汇丰银行-中国-投资策略-中国多资产策略：欢迎来到猪年-2019.1-84页.pdf

Disclaimer&Disclosures:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of ithttps:/Play Videos:Part 1:Macro Part 2:EquitiesChina multi-asset specialWelcome to the Year of the PigChinas economy and currency look set for a bumpy ride this yearBut we still see plenty of potential upside for the A-and H-share markets as well as government bondsThis report summarises the views of our macro teams,equity analysts and strategistsMULTI-ASSETCHINAJanuary 2019每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。1 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 As we head into the Year of the Pig,we offer clients our multi-asset views on China by providing two-page summaries of 35 different reports.They reflect the thoughts of our macro teams on the economy,FX,rates,credit,and ESG,and include thematic reports by equity strategists and analysts.We also highlight the growing body of work produced by our joint venture,HSBC Qianhai Securities.A very warm welcome to the Year of the Pig Last year proved to be a challenging time for the Chinese economy.The escalation of the trade war with the US hurt sentiment and created uncertainty about the outlook for the business environment and the currency.Financial deleveraging has by and large continued despite marginal relaxation in regulations.As a result,broad credit growth has continued to ease,making life particularly difficult for the private sector,the heartbeat of the economy.Both the domestic and external challenges are likely to persist in 2019.However,we believe more policies to support domestic demand,especially tax cuts,will be introduced in order to cushion the impact on economic growth.We also think that,after a strong year,further gains in China bonds are likely in 2019 as Beijing continues to provide policy accommodation.We believe that,despite a difficult year,the outlook for A-and H-shares is bright given the right conditions our house view that US interest rates will peak in September 2019 is one of those conditions.Our equity analysts share their ideas on a wide range of sectors,while our strategists look at the markets,demographics,supply chains and SOE reform.Meanwhile,our coverage of A-shares continues to expand as a result of our joint venture,HSBC Qianhai Securities,which was launched in December 2017.The initiative reflects the growing importance of Chinas domestic equity markets,which are already Asias largest in terms of market capitalisation and trading volumes,and are expected to see a significant increase in foreign participation now that MSCI has added more than 200 A-shares to its emerging market index.Our growing team of equity analysts at HSBC Qianhai Securities has produced a series of in-depth reports covering everything from baiju,beer,fintech and cybersecurity,to healthcare,media,the Internet,semiconductors and smartphones.Our coverage will become even broader this year.A very happy Year of the Pig from all of us at HSBC Global Research and HSBC Qianhai Securities.Introduction Dilip Shahani Head of Global Research,Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 4520 William Bratton*Head of Equity Research,Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 1622 Steven Sun*,CFA(S1700517110003)Head of Research,HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited +86 755 8898 3158 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Credit growth has continued to ease Our coverage of A-shares continues to expand MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 2 Introduction 1 HSBC Global Research and HSBC Qianhai Securities:Major China reports 4 Economics:2019 outlook five key macro trends 8 Economics:The Greater Bay Area many cities,one goal 10 FX:Our RMB forecast 12 Rates:The bull run continues 14 Credit:Local government debt knowns and unknowns 16 ESG:What MSCI A-share inclusion means for ESG 18 Equity Strategy:2019 H-share outlook why we remain believers 20 Equity Strategy:SOE reform when Karl Marx meets Adam Smith III 22 Equity Strategy:The rise of Chinas empty nesters 24 Equity Strategy:Retooling Asias supply chains 26 Auto components:Going global the key to success 28 Autos:Our 2019 dashcam 30 Brokers:Stock-pledged lending a long overhang 32 Financials survey:Anatomy of a consumer 34 Infrastructure:On the move again 36 Internet advertising:Slower growth,new players 38 Real Estate:A city-by-city debt health check 40 Telecoms:5G in focus 42 Utilities:The Belt and Road how to plug the power gap 44 HSBC Qianhai Securities Equity Strategy:Our 2019 outlook for A-shares 46 Beer:Cheers heres to better profits for brewers 48 Custom furniture:New floor plans 50 E&C:Building up to a sector re-rating 52 Good spirits:A toast to baijiu 54 Healthcare:Our prognosis for the sector to 2030 56 Contents 3 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 Healthcare:The benefits of quicker drug approvals 58 IT Software:The rise of Chinas