汇丰银行-全球-环境保护行业-脆弱的地球：低碳转型的政治和经济-2019.4-70页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Play interview withAshim PaunBy:Ashim Paun,Lucy Acton,Amit Shrivastava,James Pomeroy and Tarek SolimanApril 2019GlobalClimate ChangeFragile PlanetThe politics and economicsof the low-carbon transitionAs the world strives to cut greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warmingWe rank 67 countries with the policies,institutions and economic potential to decarboniseWe present the Climate Leaders Group of Seven Nations(the C-7),headed by Germany and Sweden,and also the EM-Leaders,including China 1 Climate Change Global April 2019 Figure 1.Source:HSBCHSBC 2019 C-7(Climate Seven Group of Countries)+top 3 EM countries1stGermany 36%emissions decline since1979 peak 1st place for policy outlook and2nd for potential to respond 2nd place for greenopportunities7thUnited Kingdom Accelerated emissions declinesover the past decade 75%reduction in coal use inprimary energy mix between2012 and 2017 Long term aim of at least 80%emissions reduction by 2050(vs 1990)2ndSweden Over 60%of primary energymix clean Targeting zero net emissionsby 2045 Lowest emissions pc of C7Group6thUnited States Recent growth in use ofrenewables Non-state actors pushingforward with climate plans 3rd place for green opportunities4thFrance 2nd lowest emissions pc of C7Group Nuclear 48%of primary energymix Long term target of carbonneutrality by 20503rdAustria Hydro power 25%of primaryenergy mix Strong policy outlook andpotential to respond 5th place for greenopportunities5thDenmark 47%fall in emissions since1996 peak High use of renewables andnatural gasEM 2ndEM 3rdCzech Republic(13thoverall)Declining emissions followingeconomic reform Policies to further improveenergy efficiency Highest ranking EM state onclimate policy supportEM 1stKorea(15thoverall)Highest ranking EM state forpotential to respond High share of nuclear in primaryenergy mix Innovative economy alignedwith future green opportunitiesChina(14thoverall)1st place for green opportunities Pledge to reach peak emissionsaround 2030 Targeted 60-65%fall in carbonintensity of GDP by 2030(vs2005)Significant energy efficiencyimprovements since 1970s Climate Change Global April 2019 2 Executive Summary 3 Energy,carbon and the macro economy 8 Carbon intensity 9 Fossil fuel dependence 11 Policy and institutions 21 Potential to respond to climate risks 22 Decarbonisation policy outlook 24 Climate opportunities 31 Climate change revenues 32 Green Complexity Potential 34 Final rankings 38 Tear sheets/country profiles 40 1.Germany 41 2.Sweden 43 3.Austria 45 4.France 47 5.Denmark 49 6.United States 51 7.United Kingdom 53 EM-1.Czech Republic(13 overall)55 EM-2.China(14 overall)57 EM-3.Korea(15 overall)59 Related reports 61 Appendix 62 Disclosure appendix 66 Disclaimer 68 Contents We acknowledge the contribution of Abhishek Kumar,Climate Change Analyst,Bangalore,in the preparation of this report 3 Climate Change Global April 2019 The 2015 Paris Agreement has focussed global attention on the need for countries to address climate change risks.But not all countries are equal,in terms of either their ambition or ability to achieve economies which are low-carbon and aligned with greenhouse gas emissions trajectories which scientists say are necessary to limit warming to 2C,the most widely-adopted maximum warming target for 2100.The associated transition in national energy systems and broader economies to a low-carbon world will present risks,but also opportunities.This report is the latest in our Fragile Planet series1,and a collaboration between our analysts from across climate change,economics and equities.In our first main report,Fragile Planet Scoring climate risks around the world,19 March 2018 we set out a broad framework for understanding national level climate vulnerability,with metrics covering physical risks,socio-economic impacts,energy transition indicators and the potential of countries to respond to climate risks.We followed this with Fragile planet Commodities:From climate risks to agriculture,July 2018,in which we developed a method for analysing risks to agro-commodities,commodity markets and national economies dependent on agriculture.We start this report with a question:Which countries have the political economy the policy,government and institutions,economic diversity and energy resources to give them a competitive advantage as the world progresses with a low-carbon transition?We answer this question through analysis of 67 countries in the MSCI developed,emerging and frontier market categories2,covering 80%of the worlds population and 94%of GDP.Our overall rankings are as per Table 23.We conclude this report with tear-sheets for each of the seven countries which are best placed for the low-carbon transition we call these the HSBC Climate-Seven Group of Countries or C-7,led by Germany.European states dominate the higher rankings,with the US in 6th,and MENA and other