汇丰银行-全球-投资策略-全球多资产策略：地板与天花板-2019.1.28-23页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comAsmarketsremaintornbetweenthethreatofslowergrowthandtheprospectoflessmonetarytightening......equitiesandsovereignbondsarelikelytoperformsimilarlyoverthecourseoftheyearYetweseefurtherupsideforriskassetsintheneartermMarketswillprobablyremaintornbetweenthethreatofslowerglobalgrowthandtheprospectoflessmonetarytightening(seeTorn:tensionsandtiming,7Jan2019).Indeedthisisourbasecaseinthethreescenarioswesetoutbelow–base,bullandbear.Webelievethiscouldultimatelybeayearwithlittledifferentiationbetweenequitiesand(sovereign)fixedincome,inparticularinrisk-adjustedterms(Theendofeasy,14Nov2018).Instead,therewillprobablybefrequentepisodeswheninvestorspriceextremescenarios–especiallywithregardtothetimingoftheendofthecycle.Soratherthanstabilisingalonga‘straightline’,marketsmightmovebetweenthebullishandbearishscenariosinthecomingmonths.AbullishcasecouldresultfromafairlyquickresolutiontotradetensionsbetweenChinaandtheUS.ThiswouldprobablyimprovesentimentwithriskassetssuchasglobalequitiesandcyclicalslikelypushinghigherwhileDMgovernmentbondsselloff.Butmarketimplicationsactuallymightnotbeasbullishastheyfirstseem.ConcernsaboutanoverlyhawkishFed,higherrealyields,andaflatterUSTyieldcurvewillprobablysetaceilingtoglobalequitiesrelativetofixedincome.Inourbearishcasetradetensionswouldlingeron.Globalgrowthwouldslowbymorethantheconsensuscurrentlyexpectsasuncertaintyaroundtradeweighsfurtheronsentiment.Yetafteraninitialknee-jerkoverreactionofriskassets,marketswouldprobablydiscountthepossibilityofarecessionagain,akintothepriceactioninDecember.Henceexpectationsofmonetaryeasing(‘Fedput’)wouldeventuallysetafloorandboostriskassets–withmarketsagainmovingbacktowardsourbasecase.Equitiesvssovereignfixedincome:basecaseSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Markit,RefinitivData...