digital doctors 60 Machinery:Plenty to build on 62 Media:A Hollywood moment for Chinas film-makers 64 Media&Internet:Big data,new values,future trends 66 Media&Internet:The keys to Chinas digital kingdom 68 Semiconductors:Chinas great chip challenge 70 Smartphones:How the supply chain can beat the sales slowdown 72 Software:A cybersecurity revolution in the cloud era 74 Software:Fintech investment to surge in a new policy era 76 Disclosure appendix 78 Disclaimer 82 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 4 Economics Where is the“credit gap”?Chinas debt ratio stabilizing,25 April 2018 Trade wars Round two:China,retaliation and the auto threat,21 June 2018 US-China tariffs Businesses to feel the impact more than consumers,21 June 2018 China Inside Out Its all about domestic demand,29 June 2018 China Inside Out China easing:Tax cuts hold the key,25 July 2018 Chinas Greater Bay Area Many cities,one goal,1 August 2018 A blessing in disguise Why a trade war will strengthen China-EM links,31 August 2018 China in 2019 Five key macro themes,22 November 2018 US-China trade perspectives Countdown to Buenos Aires and beyond,26 November 2018 US-China trade truce Tariff increase suspended for 90 days,2 December 2018 Xi-Trump Meeting A window of opportunity,2 December 2018 China PBoC cuts rates for private and SME loans,20 December 2018 China Beijing pledges stronger reflation measures in 2019,21 December 2018 China PBoC cuts RRR by 100bps:Economics&FX Implications,4 January 2019 FX Asian FX Focus:RMB Go at your own pace,12 October 2018 Emerging Markets FX Roadmap 2019 Outlook:From red to amber,26 November 2018 China PBoC cuts RRR by 100bps:Economics&FX Implications,4 January 2019 Asia FX Focus 2009 outlook:No sweet sixteen,10 January 2019 HSBC Global Research and HSBC Qianhai Securities:Major China reports 5 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 Rates EM Action Trade still on the tip of the tongue,10 December 2018 China An indirect rate cut:The PBoCs Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility,20 December 2018 China Rates 2019:The bull run continues,7 January 2019 EM Action EM central banks sighing with sense of Fed relief,14 January 2019 Credit China Onshore Insights Local government debt:the knowns and unknowns,4 October 2018 China Onshore Insights Flight to quality crimps the private sector,14 December 2018 China LGFVs The ones to watch in 2019:Tension remains,but contagion risks contained,17 December 2018 China Property HY 2019 Outlook:Climbing the wall of fear,12 December 2018 Greater China Technology No longer a defensive play,17 December 2018 Climate Change/Environment,Social,Governance(ESG)A greener China Battles in the war on pollution,11 April 2018 ESG matters What MSCI A-share inclusion means for ESG,31 May 2018 Equity Strategy China:Looking at the bigger picture Global Equity Data Monitor,15 April 2018 Making money from Chinese demographics The rise of Chinas empty nesters,10 May 2018 Global Equity Strategy US-China tariffs:Assessing the corporate impact,16 May 2018 One small step for A-shares,one giant leap for China Global Equity Data Monitor,20 May 2018 China Investment Atlas(Issue 64)2H18:Light at the end of the tunnel(its not a train),6 July 2018 China tax reform What it means for different industry sectors,8 September 2018 China Investment Atlas(Issue 65)4Q18:All eyes on 2019 earnings growth,19 October 2018 SOE reform in China When Karl Marx meets Adam Smith III:Moving towards a level playing field,22 November 2018 China Investment Atlas(Issue 66)2019 outlook:Why we remain believers,3 December 2018 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 6 Equities Asia Utilities Chinas Belt and Road Initiative:How to plug the power gap,27 February 2018 China Deluxe Anatomy of the future luxury consumer,7 March 2018 China Cement Initiate coverage:Party still on re-rating to continue,8 March 2018 Global LNG-the glut abates,the crunch awaits,27 March 2018 5G:Whats the use?,29 March 2018 HSBC 2018 China Conference The big picture,11 May 2018 China Real Estate Joining the dots:Finding the new property hot spots,23 May 2018 China Truck Industry Initiate coverage:A new era of sustained growth,25 May 2018 5G in Asia Generation gap,30 May 2018 Operation Unicorn China and Hong Kong move to attract new economy listings,31 May 2018 China Autos Whos afraid of the big bad WOFE?,12 June 2018 Global Energy and Industrials:IMO 2020:A long bill for clean air,13 July 2018 China Financials Survey Anatomy of a financial consumer,19 July 2018 China Telemedicine Pulsing with opportunity,26 July 2018 China Environmental Initiate coverage:How to monetise Beautiful China,8 August 2018 China Banks Look up,higher NIMs about,16 August 2018 China Telcos Stay positive:5G risk is overblown,11 September 2018 China Brokers Stock-pledged lending:A long overhang,19 September 2018 China Lodging Initiate coverage on Huazhu:Room at the inn,21 September 2018 