汇丰银行-中国-石油与天然气行业-中国石油与天然气：中国的大企业仍然很有吸引力-2019.1.12-27页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Oilmarketconditionsrapidlychangedfromtighttoloosein4Q18duetoaconfluenceoffactorsThesharpfallinoilpriceshurt2018estimatesandhasimportantconsequencesforourmodellingWhilewelowerourestimates,ournewtargetpricesimplyupsideafterthecorrectioninsharepricesOn11January2019,weloweredourBrentassumptioninOilin2019,Rangebound:OPECcutmeetsUSshaleglut.WenowreduceourforecastsforChinaOil&Gasmajorsafterincorporatingournewpricedeck.Our2019eBrentassumptionofUSD64/breflectsourviewofaslowrecoveryinpricesfromUSD59/b1Q19e.OurBrentpriceassumptionsfor2019/20/21eareUS64/70/70/b,comparedtoUSD80/85/75/bpreviously.OurnewBrentassumptionsareabout10%orUSD7/bbelowconsensusfor2019e;andaboutevenwithconsensusfor2020e.Ourpriceprogressiontakesintoaccounttwomainfactors:1)seasonalweaknessindemandinthefirstquarteroftheyear,and2)IMO2020-relatedfactorsstartingtoinfluencemarketbehaviourinthesecondhalf.Estimatechanges.AsidefromincorporatingourlatestBrentassumptions,wealsoinputHSBCFXstrategists’latestUSD-RMBforecasts.Asaresult,weadjustournetincomeforecastsover2018e/19e/20e/21easfollows:CNOOC-10%/-35%/-25%/-9%;PetroChina-2%/-28%/-22%/-8%;Sinopec1%/-12%/-9%/-5%.Ourvaluationmethodologyislargelyunchanged–forPetroChinaandSinopecweuselowerreturn-adjusted2019ePBtargetmultiplesdrivenbythesubduedROE’sinRMBterms:PetroChina(0.91xvs1.07xpreviously)andSinopec(1.09xvs1.16xpreviously);forCNOOCwetakeanaverageof2019eand2020eBVPSmultipliedbyPBmultiplesof1.50xand1.38x,respectively,vsusingonlyour2019emultipleof1.71xpreviously,helpingustocaptureproductiongrowthfromGuyana,whichtargetsfirstoilinMarch2020.Despitethesharpfallinoilpr...