汇丰银行-全球-房地产行业-全球房地产业：灵活的共享空间尚处于起步阶段-2019.7.10-47页 (2).pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ In the past decade the number of flexible/coworking spaces has grown by 3,500%,and employee utilisation by 8,000%Even so,flexible/coworking space still represents less than 10%of the office stock in all global markets DM real estate regions all underperformed their broader local markets last month barring Singapore.Global RE returned+17.1%y-t-d to end-June The Flexible Workspace Revolution Over the past decade the number of flexible office spaces in the world has grown by 3,500%(Knight Frank-(Y)our Space Report,August 2018),while the number of people working there increased by 8,000%.According to the same data,at least 18,000 such spaces exist around the world and they are able to accommodate at least 1.7m people(source:Knight Frank).In late 2018,Knight Frank published a report having surveyed senior executives from 120 global companies collectively employing 3.5m people and occupying 233m sqft of office space(equivalent to Londons entire office stock).The report concluded that:69%of global corporates plan to increase utilisation of flexible/coworking space over the next three years 44%believe flexible workspace will comprise up to one-fifth of all corporate workspace 75%aim to boost employee happiness and productivity through utilisation of business space In this edition of our Global Real Estate Compass(GREC)we highlight a report published last month by HSBCs Asia real estate team,Why hot desks are such hot property,June 2019),provide an A to Z of the global flexible/coworking office landscape,and reference those companies within our global coverage universe that have established their own flexible workspace offers.DM Real Estate all underperformed last month barring Singapore All Developed Market(DM)real estate geographies underperformed last month relative to their local markets,barring Singapore.Even so,only C.Europe and Japan recorded negative(absolute)total returns.EM Real Estate Brazil and Russia biggest gainers last month Brazil and Russia recorded the strongest absolute and relative performances last month.Mexico was the worst underperforming on both measures.MSCI Global Real Estate up 17.1%y-t-d(vs MSCI Global Equities up 17.4%)In the last 12 months,the MSCI Global Real Estate Index has returned 11.2%(vs MSCI Global Equities 7.4%).10 July 2019 Stephen Bramley-Jackson*Global Real Estate Analyst HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd stephen.bramley-+971 4 423 6903 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Global Real Estate Compass Equities Real Estate Global Flexible/Coworking space still in its infancy Equities Real Estate 10 July 2019 2 Key highlights APAC is the fastest growing region for flexible/coworking office space With APAC being the fastest growing region for flexible/coworking office space,HSBCs Asia Pacific Real Estate Team published an in-depth report last month,Asia Real Estate Coworking Why hot desks are such hot property,June 2019,in which the team took a regional approach by looking at the coworking markets in Hong Kong,leading cities in China,as well as Singapore(see page 3).An A to Z of Flexible/Coworking space In the past decade,the number of flexible office spaces globally has grown by 3,500%but still represents 10%of global office stock.With less than 5%of current US office inventory being controlled by independent,third-party flexible space providers,these are projected(by JLL)to encompass approximately 30%of the office market by 2030(see page 5).Performance and asset allocation The HSBC Economics team has recently further cut its global GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppt to 2.2%for 2020,the lowest growth forecast since 2009.The MSCI World Real Estate Index has now returned 17.1%y-t-d,placing it ninth out of 17 sectors in the MSCI global Index(see page 23).MSCI Global Real Estate total returns We benchmark total returns of regional developed,and emerging markets over the last 1m,3m,y-t-d and 12m periods(see page 25).Ratings and target prices changes to consensus We monitor changes in consensus ratings and target prices globally,for both developed and emerging market geographies(see page 27).HSBC Real Estate research global company coverage HSBC estimates benchmarked vs consensus,plus key valuation data/metrics/ratings and target prices for the HSBC Global Real Estate coverage universe(see page 29).Global Real Estate research reports of note last month Most notable reports published by the HSBC Global Real Estate team last month(see page 35).HSBC Global Real Estate research team the calendar The HSBC Global Real Estate Research Team calendar summarising marketing,NDRs and events over the next three months(see page 36).HSBC Global Economics latest quarterly forecasts We provide HSBC Economics latest forecasts(see page 37).3 Equities