汇丰银行-全球-投资策略-全球固定收益资产配置策略-2019.2.12-32页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comGloballiquidity,inparticulartheFed’sbalancesheet,willbethebigfocusinthecomingmonths……andbecausethisdecisionisrequiredbeforewecanhaveclarityonthedirectionofrates…...weremainneutraldurationinallthemajorgovernmentbondmarketsandcautiousoncreditThedisconnectbetweencreditandratesPage4Likewatergainingmomentumasitgoesdownaplughole,QTmayhaveanexponentialimpact.Creditmarketsdonotappeartoagreeandhavedecidedthereismoreliquiditycoming.Meanwhileratesmarketssuggestitistooearlytosay.Atbest,theremightbeanendtotheUSQTaheadofwhatmaypreviouslyhavebeenexpected.Atworst,thecreditmarketsmayhavegotitcompletelywrong.DurationcallsteadfastlyatneutralPage7It’sboringonthesurface,butwearecomingatthisfromthecontextofbeingbullishratesforalongtime.UntilwehaveabetterideawhattheFedisdoingwithitsbalancesheet,andhenceclarityonthedirectionofrates,itisprematuretoreturntoabullishdurationstance.Thissaid,therecentmoveshavepromptedustoreduceourend-2019Bundyieldforecastto20bp,from50bppreviously.Findingvalueinfront-endlinkersandEurospreadproductsPage8Whilewearekeepingoutrightdurationexposurelow,depressedvaluationsinshort-datedUSandEurolinkerspresentanattractiveopportunitytoaddinflationexposure.Meanwhile,weturnmoreconstructiveonEURSSAsandcoveredbondswhichshouldbenefitfromaresurgenceofthehuntforyieldamidrecedingsupplypressure.StillcautiousoncreditandUSDSSAsPage15WearenotconvincedthattherecentrallyincreditcancontinueandsowestickwithourmildlybearishbiasonUSDandEURIG.Itmaybedifficulttopinpointthecatalysttohalttherally,buttherearenumerouscandidates.WearealsogoingagainstthegraininUSDSSAs:thepositivesupplyoutlookisalreadyintheprice.ESGiscomingtotheforein2019Page17Wehavecreatedamodel,usingenvironmental,socialandgovernancemeasurestoscore77sovereigns.Somewhatcounterintuit...