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www.research.hsbc.comDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.PlayinterviewwithDougLippoldtandShanellaRajanayagamEconomicsGlobalAugust2019By:DouglasLippoldtandShanellaRajanayagamAsiantradeprospectsNavigatingturbulentseasAsianeconomiesremainvulnerabletoongoingUS-ChinatradetensionsandprolongedpolicyuncertaintyHowexposedaretheseeconomiestoprotectionistdevelopments?HowcanbusinessesmakethemostofongoingtradeliberalisationinAsiatoaccessnewopportunities?1Economics●GlobalAugust2019AsianRegionalandBilateralTradeDealsRegionalagreements(%ofworldGDPcovered)Source:HSBC;WorldBank;AsianDevelopmentBank.KeybilateralagreementsintheAsia-PacificregionSource:HSBC.CambodiaMyanmarThailandPhilippinesIndonesiaLaosSingaporeVietnamBruneiDarussalamMalaysia(3.5%)CanadaChileMexicoPeruJapanAustraliaNewZealand(12.9%)(4.0%)(32.1%)KoreaChinaIndiaBangladeshSriLankaAfghanistanBhutanMaldivesNepalPakistanListofregionaltradeagreementsAPTA=Asia-PacificTradeAgreementASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsCPTPP=ComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnershipRCEP=RegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipSAFTA=SouthAsianFreeTradeAgreementFiguresinparenthesesrepresentshareofworldGDPcoveredbymembersRCEPnegotiationsareon-goingGlobalGDP2018=USD85.8trnRatificationpending:EU-VietnamEU-SingaporeUndernegotiation:EU-IndonesiaEconomics●GlobalAugust20192ApositiveresponsetotraderiskintheAsia-PacificregionTheyear2019isprovingchallengingforAsian-Pacifictradeprospects.Thenascentrecoveryintradegrowthduring2017to2018hasbeenstuntedbysofterglobaldemandandthepolicydisruptionthatbeganin2018andhascarriedoninto2019.Afterhealthyannualexportgrowthof6.4%fortheregionin2018,HSBC'smacro-economicteamforecastsjust0.9%exportvolumegrowthin2019(HSBC,GlobalEconomicQuarterly,2July2019).ThisdecelerationwouldseeexportgrowthintheAsia-Pacificregionfallbelowtheforecastfortheworldwideaverage(1.8%).But,progressintrad...