Real Estate 10 July 2019 In the past decade,the number of flexible office spaces globally has grown by 3,500%but still represents 50%(past 12m)Of the 10 largest global markets for flexible/coworking office space,six fall within the APAC region(Instant,2018)Introduction Complementary rather than disruptive With APAC being the fastest growing region for flexible/coworking office space,HSBCs Asia Pacific Real Estate Team published an in-depth report last month,Asia Real Estate Coworking Why hot desks are such hot property,June 2019,in which the team took a regional approach by looking at the coworking markets in Hong Kong,leading cities in China,as well as Singapore.They analysed how the coworking office market is likely to evolve in the respective markets over the next few years,explained why in their view the new phenomenon is complementary rather than disruptive to the traditional office market,and identified the likely winners within their coverage.Summary Points Asia Pacific Flexible workspace in Asia Pacific surged 150%during 2014-17 and the number of major flexi workplace operators has more than doubled in the region during the period,according to JLL.Greater China Three markets(Beijing,Shanghai and Hong Kong)and three operators(UCommune,Naked Hub(which merged with WeWork in April 2018),and WeWork)dominate Chinas coworking industry,jointly accounting for one-fifth of coworking office locations in these cities.The estimated number of Chinese(including Hong Kong)unicorns and start-ups,a major driver of coworking office demand,has grown 41-fold from two in 2013 to 93 in January 2019,according to CB Insights.China Coworking office turnover surged 87%y-o-y in 2018,significantly above the 42%y-o-y growth for the overall sharing economy turnover,according to the State Information Center.Domestic operators account for 79%of market share in coworking offices in tier-1 cities.Hong Kong More than 90%of the top 200 occupiers in Hong Kong are considering making flexible workspace part of their real estate strategy in 2017,according to Colliers.Hong Kong coworking office space is expensive versus other major cities in Asia Pacific.Average cost per desk reached USD1,100/month,representing 1.7x the average cost per desk in Singapore,1.9x for Beijing,3.4x for Shanghai and 2.2x that of Sydney.Flexible/Coworking space Michelle Kwok*Head of Real Estate Research,Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2996 6918 Raymond Liu*,CFA Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk+852 2996 6743 Pratik Ray*,CFA Senior Property Analyst,ASEAN The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branch .sg+65 6658 0611 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Equities Real Estate 10 July 2019 4 Singapore Singapore had 36 coworking operators operating out of 120 locations as of July 2018,almost twice the number of operators and locations from four years ago,representing c20%CAGR over this period on both counts.Coworking operators make up c20%of gross take-up in the office market in Singapores CBD,although operator occupancy remains less than 4%of total CBD office stock(2017:less than 2.5%),according to Colliers.Extract from Asia Real Estate Coworking Why hot desks are such hot property,June 2019 report The rise of the coworking segment in the office industry is a structural and longer-term trend that we think is here to stay.It satisfies the needs of corporates and start-ups looking for a self-contained workplace with more flexible lease terms than for traditional office space.Overall,we dont think coworking will be a major disruptive force.As mentioned earlier,it has complementary qualities such as helping tenants looking for more flexible lease terms.That said,well-established and large enterprises are likely to maintain their preference for traditional multi-year office leases which facilitate long-term planning.Even so,we note that some of these large corporates have allocated a small proportion of total leased GFA in the coworking segment in order to cater to business segments that require more flexible staff mobility.Over time,we expect the coworking market to consolidate,driven by mergers and acquisitions.We also think the penetration rate will continue to pick up steadily.The key to survival depends on innovation in services to enhance the stickiness of users,monetising the businesses apart from purely rental income,and being able to cater for the specific needs of different companies.For example,some coworking operators provide a wide range of wellness courses,including yoga,dance classes and body combat lessons.This enables members to achieve a more balanced style of work and,in turn,increase user stickiness.In summary,we believe coworking space is complementary to traditional office space,sharing a slice of the pie in the overall office leasing market.Against this backdrop,we believe it makes sense for