汇丰银行-中美贸易紧张持续亚洲贸易自由化正酣（宏观）-2019.8-106页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Asset/SubcategoryAugust 2019Economics|GlobalAsian trade prospectsPlay interview withDoug Lippoldt and Shanella Rajanayagam EconomicsGlobalAugust 2019By:Douglas Lippoldt and Shanella RajanayagamAsian trade prospectsNavigating turbulent seasAsian economies remain vulnerable to ongoing US-China trade tensions and prolonged policy uncertainty How exposed are these economies to protectionist developments?How can businesses make the most of ongoing trade liberalisation in Asia to access new opportunities?1 Economics Global August 2019 Asian Regional and Bilateral Trade Deals Regional agreements(%of world GDP covered)Source:HSBC;World Bank;Asian Development Bank.Key bilateral agreements in the Asia-Pacific region Source:HSBC.CambodiaMyanmarThailandPhilippinesIndonesiaLaosSingaporeVietnamBrunei DarussalamMalaysia(3.5%)CanadaChileMexicoPeruJapanAustraliaNewZealand(12.9%)(4.0%)(32.1%)KoreaChinaIndiaBangladeshSri LankaAfghanistanBhutanMaldivesNepalPakistanList of regional trade agreementsAPTA=Asia-Pacific Trade AgreementASEAN=Association of Southeast Asian NationsCPTPP=Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific PartnershipRCEP=Regional Comprehensive Economic PartnershipSAFTA=South Asian Free Trade AgreementFigures in parentheses represent share of world GDP covered by membersRCEP negotiations are on-goingGlobal GDP 2018=USD85.8trnRatification pending:EU-Vietnam EU-Singapore Under negotiation:EU-Indonesia Economics Global August 2019 2 A positive response to trade risk in the Asia-Pacific region The year 2019 is proving challenging for Asian-Pacific trade prospects.The nascent recovery in trade growth during 2017 to 2018 has been stunted by softer global demand and the policy disruption that began in 2018 and has carried on into 2019.After healthy annual export growth of 6.4%for the region in 2018,HSBCs macro-economic team forecasts just 0.9%export volume growth in 2019(HSBC,Global Economic Quarterly,2 July 2019).This deceleration would see export growth in the Asia-Pacific region fall below the forecast for the worldwide average(1.8%).But,progress in trade reform could enable economies in the region to access untapped economic potential,drawing on:generally favourable demographic conditions in South and Southeast Asia;the ability to boost productivity via the application of currently available technology and improvements in regional innovation processes;and the availability of potential gains via reform of currently underperforming policy settings including with respect to trade.Given the headwinds,it is the time to act.A good place to start would be with the conclusion of the RCEP1 agreement later this year.Trade-led economic transformation in Asia The story of trade-led economic transformation in Asia is dramatic.During a time when global exports of goods and services grew from roughly US7trn to USD25trn(constant 2010 USD),the East Asia-Pacific region expanded its share of the pie from 20%to 29%(World Bank,WDI).The economic benefits have been tangible.Over the past 25 years,the share of the regions population living in extreme poverty2 has declined from 63%to 2.3%.In South Asia,where trade reform has been slower to take root,similar economic dynamism may now also be gaining traction.During 2014 to 2018,the growth rate of GDP in India exceeded that of China,though our forecasts for 2019 once again see China in the lead(6.5%for China versus 6.0%for India).3 1 RCEP=Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,a proposed 16 nation pan-Asian free trade agreement.2 Extreme poverty is defined as USD1.90 a day,in 2011 PPP constant dollars 3 See HSBC,Global Economic Quarterly Q3 2019,2 July 2019 and subsequent updates including HSBC,India RBI watch,31 July 2019.Executive Summary 3 Economics Global August 2019 Across this period,South Asia more than tripled its share in global trade,albeit from a low base(from 0.7%to 2.6%)and reduced extreme poverty from 47%to 16%(as of 2013).Further trade reforms now under consideration across Asia and the Pacific could expand the range of economic opportunity for businesses engaged in this region.This is particularly relevant in the emerging market economies that have substantial room to reap additional gains from reductions in persistent impediments to trade,including tariffs and non-tariff barriers(e.g.,regulatory impediments and customs administration).Given the weight of the Asia-Pacific region in the global economy(e.g.,it encompasses half of the worlds population),success in trade reform in the region can have a meaningful impact for businesses and consumers worldwide.Risk,reform and opportunity in Asia-Pacific Our review of trade policy has highlighted the policy turbulence affecting Asian-Pacific trade,a situation that looks set to continue with a risk of new protectionist actions on the horizon.This is in particular due to the shift in US trade policy and the ramping up of US-China trade tensions(see Box 1.2).But,other nations around the world have contributed as well,including countries in the Asia-Pacific region(see Table 1.1).Nonetheless,trade reform has advanced in the region along certain corridors thanks in part to the emergence of bilateral and regional free trade agreements like the Chinese and EU bilateral deals,ASEAN,and CPTPP4(a recent Pacific Basin trade deal,anchored by Japan with 10 other members,but not including the US or China).Regional integration could be set to take a big step forward if members can drive the proposed RCEP agreement to a conclusion later this year or next.