汇丰银行-亚太地区-宏观策略-亚太利率：悄然降息-2019.2.14-35页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)ReceiveCNY5yrNDIRS:PositioningforfurthereasingINR5-2yrNDOISsteepener:ThecombinationofmonetaryeasingandfiscalslippageRecAUD-NZD5yr5yrIRSspread:WeakerAUgrowthoutlookThePeople’sBankofChinaeasedfirstandnow,theReserveBankofIndiahasfollowed.EventheReserveBankofAustraliahaschangedtack,withthegovernorsuggestingthatlowerratesmaybeappropriateifthelabourmarketsoftens.Indeed,Australia’seconomicdatahasbeenevidentlyweakerthanNewZealand.WerecommendreceivingAUD-NZD5yr5yrIRSspread,positioningforareversalofthespreadwideningseenoverthelasttwoyears.OurbullishviewonChinaratesremainsfirmandtheconsumerspendingdataduringtheLunarNewYearperiodonlyreaffirmedtheconviction.WestayreceivedCNY5yrNDIRSandlong10yrbonds,awaitingbolderpolicyaction.OutrightplaysinIndiaratesareunappealing,inourview,giventheopposingforcesofmonetaryeasingandfiscalslippage.PositioningforcurvesteepeningviaINR5-2yrNDOISsteepenerismoreprudent.Despitethecreepingdovishshiftintheregion,therearestillcentralbanks,suchastheBankofThailandandBankofKorea,holdingfirmtoaslightlyhawkishstance.Wearenotinclinedtopayratesasincomingdatahasbeenweaker,notstronger.Yet,weacknowledgethatitmaytakemoretoconvincethesecentralbankstostrikeamoreneutraltone.Fornow,weretaintheboxtradeofpositioningforcurvesteepeninginThailandrelativetoKorea,toexpresstheviewthatglobalmacroconcernstendtobereflectedmuchfasterinKorearatesthanThairates.Table1:HSBCmarketviewsCountry5-yearyield/rate2s/5scurveOverallconvictionChinaLowerFlatteningBullishHongKongHigherFlatteningMildlyBearishSingaporeLowerSteepeningMildlyBullishKoreaNeutralNeutralNeutralMalaysiaLowerNeutralMild...