汇丰银行-全球-能源设备与服务行业-全球离岸油服：油价上涨+订单激增=好日子？-2019.5.8-27页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Oil+25%YTD,orderwaveandfirsttalkofbetterpricing–butwedon’tthinkfundamentalshavechangedmuchinQ1Leftfielddevelopments-Saipemshiftsstanceondrillingassets,FTI’sshalehiccup,Anadarko’suncertainfutureMaintainBuyTechnipFMC(TPnowUSD28/EUR25),HoldSaipem(TPEUR4.8),HoldSubsea7(TPNOK100)Orderintakestrongand2019revenuecoveragehigh–Q1averagecompanyB2Bwasaround1.5xandcoverageof2019revenueestimatesfromcurrentbacklogisnowaround85%.Weseequarterlyfinancialsfortherestof2019drivenbyprojectexecutionandcontractawardsoverQ2-Q4drivingsentimentin2020-21estimates.Somearestickingtheirnecksoutonpricingwhilstotherstalkaboutdeepwaterrecoveryin‘2020andbeyond…’–theinevitablerangeofcompanyoutlookmessagingsawthefirstexplicitpositivecommentonoffshorepricingtrendsfromSubsea7.ThiswassomewhatbalancedoutbySchlumbergerandSaipemwhopointedtotherecoverytakingamoresubstantivestepforwardin2020.OurmacrooffshoreviewholdsatUSD70oil–wereiterateourviewofaweakerlinkbetweenoilpricesandoffshorefundamentalsthiscycle;howeversharesarereactivetocrudevolatility,exposingthemtodownsideriskifoilweakens.UnlikeUSunconventionals,wedonotbelievelong-cycledinvestmentmateriallychangesonshort-termoilpricemovements(withinreason).Weviewoffshoreascompetingwithshort-cycledoptionsatagivenoilpriceandseeoperatorcapitalconstraintholding.Abusyquarterfor‘read-across’anddevelopmentsoutsideoffshoreOFS…Recentweekshaveseeni)theimpactsfromtheUSpressurepumpingmarketspilloverintoFTI’sresults,ii)thetugofwaroverAnadarkoraiseuncertaintiesovertheprospectsforitsflagshipLNGprojectandiii)SPMsteerthemarkettowardstheideathatitsoffshoredrillingrigsmaybeheretostaylongerthanpeoplethought.West...