,475-8%13,779 13,985-1%15,432 15,000 3%Zinc USD/t 2,510 2,750 2,729 1%2,579 2,697-4%2,425 2,848-15%Iron ore USD/t 74.5 67.0 62.4 7%60.0 57.0 5%60.0 59.0 2%Precious metals Gold USD/oz 1,288 1,314 1,271 3%1,345 1,300 3%1,350 1,307 3%Platinum USD/oz 807 886 906-2%1,010 950 6%1,110 1,000 11%Palladium USD/oz 1,319 1,256 1,118 12%1,265 1,055 20%1,275 1,084 18%Note:*y-t-d average price as at close of 18 January 2019;Source:Refinitiv Datastream,Bloomberg,HSBC estimates Commodity spot prices and HSBC forecasts We would like to acknowledge the contribution from Ishan Jain*,Associate;Vidhya Sreelalan*,Associate;Akanksha Singh*,Associate,Harikrishna CS*Associate,Guru Prasad Chowdhary*,Associate,Manish Kumar Gupta*,Associate and Gourav Shrivastava*,Associate,Bangalore to this research report.*Employed by a non-US affiliat