China Cement Stay positive and ride on the powerful policy tailwinds,4 October 2018 China Real Estate 2019 Outlook:Sector looks cheap,but wait until 1Q19,11 October 2018 China Infrastructure On the move again,9 November 2018 China Healthcare Value-shifting in healthcare,15 November 2018 China Healthcare Fast forward:the benefits of quicker drug approvals,16 November 2018 China Machinery Initiate coverage:Plenty to build on,22 November 2018 China Auto Components Going global:the overseas roadmap for Chinas parts suppliers,23 November 2018 China Autos:Our 2019 dashcam After going in reverse,growth set to shift into first gear,29 November 2018 China Internet Advertising What slower growth and new players mean for the future of online advertising,12 December 2018 China Real Estate A city-by-city debt health check,9 January 2019 Oil in 2019:Range bound:OPEC cut meets US shale glut,13 January 2019 7 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 HSBC Qianhai Securities China Smartphones How the supply chain can beat the sales slowdown,9 May 2018 China Media A Hollywood moment for Chinas film-makers,18 May 2018 China Custom Furniture Initiate coverage:New floor plans the rise of Chinas custom-made furniture industry,31 May 2018 China Healthcare In sickness and in healthour prognosis for the sector to 2030,29 June 2018 China Media&Internet Big data,new values,future trends,19 July 2018 China Semiconductors Narrowing the gap:Chinas great chip challenge,6 September 2018 China Healthcare Services A strong dose of the right private medicine,2 October 2018 China Baijiu A toast to the national drink,19 October 2018 China Polyester Ironing out the wrinkles:the race to span the industrys whole value chain,29 October 2018 China Engineering&Construction Initiate coverage:Building up to a sector re-rating,9 November 2018 China Software Cybersecurity revolution in the cloud era,26 November 2018 China Media&Internet If content is king,IP rights are the crown jewels,30 November 2018 China Software Fintech investment to surge in a new era of tougher regulation,14 January 2019 China Polyester Turning point,Chinese giants enter a new era,24 January 2019 MULTI-ASSET CHINA January 2019 8 New challenges,new solutions 2018 turned out to be a challenging year for the Chinese economy.The escalation of the trade war hurt sentiment and brought much uncertainty for businesses.Financial deleveraging has by and large continued despite marginal relaxation in regulations.As a result,broad credit growth continued to ease to a record-low of 9.8%y-o-y in December 2018,down from an average of 14.4%in 2017.Both the domestic and external headwinds are likely to persist in 2019.Containing the overall macroeconomic impact while maintaining the economys structural adjustment to a more innovation-driven economy will be the biggest policy challenge.We look at five major themes for 2019:1)Beijing shifting to tax cuts as a policy tool to cushion growth top of the list is a VAT cut for corporates;2)more supportive credit policies for private-sector businesses to mitigate the negative spill-over effect of de-leveraging;3)infrastructure investment rebounding modestly as funding and approval improves;4)housing investment softening as demand eases,offsetting some of the incremental gain from infrastructure investment rebound;and 5)SOE and industrial policy reforms accelerating along the lines of competitive neutrality.1.An emerging consensus for corporate tax cut to support growth.We estimate the upcoming VAT cut could amount to 0.9-1.6%of 2019e GDP(see Chinas tax cut,14 November 2018).Beijing has also pledged to reduce social security taxes.This tax relief should help lift profits and business sentiment.2.Targeted credit easing for private sector businesses.To correct the over-tightening of credit conditions,we expect Beijing to work harder to support businesses in the private sector.Policies such as targeted liquidity provision,credit risk mitigation,a soft target on loan quotas and regulatory incentives will likely intensify and put a floor under private-sector credit supply.Combined with the tax cut,this should reinforce the ongoing recovery in private business investment.Qu Hongbin Co-head Asian Economics Research,Chief China Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 2025 Julia Wang Economist,Greater China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 3604 3663 Ma Xiaoping Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +8610 5999 8232 Jingyang Chen Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2996 6558 Aakanksha Bhat Economist,Asia The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 4297 Madhurima Nag Associate Bangalore Economics:2019 outlook five key macro trends Beijing is set to cut corporate taxes and selectively ease credit for the private sector Infrastructure will likely rebound modestly,while the housing market continues to soften Concrete steps forward on SOE ref