汇丰银行-中国-电信通讯行业-中国电信业：网络共享——这次可能会有所不同-2019.8.16-21页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)4GnetworksharingbetweenUnicomandTelecomdidn’tamounttomuch–5GmightbedifferentHighercapitalintensityof5Gmeanssharingmakesmoresense–expectpolicysupportfortwostrong5GnetworksDowngradeChinaTowerfromBuytoHoldonlowertenancyratioestimates;remainBuyChinaMobile/Unicom/Telecom5Gnetworksharing–thelogicofaUnicom/Telecommergerwithoutthecomplexity.ChinaUnicom’snetworksharingplan(seeour15Augustreport‘5Gco-build,co-sharestrategyofferspromise’)couldenabletwohigh-quality5GnetworksinChina.Itwouldaccelerate5Gspeedofdeploymentandpotentiallyimprovequality–bothimportanttopolicymakers.Anditwouldmaintainpricecompetition,withthesharingentitiesofferingcompletelyseparatepricesandservices.Thistimelooksdifferent–downgradeChinaTowertoHoldfromBuy.Unicomattemptedtoshare4GrolloutcostswithTelecom,butwithlittletangibleimpact.With5Gthepotentialinvestmentislarger,andthebenefitswouldbelessskewedtoUnicom.ThereislesspotentialforactivesharingwithChinaMobile,butanear-termroamingagreementispossible,asismoreactivesharinglateron.Weadjustourtenancyratioforecasttoreflectourviewthatsomeformofsharingislikely–wenowmodelamedium-termtenancyratioof1.55x(ourpriorestimateof1.72xbecomesourbullcase),anddowngradetoHold.MinorchangestoChinatelcoestimates–lower5Gcapexriskandimprovingearningsmomentum.LowerChinaTowerestimatesandvaluationresultsinslightdeclinesinourChinatelcoestimatesandtargetprices.OurbullcaseanalysisimpliessubstantialvaluationupsideinthescenariooffullnetworksharingbetweenUnicomandTelecom.ThisisanadditionalpositiveafterbetterdividendsupportfromChinaMobilelastweek.WelooktoChinaTelecomresultson22Augustforadditi...