汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-全球整装油Q4结果：我们需要看到更多-2019.2.13-40页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ A solid 4Q:cash flows down 6%q-o-q but up 40%y-o-y Sector solidly FCF-positive;breakeven USD53/b in 2019e Reiterate Buy ratings on BP,ENI,REP,TOT,XOM 4Q a solid quarter.The major oils followed the strength of their 3Q performance with another solid set of results at 4Q.For those that have reported to date,cash flow was down 6%q-o-q(on a 10%fall in Brent)but up by over 40%y-o-y.Sector cash flow is back to levels last seen in 2014,when crude prices were above USD100/b.1Q19 will be a tougher test:lower crude prices(we forecast Brent USD9/b q-o-q)and much weaker downstream margins mean we expect sector cash flow down 12%q-o-q in 1Q.Even with macro pressure across all divisions,cash flow should annualise at levels comfortably above our expectations for FY19 capex plus dividends.This illustrates the sectors robustness,with its FCF breakeven of USD53/b in 2019e.Valuations are still attractive.The sector held up well in 4Q given the scale of the fall in crude prices.Nonetheless we think the strength of prospective free cash yields(sector average 7.3%in 19e at USD64/b,9.0-9.5%in 20-21e at USD70/b)justifies a further sector re-rating,and the value gap vs previous yield and P/CF relatives still looks substantial.A few stocks that stood out at 4Q results were:Buy-rated BP had one of the strongest results vs consensus,with the strength of its 4Q underlying cash flow(USD8.7bn,+19%q-o-q and+73%y-o-y)particularly notable.Hold-rated Shell followed up its sector-leading 3Q cash flow with another USD13bn quarter,and its USD25bn buyback programme is becoming increasingly de-risked Buy-rated Total produced a rare cash flow disappointment at 4Q,but sector-leading volume growth in 19e and the lowest 19e-21e EV/DACF multiples of the majors make it an attractive proposition in our view.13 February 2019 Gordon Gray*Global Head of Oil and Gas Equity Research HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6787 Kim Fustier*Analyst,Oil&Gas HSBC Bank plc +44 20 3359 2136 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Global integrated oils EQUITIES OIL&GAS Global Integrated oils summary of ratings and valuation Current _ TP _ Upside/Div yield _ 2019e _ Company/ticker Currency price Old New Rating downside 2019e P/E EV/CF FC yield SoTP value BP(BP/LN)GBp 544.0 630 660 Buy 21.3%5.9%14.2 6.5 6.8%702 Chevron(CVX US)USD 117.6 122.0 126.0 Hold 7.2%4.1%18.0 7.9 6.8%144.2 ExxonMobil(XOM US)USD 74.0 82.0 85.0 Buy 14.9%4.5%14.0 8.2 5.2%88.8 Shell A(RDSA LN)GBp 2,414.0 2,640 2,750 Hold 13.9%6.0%11.5 6.6 7.1%2,797 Shell B(RDSB LN)GBp 2,443.0 2,680 2,775 Hold 13.6%5.9%11.6 6.6 7.3%2,797 Total(FP FP)EUR 48.43 56.0 57.5 Buy 18.7%5.5%11.5 6.2 7.8%68.2 ENI(ENI IM)EUR 14.5 17.60 17.80 Buy 22.6%5.9%12.8 4.6 8.6%23.0 Repsol(REP SQ)EUR 14.9 17.70 18.00 Buy 21.1%6.5%9.7 5.1 8.3%21.6 Equinor(EQNR NO)NOK 193.0 206.0 215.0 Hold 11.4%4.7%13.1 5.2 7.5%221 Source:HSBC estimates,priced as of close at 8 February 2018 4Q results:more of what we need to see EQUITIES OIL&GAS 13 February 2019 2 Another solid quarter:greater tests await in 1Q The big oils 3Q results were a hard act to follow given how strong they were,but 4Q results(for those of the group that have reported to date)were mostly solid again.Although the average Brent crude price fell by USD8/b(10%)q-o-q,company cash flows were only down 6%on average,helped variously by seasonality,further efficiency gains and strong downstream performances.BP was the standout vs 3Q in our view but Shell was also notable for repeating the strength of cash generation seen in the third quarter.Relative to our estimates(theres no consensus for cash flow)BP,Equinor and Shell were well ahead,Exxon and Chevron broadly in line and Total somewhat disappointing.ENI and Repsol have yet to report 4Q results.Looking at the past twelve months,the strongest y-o-y growth in cash flow has been at Chevron and ENI(the latter on our 4Q estimate).This reflects these companies high leverage to crude prices,and their recovery from more depressed levels than the peer group.Total and Equinor have shown the opposite effect below average y-o-y growth at both largely reflects the base effect of how well their cash flows held up during the downturn.Integrated oils 4Q underlying cash flow:change vs 3Q18,pct Integrated oils:change in rolling 12-month underlying USD cash flow,y-o-y Source:Company reports,HSBC estimates.NB ENI and REP figures are HSBC estimates,the remainder are actuals Source:Company reports,HSBC estimates.NB ENI and REP figures are HSBC estimates,the remainder are actuals The chart below shows 12-month rolling cash flows relative to where they were at the last peak,i.e.the period to 3Q/4Q2014.Through the downturn Total and Equinors cash flows were notable for their robustness,while Chevron and ENIs were hardest hit by the downturn.As of 4Q18,the sectors cash flow had recovered to 95%of peak levels,on an average rolling 12-month Brent price of only 70%of peak.Shell has seen the strongest recovery boosted of course by the BG transaction.The most notable laggards relative to previous peak levels remain ENI and Exxon.