developers to devote a portion of their resources to coworking.In the long run,coworking space will create synergies for real estate companies,drawing conventional office tenants to co-share common areas and facilities offered by the coworking operator on the same premises.Beneficiaries in the region The team believes Chinese developers are in a good position to compete with pure coworking office operators due to strong cash flows from their property development business and the presence of sizable investment property portfolios.Companies that look well positioned to benefit from this trend include:SOHO China(410 HK,Buy,TP HKD3.30),Shimao(813 HK,Hold,TP HKD23.90),COLI(688 HK,Buy,TP HKD40.00),Champion REIT(2778 HK,Hold,TP HKD6.90),Swire Properties(1972 HK,Buy HKD38.20),HongKong Land(HKL SP,Buy,TP USD7.90),Capitaland(CAPL SP,Buy TP SGD4.15),and Frasers Property(FPL SP,Buy,TP SGD2.25).Overall,we dont think coworking will be a major disruptive force We believe it makes sense for developers to devote a portion of their resources to coworking.In the long run 5 Equities Real Estate 10 July 2019 An explosive evolution,yet penetration levels are still very low Expansion from the flexible/coworking sector claimed more than a quarter of the total US office absorption over the past 24 months Below,we provide a summarised A to Z for the global flexible/coworking office space sector.As with many trends,the US market all too often is the launch pad for global innovation and provides sufficient transparency to assess innovative trends,and their potential for growth.Hence,according to JLL expansion from the flexible/coworking sector claimed more than a quarter(29.4%)of the total US office absorption over the past 24 months(18.1m s.f.).No segment of the market has demonstrated more overall growth than the coworking industry.Given the significant amount of venture capital thats being poured into the sector,this extraordinary growth rate shows no signs of slowing.The US flexible workspace revolution Source:JLL,HSBC With less than 5%of current US office inventory being controlled by independent,third-party flexible space providers(spanning all operator types,from traditional executive office suites to coworking to incubators)and given industry shifts,flexible workspace and shared amenity spaces these are projected(by JLL)to encompass approximately 30%of the office market by 2030.A-Z of flexible office space Demand:Take-up has generally found to be highest in the Tech sector,although Financial Services also ranks highly Users:Generation Z is fostering,embracing and propelling the flexible/coworking revolution ESG:Remote working has the potential to save organisations USD5bn and 3m tonnes of carbon emissions a year A significant amount of venture capital is being poured into the sector Equities Real Estate 10 July 2019 6 A.Accounting IFRS 16 Leases,or licenses under 12 months in duration can be excluded from IFRS16(effective as of 1 January 2019),which should be supportive of demand for the flexible/coworking office spaces.On this basis,there will not be a requirement for the occupier to capitalise the rental liability on its balance sheet.Also,IFRS 16 provides a new definition of a lease for accounting purposes that suggests that flexible workplaces may fall outside the scope of the regulation(which may prove advantageous as worldwide average flexible leasing terms continue to extend from c12 months as was the case in 2013,to closer to 30 months today(Colliers International).B.Business Models Increasingly hybrid business models are emerging Flexible workplace covers an increasingly wide spectrum from traditional serviced office operators to coworking spaces,including managed and virtual offices.As the sector continues to evolve,hybrid business models are emerging.This is in response to the demands of the customer and to improve profitability of the operation.Flexible Workplace Business Models Traditional Serviced Office Coworking Space Fully fitted furnished space,in Club Membership segregated offices-typically conventional office space Allocated Space Typically open-plan shared communal spaces Occupied on a licence Ad hoc and short-term space One fixed charge for the duration of the licence covering all operating Price per workspace-hourly/daily/monthly Costs usually on a cost per desk basis daily/monthly Shared space-not generally allocated Provision of events/mentoring/business support 10%-20%space allocated to social place Source:Cushman&Wakefield,HSBC C.Cost Flexible/coworking costs in Europe are some of the highest globally Understandably,flexible/coworking costs vary based on location,office size,set-up(i.e.,coworking vs dedicated offices)and utilisation(i.e.,yield management).Globally,although Hong Kong still ranks as the most expensive office market based on prime rents for conventional leases,several European cities have higher av