汇丰银行-全球-汽车行业-全球电动汽车价值链：ESG风险-2019.1.28-21页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Securities(USA)Inc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA(THE PRC)(EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO)EVs and battery storage will be essential components in efforts to revamp energy systems and mitigate climate change HSBC estimates pure battery EV penetration of 15%in 2030 growth depends on careful management of water,human rights,and recycling We examine water use in the salt flats,cobalt in the Congo,and consumer demand Going full circle on the EV supply chain HSBCs Global Autos,Battery,Energy Storage,Materials,and ESG teams collaborated to create an iterative model that takes into account all aspects of the electric vehicle(EV)value chain:EV penetration,subsidies,battery chemistries,and the supply and demand dynamics for lithium,cobalt,and manganese.In Global EV Battery Materials(2 December 2018)we estimated that:high lithium and cobalt prices favor hybrids over pure battery EVs in the short to medium term;full battery EV penetration in 2030 would be 15%to meet regulatory mandates;and the battery price per kWh should come down below USD100 in the coming years.We also expect that batteries composed of less cobalt(NCM811 nickel cobalt manganese)will reach 20%penetration by 2025.Climate is the catalyst Given that transport accounts for one quarter of global emissions,we believe that electric vehicles and battery storage will be essential components of countries attempts to reduce their carbon emissions(see The second frontier:Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change,15 January 2019)Policy pushes EV sales Governments around the world are aggressively pushing the adoption of EVs through regulations that stipulate tough emissions norms and/or credit targets that are tied to EV production.We believe these regulations will play an important role in driving EV sales as penalties for non-compliance will force the auto original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)to shift to EV production.Consumer attitudes towards EVs differ significantly depending on the country.We surveyed consumers in the US,China and UK and found a gender imbalance in EV appeal,confidence in Chinas edge on EVs,and price sensitivity among potential buyers.Lithium and cobalt:primary materials and primary risk Lithium and cobalt are the key components of the EV battery.The largest lithium deposit in the world is lithium brine(water)from the worlds driest desert in the Salar de Atacama in Chile and Argentina.Two-thirds of cobalt supply is in the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC)where artisanal(small-scale,largely unregulated)mining is common.Battery technology is still evolving It is difficult to standardize recycling because batteries use a variety of formulations.We examine companies approaches to end-of-life.28 January 2019 Tessie Petion Head of ESG Research,Americas HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 4866 Wai-Shin Chan,CFA Head,Climate Change Centre of Excellence The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2822 4870 Alexandre Falcao Global Ag/EV Materials&LatAm Industrials Analyst HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 4449 Augusto Ensiki LatAm Industrials,Agri,Healthcare and Education HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 4915 Ashim Paun Director,Climate Change Strategy HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 3591 Jonathan Brandt,CFA Sr Analyst,LatAm Metals&Mining,Pulp&Paper HSBC Securities(USA)I+1 212 525 4499 Global EV Value Chain CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL The ESG risks 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 28 January 2019 2 Global EV materials value chain Source:HSBCEV battery value chainLithium:SQM,Albemarle,Livent,Galaxy,Ganfeng,Tianqi,Orocobre,Lithium AmericasCobalt:Glencore,ChinaMolybdenum,Vale,Norilsk,FleuretteCopper:Anglo,Kaz,Rio Tinto,Codelco,Freeport,BHP,Glencore,Antofagasta,Southern CopperManganese:Anglo,BHP,Eramet,Consolidated Minerals,Vale,South32Graphite:Triton Minerals,SyrahResources,Mason GraphiteNickel:Anglo,Glencore,Vale,Norilsk,BHP,Sumitomo MiningAluminium:Rusal,Chalco,RioTinto,Alcoa,China HongqiaoGroupRaw materialsProcessed materials andsub componentsEnd-userUSD86bnUSD50bnUSD86bnUSD47bnUSD74bnUSD38bn2016Mining companies2025e20162025e20162025eLiCoCuMnGrNiAlComponent manufacturesLG Chem,Samsung SDI,Panasonic,CATL,BYD,AESC,SKICellL&F,LG Chem,Ningbo Shanshan,Xiamen Tungsten,BeijingEaspring,Nichia Chem,UmicoreCathodePOSCO,Ningbo Shanshan,BTRNew Energy,Jiangxi ZiChen,Hitachi Chem,Mitsubishi ChemAnodePanax Etec,LG Chem,CapchemTech,Ningbo Shanshan,MitsubishiChem,Ube IndustriesElectrolyteSKI,LG Chem,Shenzhen Senior,Xinxiang Green,Jinhui Hi-Tech,Asahi KaseiSeparatorAuto technologyTesla,VW,BYD,BMW,Geely,Nissan,Toyota,Mercedez,GM,Ford,Kia,Hyundai,ZD,JACAutomotiveApple,Samsung,Dell,HP,Lenovo,Toshiba,Huawei,ElectronicsCAT,Komatsu,Volvo,Sany,HitachiIndustrial6%6%7%CAGRCAGRCAGR 3 CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 28 January 2019 An ESG view on the value chain Mandates to meet climate goals The 2015 Paris Agreement focused the world on a target of keeping warming below 2C by 2100.Current global climate policies are not enough to meet this target,and we are already seeing the effects of climate change in rising temperatures,altered water cycles,and extreme weather events.Given that transport accounts for one quarter of global emissions,we believe that electric vehicles and battery storage will be essential components of countries attempts to reduce their carbon emissions(see our report The second frontier:Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change,15 January 2019)Advances in battery technology are improving range and reducing cost,ultimately allowing electricity to replace oil as the energy feedstock for light vehicles.In addition,battery storage for use at the utility-scale will enable more widespread use of intermittent renewables.Policy push to gear up EV sales;15%full EVs in 2030 to comply with regulations Governments around the world are aggressively pushing the adoption of EVs through regulations that stipulate tough emissions norms and/or credit targets that are tied to EV production.We believe these regulations will play an important role in driving EV sales as tough penalties for non-compliance will force the auto original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)to shift to EV production.Among the countries/regions,Europe,China,and US states(e.g.California)are most prominent in terms of policy frameworks incentivizing the adoption of EVs.Ultimately,it is a trade-off for the OEMs between optimizing conventional internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles at increasing costs and selling more zero-emission battery electric vehicles(BEV)at a loss.The costs for improving CO emissions from a conventional ICE vehicle do not rise linearly,but instead exponentially as more technologies have been rolled out,the effort required to reduce emissions further is greater with every incremental gram saved.At some point,the cost to further optimize becomes so high that it is cheaper to substitute BEVs into the sales mix and spread the higher costs for those BEVs over all vehicles sold.HSBCs proprietary powertrain forecast identifies MHEVs(mid-hybrid electric vehicles with 48V technology)and BEVs(battery electric vehicles without combustion engine),but also PHEV(plug-in-hybrid EVs with a combustion engine)as winners.With the highest growth rates until 2030e,we forecast these three segments to account for almost 50%of global new car sales in 2030e(with full EVs at 15%),compared to c3%today.Climate and EV demand Mandates are rapidly increasing demand for EVs Limited consumer demand poses potential challenges Differing attitudes to EVs:gender gap in the US,environmental appeal in China,and consumers unwilling to pay much of a premium in the UK Governments bringing customers to the table CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 28 January 2019 4 Sales are rising The sales of EVs are increasing dramatically,but from a low base.In 2018,we estimate c1.4m BEVs were sold with more than half of global sales in China.While many countries(India,France,the UK,Norway,and China)have incentives in place to phase out ICE vehicles,the US Environmental Protection Agency has concluded that vehicle emissions rules are too aggressive(see US continues to roll back federal climate policies,3 April 2018).As a result,Norway(with incentives of up to cEUR25,000)is the worlds most advanced market for electric car sales,BEVs accounted for 31.2%of all car sales in Norway in 2018,up from 20.8%in 2017.In comparison,electric cars account for 1.2%of the car market in the US.Global BEV sales by manufacturer(2017)Source:ICCT,HSBC In our view,the primary limitations are pricing,marketing,range anxiety,and charging time.In HSBCs US Holiday Deluxe,we surveyed 2,000 wealthy US consumers on their attitudes towards electric vehicles.See ESG and luxury consumers,3 December 2018.While 2,000 respondents is not enough to form a representative view of the entire population,the results do support trends we see developing.In the US,electrics are a small part of the market.Tesla(TSLA US,USD291.51,not covered),the largest automaker by market cap in the US,has successfully marketed its models as a premium product.The Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling EV in the US in 2018 and sold four times as many models as the number two,Toyota Prius Prime.Our survey found that nearly 60%of customers said they were likely to purchase an electric vehicle.1,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Electric vehicles20102011201220132014201520162017BYDBAICGeelySAICCheryZotyeJianglingJACChanganTeslaGeneral MotorsFordBMWVolkswagenRenaultMercedesHyundai-KiaToyotaNissanMitsubishiOthers1.5%1.0%0.5%0%Global penetration 5 CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 28 January 2019 Were you to purchase a vehicle,how much