-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%EQNR TOTCVXREPENIXOMRDSBP0%10%20%30%40%50%60%REPTOT EQNR XOMBPRDSENICVXMore of what we need to see A solid 4Q:cash flows down 6%q-o-q but up 40%y-o-y Sector solidly FCF-positive;breakeven USD53/b in 2019e Reiterate Buy ratings on BP,ENI,REP,TOT,XOM 3 EQUITIES OIL&GAS 13 February 2019 Rolling 12-month CFFO in USD,indexed from peak(12 months to 3Q/4Q14)Source:Company reports,HSBC estimates.NB ENI and REP figures for 4Q18 are HSBC estimates The chart below shows the volatility of the oil majors quarterly cash flows since 2010,encompassing periods of prolonged crude price strength as well as the recent major downturn.Total has exhibited consistently the lowest level of cash flow volatility and ENI,Equinor and Repsol the highest.In Repsols case this is in large part due to the transformative nature of the Talisman acquisition in 2015.In Equinors case the quarter-on-quarter volatility relates in part to the timing of Norwegian cash tax payments across the year,with one payment due in 1Q and 3Q of each year and two payments due in each 2Q and 4Q.Volatility of quarterly cash flows,2010-4Q18 Source:Company reports,HSBC.NB ENI and REP figures are HSBC estimates The eight major oils in our coverage generated combined cash flow of USD55.1bn in the fourth quarter.This was down 6%vs the third quarter,but it was still the second highest combined total since 3Q 2014,when Brent crude was at USD108/b.The sectors aggregate cash flow reached USD209bn over the past twelve months,at an average Brent price for the period of USD71.6/b.For FY 2019 we forecast combined cash flow broadly unchanged at USD209bn,despite our assumption of a USD64/b Brent price average.We see several factors supporting cash flows in 2019:Stronger refining margins in 2H as we approach the implementation of IMO 2020 Narrower differentials on US tight oil prices in the upstream(although there is an offsetting effect in the downstream)304050607080901001101203Q/4Q143Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q18BPCVXXOMRDSTOTENIEQNR0%10%20%30%40%50%60%TOTRDSXOMBPCVXENIEQNRREP EQUITIES OIL&GAS 13 February 2019 4 Volume growth,which we expect to reach 4%on average for the group coupled with which we should see good cash margin accretion from the new output Cost and efficiency gains.Comments from company managements with 4Q results underline that at the moment,inflationary pressures remain limited.In addition,most companies see further potential to reduce costs and improve efficiency,not least through digitisation Rolling 12-month cash flow from operations vs 12-month average Brent price,UDS/b Source:Company reports,HSBC.NB ENI and REP figures in the 4Q total are HSBC estimates While cash flow is back up close to previous peaks,capex is still running at a rate of around 40%of peak levels.Rolling 12-month organic capex and Brent price,USD/b Source:Company reports,HSBC.NB ENI and REP figures in the 4Q total are HSBC estimates Company guidance for 2019 capex reflects a range of approaches,but generally points to managements sticking to the capital discipline of recent years:In 2018 BP and Shell both had capex at the bottom of their guidance ranges of USD15-17bn and USD25-30bn respectively.These spending ranges remain unchanged,although there is no more specific guidance for 2019 at this stage.Shell added the point that any acquisitions it may do in the year would be done within this overall capex framework.Chevrons 2018 spend of USD20.1bn was already at the top of its USD18-20bn guidance range,albeit including USD0.6bn inorganic spend.For 2019,management expects organic capex of USD20bn.020406080100120050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0004Q122Q134Q132Q144Q142Q154Q152Q164Q162Q174Q172Q184Q18eUnderlying CFFO($m)Brent price,USD/b(RHS)204060801001200501001502002501Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18Organic capex($bn)Brent price,USD/b(RHS)5 EQUITIES OIL&GAS 13 February 2019 Exxon guided to a step-change increase in capex in its 2018 strategy update.In 2018 spending reached USD26bn,USD2bn above guidance as a result of acquisitions in Brazil and Indonesia.For 2019,management has now increased guidance from USD28bn to USD30bn,highlighting increased upside in the Permian and in Guyana as reasons.Total guided to 2019 net capex(after net disposals)of USD15-16bn,the bottom half of the USD15-17bn range out to 2020.Within this,organic capex is expected to increase from around USD12.5bn last year to USD14-14.5bn(+15%y-o-y),reflecting increasing activity on upstream project developments.Equinor extended its guidance on organic capex of around USD11bn by one year to 2019-21.This