汇丰银行-全球-汽车行业-全球电动汽车价值链：ESG风险-2019.1.28-21页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCSecurities(USA)IncViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)EVsandbatterystoragewillbeessentialcomponentsineffortstorevampenergysystemsandmitigateclimatechangeHSBCestimatespurebatteryEVpenetrationof15%in2030–growthdependsoncarefulmanagementofwater,humanrights,andrecyclingWeexaminewateruseinthesaltflats,cobaltintheCongo,andconsumerdemandGoingfullcircleontheEVsupplychainHSBC’sGlobalAutos,Battery,EnergyStorage,Materials,andESGteamscollaboratedtocreateaniterativemodelthattakesintoaccountallaspectsoftheelectricvehicle(EV)valuechain:EVpenetration,subsidies,batterychemistries,andthesupplyanddemanddynamicsforlithium,cobalt,andmanganese.InGlobalEVBatteryMaterials(2December2018)weestimatedthat:highlithiumandcobaltpricesfavorhybridsoverpurebatteryEVsintheshorttomediumterm;fullbatteryEVpenetrationin2030wouldbe15%tomeetregulatorymandates;andthebatterypriceperkWhshouldcomedownbelowUSD100inthecomingyears.Wealsoexpectthatbatteriescomposedoflesscobalt(NCM811–nickelcobaltmanganese)willreach20%penetrationby2025.ClimateisthecatalystGiventhattransportaccountsforonequarterofglobalemissions,webelievethatelectricvehiclesandbatterystoragewillbeessentialcomponentsofcountries’attemptstoreducetheircarbonemissions(seeThesecondfrontier:Whythetransportsectorisnextintacklingclimatechange,15January2019)PolicypushesEVsalesGovernmentsaroundtheworldareaggressivelypushingtheadoptionofEVsthroughregulationsthatstipulatetoughemissionsnormsand/orcredittargetsthataretiedtoEVproduction.WebelievetheseregulationswillplayanimportantroleindrivingEVsalesaspenaltiesfornon-compliancewillforcetheautooriginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)toshifttoEVproduction.ConsumerattitudestowardsEVsdiffersig...