more likely would you be to purchase an electric vehicle?Source:HSBC,Toluna Gender imbalance in electric vehicle appeal While the majority of respondents said that they were likely to purchase an electric vehicle,the number was heavily skewed by gender:73%of men vs 50%of women.In comparison,there is a 50/50 ratio of male to female buyers in the rest of the auto industry.This information is consistent with data from Californias Clean Vehicle Rebate Project and reports from industry advisers that find that many more men are purchasing plug-in electric vehicles.This suggests that electric vehicle manufacturers have succeeded in casting the electric vehicle as aspirational,but its message clearly leaves some women cold.This has implications for companies given that it limits the potential market for electric vehicles.Chinas electric vehicle market is more robust than the US.According to Bloomberg NEF,in 2018 electric vehicles accounted for approximately 2%of passenger car sales(vs.1%globally).The government has incentivized purchases of NEVs and several cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Tianjin,Hangzhou,and Guangzhou)have implemented license plate restrictions for ICE cars.See China Autos:Here comes the cavalry,9 January 2019.In the 2018 China Deluxe:Anatomy of the future luxury consumer(7 March 2018)survey we surveyed 2,000 wealthy Chinese consumers across the country around Chinese New Year(from 16 to 25 February 2018)about their aspirations.The survey focused mainly on millennials aged 18-34(75%of results)as they are the generation most likely to be employed and driving luxury consumption for the next few years.Our respondents were 60%female as we believe the future is female for premium consumption.We also focused on wealthier consumers with annual income exceeding RMB150,000(i.e.USD24,000).More respondents than not felt the Chinese car makers have an edge over foreign brands when it comes to EV.With Chinas aggressive push towards New Energy Vehicles(NEVs,which include hybrids as well as BEVs)and electrification,this is not a surprising conclusion.The fact that Chinese respondents felt that the main attraction of buying an EV was the environmental aspect,rather than the subsidies and benefits instituted by the government,was heartening.We believe China is still very serious about improving its environmental record,building an ecological civilization,and realizing a“Beautiful China”.31%29%9%16%15%Very likelySomewhat likelyNot relevantSomewhat unlikelyVery unlikelyEV marketing geared towards men CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 28 January 2019 6 Do you think Chinese car makers have an edge over foreign brands when it comes to electric vehicles?Source:HSBC,Toluna What would be your main reason to buy an electric vehicle?Source:HSBC,Toluna Weve also asked consumers about electric vehicles in our UK surveys.For UK:Anatomy of the consumer 2019(16 January 2019),we conducted a survey of c2,000 UK consumers.Survey respondents included a representative cross-section of gender,age,and income.In contrast to our US and China surveys,this survey did not focus on luxury consumers.16.4%of respondents reported they would purchase an EV,compared with 15.5%of respondents in November 2017.An increased share of respondents reported that they did not know what they would opt for in their next vehicle(21.7%in December 2018,compared to 17.1%).Perhaps this suggests consumers are aware of a car market in transition.31%53%16%YesMaybeNo8%17%21%54%SubsidiesNo city driving restrictionsDriving pleasureEnvironmentally friendlyDriving with their feet 7 CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 28 January 2019 If you were to buy a new car what would you prefer it be powered by.?How much of a premium would you pay for an electric/hybrid car at point of purchase?Source:HSBC,Toluna Source:HSBC,Toluna However,it is important distinguish between intent and reality in these surveys.YTD,5.95%of new vehicle registrations in the UK were for electric or hybrid vehicles,far lower than these survey results imply they should be(Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders).Indeed,when asked what premiums consumers would pay,we begin to understand.Over half of our survey respondents would only pay a maximum GBP1,000 premium for an electric or hybrid at point of purchase,with over half of that share reporting that they would not pay any premium at all.Despite a number of national incentive schemes by governments around the world,EV and hybrid vehicles remain a costly upfront purchase for most consumers.In addition,EV charging infrastructure is incomplete.Few countries have built out their charging infrastructure.Norway is providing funding for fast charging stations every 50km on main roads.China has subsidies and a tax exemption for the installation of charging stations and other ancillary facilities.According to the IEA,117,000 publicly accessible electric car chargers were installed globally in 2017,10%fewer than in 2016,at a total cost of about USD3bn.