implies a very gradual increase from last years spend of USD9.9bn,and leaves scope for Equinor to surprise further on the downside as it has for the past 3 years.At its full year 2018 results on 15 February,we expect ENI to guide to 2019 capex of around EUR8bn,up 2%y-o-y in USD terms(6%in EUR),in line with its guidance of EUR32bn over the 2018-21 period.At its full year 2018 results on 28 February,we expect Repsol to guide to organic capex rising from EUR3.2bn in 2018(or EUR4bn including the Viesgo acquisition)to EUR3.8-3.9bn in 2019e and EUR4.3bn in 2020e,excluding future acquisition spend in new energies.While this implies a 30%increase in two years(in USD terms),it comes off a depressed 2018 base.The charts below illustrate the current state of play with organic free cash flow.They show the companies 12-month historic cash flow from operations(at an actual average Brent price of USD72/b)as a proportion of 1)cash capex for FY18,and 2)cash capex plus full cash dividends for 2018.On this basis,organic cash flows for the year were running at a level which covered cash capex commitments and dividends(on a full cash basis)by an average of 1.2x.12-month rolling CFFO as%of 2018 cash capex 12-month rolling CFFO as%of 2018 cash capex plus full dividends Source:Company reports,HSBC.NB ENI and REP figures are HSBC estimates Source:Company reports,HSBC.NB ENI and REP figures are HSBC estimates As a group,the Big Oils were consistently free cash negative(organic cash flow after capex and dividends)from 2012 right through until the second half of 2017 including much of the period when Brent was above USD100/b.They have now moved significantly free cash positive on our calculations,the sectors aggregate organic free cash flow reached USD40bn in 2018,the highest total since 2006.While we see aggregate free cash falling to USD24bn in 2019e(at USD64/b Brent),we expect it to remain solidly positive,since the sectors average free cash breakeven is only around USD53/b(excluding Exxon).Thereafter,at our USD70/b Brent price forecast we see around USD40bn pa excess free cash flow pa through 2020e-22e.0%50%100%150%200%250%ENIREP EQNRBPRDSTOTXOMCVX0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%XOMENIRDSBPTOTREP EQNR CVX EQUITIES OIL&GAS 13 February 2019 6 US and European major oils-moving strongly free cash positive(sector aggregate organic cash flow and FCF,USDbn)Source:Company reports,HSBC.NB ENI and REP figures in the 2018 total are HSBC estimate The figures above are given after full cash dividends.For the European majors in particular,free cash cover of dividends has been a critical point of investor attention through the crude price downturn.For this group of companies(see chart below),the period 2013-16 saw cash flows barely covering cash capex,with dividends representing an additional burden of around USD40bn pa in total.Major oils-moving strongly free cash positive(sector aggregate organic free cash flow,USDbn)Source:Company reports,HSBC.N.B.ENI and REP figures in the 2018 total are HSBC estimate The use of scrip dividends eased the cash outflow by as much as USD13bn pa in total at their 2016-17 peak(mostly from Shell and Total),but now all ongoing scrip dividend dilution has been eliminated.For the Europeans as a group,we forecast a total of USD13bn of buybacks in 2019 and USD17bn in 2020,while we expect a combined USD10bn from Chevron and Exxon in 2020.Shell is set to provide most of the European sectors buybacks in the next two years at an estimated USD10bn pa.We expect USD1bn of buybacks from BP this year as it fulfils its commitment to offset previous scrip dilution,but potential for a good USD4bn pa in the longer term.Chevron has guided to USD1bn of buybacks in 1Q19,a run-rate we expect to remain for the rest of 2019 although we see potential for growth to USD6bn for the full year in 2020.3040506070809010011012010012014016018020022024026028020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022eFCF(+ve/-ve)Cash flowCapex+full dividendBrent(USD,RHS)-20-100102030405060708020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022eSector FCF before dividendsDividends(ex-scrip)Cash dividend plus buybacksScrip dividendsShare buybacks 7 EQUITIES OIL&GAS 13 February 2019 While expectations for buybacks from Exxon are extremely low given its capital expenditure plan,we think it has flexibility to restart buybacks in 2020,and forecast an initial USD4bn.Total guided to buybacks of USD1.5bn in 2019,in line with 2018.This leaves USD2bn of buybacks for 2020 in order to reach its USD5bn commitment over 2018-20.Equinor did not announce a buyback programme but raised its 4Q18 dividend by 13%,triple the rate we had expected.We no longer expect ENI to announce the launch a buyback plan for 2019 at its March strategy day,but forecast a 3.6%increase in dividends for 2019.We forecast the sectors organic free cash breakeven(cash flow less cash capex and dividends)at around USD53/b in 2019(excl