汇丰银行-中国-信贷策略-中国产业：把小麦从谷壳中分离-2019.7.5-33页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Afterapainful2018highlightedbydefaultsandsharppricecorrections,thesectorhassplitintodifferentlayersofqualityAsvalueemerges,reducedsupplyisanotherreasontorevisitthesector,particularlyintheyieldrangeof7-9%BullishonHYoil,neutralonHYconsumer;buytradingcallonCARINC’22NavigatingtheminefieldTomany,itmightbeaneasycalltounderweightChinahigh-yield(HY)industrialsonasectorbasis,citingthehighdefaultrate,weakfinancingcapabilityversuspropertycounterparts,anddepressedmarginsstemmingfromfiercecompetition.Theweaktradingliquidityoftenmakesthingsworse–it’snotuncommontoseealargeintradayswingevenondayswithlimitedrelevantnews.However,it’sunfairtojudgeeveryissueronthisbasis.Somenamesinthisreportdisplayqualitiestraditionallyfavouredbyfixedincomeinvestors,suchasfastgrowth(Health&Happiness[H&H]),cleardeleveragingefforts(WestChinaCement),valuablefixedassets(GoldenEagle),andindustryleadership(CarInc).Wethinksomeofthesequalitiesareunderappreciatedasaresultofthedefaultsinthesector.Thereducedsupplyisanotherreasontorevisitthesectorasvalueemerges,whichcanbeagoodreasontodiversifyawayfromHYpropertygiventherecentnoiseinthatsector.SortingthewheatfromthechaffWedefineChinaHYindustrialsasallChinaHYissuersapartfrompropertydevelopers,localgovernmentfinancingvehicles(LGFVs),andMacaugamingoperators.Therearearound70HYindustrialissuersinthemarketwithcUSD34.5bninbondsoutstanding–lessthanathirdofthesizeofChinaHYpropertymarket.Duetothematerialheterogeneityacrossmanyoftheindustrialsub-sectors,wetakeabottom-upapproachonasub-sectoralandnamebasisratherthanatop-downapproachontheentireindustrialsector.Inthisreport,wefocuso...