汇丰银行-全球-农业行业-全球肥料产业：寻找亮点-2019.10.21-30页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCSecurities(USA)IncViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOMAINLANDCHINAUreastandsoutasthemostdefensivesegmentamidweakeningfertilizerpricesWeturncautiousonshort-termureapricebutspreadatmultiyearhighbenefitsearningsWepreferBuy-ratedOCI(TPEUR26.60),CF(TPtoUSD55fromUSD52),ChinaBlue(TPHKD2.54)inthespaceWeleverageourresearchpresenceinChina,MiddleEast,USandIndiatodevelopaglobalviewonureasupplyanddemanddynamicsAlthoughweakdemandin2019hasseenNPKpricesnosediving,ureahasremainedlargelystableduetotighteningsupplydespitefallingenergycosts.Inourview,ureabalancecouldtightenfurtherin2020withnetcapacityadditionsexpectedtobethelowestinthisdecadeandasdemandreboundsonagronomicneeds.Wetakeacautiousviewonshort-termureaprices,however,asmacroheadwindslikelowerenergypricesandFXhavetrimmedthecostcurvebyUSD15-20/t;wecutourpriceforecastsby5-7%(pg3).Neverthelessureaspreadisclosetoa5yrhigh(pg2)andanyfurtherdeclineinenergycostsshouldsupportprofitabilityinourview.GrowingproductioninChina(pg10)presentsashort-termriskbutnotenoughtoderailbroaderrecoveryinourview(seeSowingtheSeedsofGrowth27Jan2019).Supplyconstraintcouldsustainurearecovery:Althoughglobalutilizationisatc77%,manylow-cost,export-orienteddestinationsareoperatingatclosetofullutilization(pg2),henceamajorpartofsupplyhastocomefromhigh-costregionsthatholdthecurrentpricefloor.In2020,seasonalandtradeconstraintsshouldwarrantasharpriseinutilizationrates(+3-6%)inregionsclosertoendmarketsandNorthAmericanproducerswilllikelyhavetoswitchawayfromothernitrogenproducts,therebyeventuallyimprovingspreadsforthenitrogenchain.Ourpreferredpicks,allratedBuy:WelikeOCI(TPEUR26.60)duetoitsdeleveragingstoryandpotentialtocrystallizevaluefromaccretiveinvestments;CFIndustries(TPtoUSD55fromUSD52)givenitsscale,costadvantageandstrongcashgeneration;Chin...