hydrocarbon economies prevalent at the bottom of the table.Figure 1 shows which countries form the C-7,and also the three best-placed EM states in our analysis.These tear-sheets include details on the seven countries energy systems,economic structure and emissions trajectory,as well as tables of policies designed to lower carbon.These leading countries underly the stocks identified in Fragile Planet-Opportunities across 10 leading climate nations,10 April 2019 here,we use our proprietary Climate Solutions Database to pull together screens of companies which generate at least 10%revenue from climate themes4._ 1 see page 7 for full list 2 Our analysis of MSCI developed,emerging and frontier market categories excludes Hong Kong and Taiwan.3 Scores are given to indicators between 1 and 10,according to positioning amongst the 67 countries,and then aggregated as per weightings to arrive at a final score.4 NB in Fragile Planet-Opportunities across 10 leading climate nations,10 April 2019,we create a screen for India instead of the Czech Republic although India came through much lower in our rankings,it is the highest placed EM with over two companies in our Climate Solutions Database(it has eight),while there is only one Czech company in our database Executive Summary The world faces climate risks and must decarbonise Some countries are better equipped,politically and economically Our multi-factor analysis of 67 countries identifies the global leaders across developed and emerging markets Paris Agreement creates risks for countries,but also opportunities An evolving series of frameworks for climate analysis Identifying the leaders Climate Change Global April 2019 4 Our findings are based on an analysis of the following five areas,as per Figure 2,incorporating 29 indicators(captured in Table 1).Energy,carbon and the macro economy 1.Carbon intensity:How embedded are fossil fuels?We measure the carbon intensity of a country per its domestic economic activity and per capita levels,as well as the extent to which it is moving towards clean energy.2.Fossil fuel dependence:To what extent is a countrys economy dependent on fossil fuels?Here,we look at shares of GDP and exports coming from fossil fuel based activity and how these shares have changed over time.We also factor in oil and gas reserve sizes and average lifecycle production costs,acknowledging that low-cost producers are more likely to generate potential in a 2C-aligned world,given fossil fuels will still be used in harder-to-decarbonise sectors,such as shipping,aviation and petrochemicals.Policy and institutional quality 1.Potential to respond to climate risks:We consider financial resources and institutional quality metrics which we believe can guide how prudently a country may use its wealth in relation to its long-term sustainable development,including mitigation of climate change.2.Decarbonisation policy outlook:Next,we look forward in an attempt to understand how countries are placed to address climate change.To understand this,first we consider pledges made towards achieving Paris Agreement goals.We also score for any longer-term emissions reduction pledges as well as the existence of carbon pricing policies.Third,we also include a World Bank metric relating to government effectiveness.Figure 2:The political economy of the low-carbon transition key factors Source:HSBCCLIMATEOPPORTUNITIESPOLICY&INSTITUTIONSENERGYCARBONANDTHEMACROECONOMYCarbonintensity15%Decarbonisationpolicy outlook15%Potential torespond15%Corporate climaterevenues and clean-techrelevant industries35%Fossil fueldependence20%5 Climate Change Global April 2019 Climate opportunities 1.Corporate climate revenues and clean-tech relevant industries:Our fifth category for understanding country-level risk exposure to the low-carbon transition considers the opportunity set.Those countries which can sell the products and technologies which will drive the low-carbon transition will be more resilient as they generate associated revenues,in our opinion.Here,we begin by analysing a large data set from HSBCs Climate Solutions Database.This database records corporate revenues against 21 headline climate themes,across areas including low-carbon energy,transport and buildings efficiency,water and battery storage.We look at how much climate-related revenue is being earned by companies incorporated in each of the countries in our study.Finally,looking forward,we consider Green Complexity Potential-a metric from the University of Oxford Institute for New Economic Thinking.This considers path dependency of industrial development enabling us to build in a consideration of which countries are more likely to be able to make the products the world needs for the low-carbon transition,given what they produce today.The following three sections of this report cover each of these headline areas in turn.Table 1 captures the full range of indicators we look at in seeking to understand the political