(RCEP is a pan-Asian agreement covering ASEAN,Japan,Korea,China,India,Australia and New Zealand.)Such accords can help to lock in reform commitments,set an agenda for further trade reform,and provide a means of dispute resolution.They help reduce uncertainty and preserve the openness required in the current fast-paced trade environment for value chain production.This unlocks commercial opportunities and is conducive to trade and investment.DMs and maturing EMs in the Asia Pacific region are well positioned to benefit mutually from such an increasingly open economic environment.Asian value chains are evolving The rise of production along value chains and Chinas rise as a manufacturing hub over the past two decades have led to a shift eastward in trade patterns.As a result,regional trade in Asia has intensified and production chains have become highly integrated.But Asian supply chains are evolving.Using a unique dataset from the OECD,we find that Asian economies are increasingly using locally produced inputs to manufacture exported goods,rather than sourcing inputs from abroad.This evolution is most noticeable in China,where its share of domestic content in exports increased from 74%in 2005 to 83%in 2016.China now plays a significant role in supplying inputs and outsourcing manufacturing to other countries within the region.Asian value chains vary by sector,for example,regional electronics supply chains are highly pervasive owing to the use of small components that are easily transportable.The motor vehicles sector is more concentrated in terms of countries(e.g.China,Japan,India)and companies that lead world production.The textiles and clothing industry is a key source of export growth for many emerging Asian economies(e.g.Bangladesh and Vietnam)given their low-cost advantage,while intra-regional investment is a key driver of integration in ASEANs agri-food industry.How exposed are Asian economies to US-China trade tensions?Given the highly integrated nature of Asian supply chains,ongoing US-China trade tensions are affecting other economies in the region.This presents both risks and opportunities for businesses in Asia.The overall impact will depend on how exposed these markets are to the 4 CPTPP=the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership,a free trade agreement among 11 Pacific Basin countries.Economics Global August 2019 4 US and Chinese economies.According to our analysis,Japan,Korea,Thailand and India are most exposed to the US(with a direct exposure rate of over 35%,relative to their total exports to the US).Korea,Hong Kong,India,Vietnam and Thailand are most exposed to China.These economies also remain vulnerable to US protectionism via their role in Chinese supply chains.If trade tensions persist,there could be opportunities for Asian economies to boost exports of electronics,toys and furniture to the US,at the expense of Chinese import market share.Equally,there could be opportunities for these economies to increase exports of electronics components to China.But this will depend on how substitutable US and Chinese products are with goods from elsewhere.Asian supply chains have already started to rejig as emerging economies(e.g.Vietnam,Cambodia,India)are providing lower-cost alternatives for manufacturing to China.Ongoing US-China trade tensions may simply accelerate this shift.However,there is also a risk that US trade policy action could target these other suppliers directly,as well.Measures from the US trade policy toolkit(Box 1.1)have been deployed at times not just against China,but also against other Asian nations with large US trade surpluses such as Japan and Korea.The US President has also recently mentioned Vietnams trade surplus as a policy concern.The structure of the analysis In this review of leading Asian trading nations,we consider four dimensions of their situation with respect to international commerce.The report opens with a survey of the trade policy landscape facing the regions economies.It continues with an assessment of Asian value chain developments over the long run for a sample of countries and sectors of particular interest for trade.We then look at the exposure of Asian trade corridors to new opportunities and potential disruption associated with trade policy changes.The final section considers potential scenarios for growth going