economy of the low-carbon transition.Decisions around appropriate weightings followed discussions amongst the authors at the HSBC Climate Change Centre of Excellence.We believe it is important for investors to understand which countries are best-placed for the low-carbon transition.The economic outlook over the next few years may create challenges in terms of climate transition.Our economics team expects global growth to continue to be just shy of 3%per year over the next decade with much of this growth(70%)to come from the emerging world.These parts of the world are getting steadily wealthier,causing changes in individuals consumption patterns:more towards car ownership,air travel and energy consumption more broadly.Across the emerging world we expect millions of people to move to cities over the next decade and even more to rise to middle class status.As the world addresses climate change risks-decarbonising and reducing use of fossil fuels-we think some countries will have a competitive advantage This growth will likely increase global trade volumes at a steady basis,with more trade taking place between emerging markets.For all of the concerns surrounding trade protectionism in recent years,many parts of the world have been signing multilateral trade agreements which will help to lift trade flows.Unless trade policy turns even more protectionist,global trade volumes should keep increasing.This continued expansion in energy demand,consumption and urban populations means that the need to transition to a lower-carbon energy mix will only get more pressing.And as the world addresses climate change risks by decarbonising human activities and reducing use of fossil fuels,we think some countries will have a competitive advantage.We believe those with the policies,institutional quality,economic diversity and low-cost energy resources,will have lower cost burdens in achieving 2C-aligned economies and enjoy revenue benefits associated with driving the world down this pathway.Trade still rising Climate Change Global April 2019 6 Table 1:Political economy of the low-carbon transition Indicators Weight Section weight Data source Energy,carbon and the macro economy Carbon intensity 15 1.Share of alternative energy 20 World Bank 2.Change in alternative energy 10 3.Emissions*per capita 20 PRIMAP,World Bank 4.Change in emissions*per capita 10 5.Emissions*per GDP 20 PRIMAP,World Bank 6.Change in emissions*per GDP 10 7.Other GHG emissions,including LULUCF per capita 10 PRIMAP,World Bank TOTAL 100 Fossil fuel dependence 20 8.Fossil revenue as a share of GDP 30 World Bank 9.Change in fossil revenue 10 10.Share of fossils in exports 30 World Bank 11.Change in fossils in exports 10 12.Fossil reserves to breakeven ratio(R/B 2030)20 Rystad Energy TOTAL 100 Policy&Institutional quality Decarbonisation policy outlook 15 13.Emissions reduction policy 70 UNFCCC 14.Government effectiveness 30 World Bank TOTAL 100 Potential to respond 15 15.GDP per capita 15 World Bank 16.Public debt burden(%GDP)15 World Bank 17.Sovereign Wealth Fund(SWF)per capita 5 SWF Institute 18.Equity risk premium 15 NYU 19.Income inequality(GINI)12.5 World Bank 20.Tertiary education enrolment 12.5 UNESCO 21.Control of corruption 12.5 World Bank 22.Rule of law 12.5 World Bank TOTAL 100 Climate opportunities Corporate climate revenues and clean-tech relevant industries 35 Climate revenues:HSBC 23.Absolute level 10 24.Relative to GDP 10 25.Change in absolute level 10 26.Change in level relative to GDP 10 27.Momentum of absolute revenues 10 28.Momentum of revenues relative to GDP 10 29.Green Complexity Potential 40 University of Oxford INET TOTAL 100 OVERALL TOTAL 100 Source:HSBC.*These emissions are ex LULUCF.Note:Carbon intensity includes other greenhouse gases.7 Climate Change Global April 2019 Table 2:Which countries have the political economy to navigate the low-carbon transition?(Rank 1 is best placed)_ Country rankings _ Rank Country Markets Overall score Carbon intensity Fossil fuel dependence Policy outlook Potential to respond Economic opportunity Weight 15%20%15%15%35%1 Germany DM 7.5 26 18 1 12 2 2 Sweden DM 7.4 7 39 7 6 4 3 Austria DM 7.2 12 32 10 11 5 4 France DM 7.2 1 20 2 24 10 5 Denmark DM 7.0 9 46 8 4 12 6 United States DM 7.0 22 20 14 19 3 7 United Kingdom DM 6.7 6 24 11 22 14 8 Spain DM 6.7 3 27 19 32 9 9 Switzerland DM 6.6 2 53 3 8 21 10 Portugal DM 6.5 17 33 15 35 7 11 Finland DM 6.5 14 35 5 5 26 12 Italy DM 6.5 10 13 20 44 8 13 Czech Republic EM 6.5 11 44 12 15 13 14 China EM 6.4 45 5 34 43 1 15 Korea EM 6.3 44 12 30 9 11 16 New Zealand DM 6.3 23 28 13 2 32 17 Canada DM 6.3 29 25 9 14 25 18 Netherlands DM 6.1 34 43 6 7 29 19 Japan DM 5.9 49 9 21 28 17 20 Norway DM 5.9 14 58 4 1 47 21 Ireland DM 5.8 20 52 16 10 34 22 Turkey EM 5.8 21 17 55 42 6 23 Singapore DM 5.7 60 29 24 16 15 24 Belgium DM 5.7 19 48 17 17 36 25 Hungary EM 5.6 13 41 29 36 18 26 Greece EM 5.6 18 26 22 47 24 27 Poland EM 5.5 37 36 27 27 19 28 Croatia FM 5.