forward over the medium to long term.5 Economics Global August 2019 Executive Summary 2 A positive response to trade risk in the Asia-Pacific region 2 1.Asian trade matures 6 Turbulent times continue 6 Uncertain and potentially dangerous times for trade 16 Lets not underestimate the gains from globalisation 19 Further US actions could target China,Japan and others 22 Asian nations act 23 Pulling the strands together 28 Annex 1:Infrastructure development in Asia 29 2.Sector supply chains 33 Regional value chains 33 Where does Asian value-added end up?37 Electronics 43 Motor vehicles 53 Textiles and apparel 59 Agri-food 69 3.Exposure to trade tensions 78 Impact of trade uncertainty 78 Exposure to US-China trade tensions 79 Opportunities from the US-China tariff dispute 86 Will Asian supply chains reconfigure?90 4.Reinforcing Asian trade 92 A way forward 92 Disclosure appendix 102 Disclaimer 104 Contents Economics Global August 2019 6 Turbulent times continue International trade in Asia is facing a turbulent environment,with opportunities and impediments emerging in sometimes surprising forms.New high-standards trade deals are liberalising trade along previously constrained corridors within the region and with more distant partners(see inside cover)(HSBC,New Trade Deals Deliver,16 May 2019;HSBC,Boosting trade,4 July 2019).The CPTPP accord,for example,is liberalising EM-DM mutual market access across much of the Pacific Basin,albeit without the participation of the US and China.5 Another example is the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement(EPA),which is leading to growth in agricultural,auto and pharmaceutical trade on that corridor,among other developments.And,trade is changing in its composition and nature,posing a challenge to Asian business.This is the case with respect to services trade,for example,which is evolving thanks to e-commerce and digital trade(HSBC,Taxing digital trade,19 June 2019).Services and goods trade are demonstrating their complementarity thanks to new forms of production linked to industrial 3D printing and increasing customisation(HSBC,Custom-made,23 April 2019).Agricultural trade,not to be left out,is also evolving in terms of new products(e.g.,lab-grown meat)and production techniques(e.g.,blockchain traceability and precision farming)(HSBC,Future of food trade,18 January 2019).Trade within Asia is intensifying(HSBC,South-South trade,17 February 2019)such that a majority of trade for Asian EMs is now intra-regional.Trade in intermediate products remains strong in the region,even as local consumption of regional final goods is rising.Good fundamentals in some emerging markets e.g.,ASEAN6 are fuelled by favourable demographics,opportunities for gains from technological catch-up,and advantageous resource endowments(HSBC,The world in 2030,25 September 2018).This is contributing to economic growth,improved productivity,and expansion of the middle class.As local suppliers mature in their capabilities(discussed in the next section),the scale of the regional market is now such that there is a measure of momentum and sustainability in the regional economy even though 5 CPTPP,the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership,entered into force for 6 countries on 30 December 2018(Canada,Mexico,Japan,Australia,New Zealand and Singapore)and for Vietnam on 14 January 2019.Ratification is pending for:Peru,Chile,Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia.China and the United States are not members.6 ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations comprising Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,Laos,Malaysia,Myanmar,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand and Vietnam.1.Asian trade matures The policy turbulence currently affecting Asian-Pacific trade looks set to continue,with a risk of more protectionism on the horizon But,trade reform is still advancing in the region and with trade partners like the EU,thanks to bilateral&regional free trade accords Increased openness is helping EMs in Asia achieve scale;access technologies;overcome US&UK policy shifts and WTO weakness International trade in Asia is facing a turbulent environment A majority of trade for Asian EMs is now intra-regional 7 Economics Global August 2019 North America and Europe continue to play very significant roles as export markets and suppliers for critical technology products and capital goods(e.g.,aircraft,scientific instruments,specialised machine tools).But,impediments to trade are emerging.The United States has led the charge in this regard,shifting its trade policy towards one based on economic nationalism.The opening salvo came very early in the tenure of the current administration,with the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement in January 2017(HSBC,What next after TPP?,26 January 2017).But,while that action resulted in the loss of some much-anticipated future trade liberalisation,the subsequent imposition of new tar