汇丰银行-中国-交通运输业-中国基础设施建设：只是获得所有投资回报的门票-2019.6-63页 (2).pdfVIP免费

www.research.hsbc.comDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.PlayinterviewwithLesleyLiuPlayChinarailexplainerBy:LesleyLiuJune2019Road&RailEquitiesChinaInfrastructureJusttheticketforareturnonallthatinvestmentChina’shugehigh-speedrailnetworkischanginghowpeopletravel,boostingpassengervolumesandincreasingreturnonassetsManybelieveChinahasoverbuiltitsrailwayinfrastructure.Wedisagree.TheemphasisisonmovingfromscaletoefficiencyChinatransportoperatorsprovideanattractivedividendyieldinavolatilemarket.OurBuyideasare:DaqinRailway,GuangshenRailway,ZhejiangExpressway,andShenzhenExpresswaySPOTLIGHT1Equities●Road&RailJune2019ThekeymessagesHigh-speedrailischangingthewaypeopleinChinatravel.Thecomfort,convenience,competitivepricing,andpunctualityoftheworld’slargesthigh-speedrail(HSR)networkisreflectedinthegrowthinoverallrailwaypassengervolumes.Railwaypassengervolumesdoubledoverthepastdecade,mainlythankstothepopularityofHSR,andwebelievetheycouldalmostdoubleagainto5.5bnpassengerjourneysby2022e.However,thenumberofannualrailtripsperpersonremainsfarbelowmanyothercountries,whichsuggeststhatthisisonlythestartofalong-termgrowthstory.Butthere’smoretothisthanjustplainnumbers.Governmentpolicywillsupportinvestmentintherailnetwork,shiftinghugeamountsoffreightfromroadtorail,whichinturnwillfreeupexpresswaysformorepassengervehiclesandhelpmeetthecountry’scleanairtargets.Morerailwayreformswillalsohelpincreasethepaceofassetinjections.Allthiswillincreasereturnonassets,whichisgoodnewsforChina’stransportoperators.Inthisreportwe:LookatthechangesinhowpeopletravelandtrackthegrowthoftheHSRnetwork.In2017HSRaccountedformorethanhalfofrailpassengertrafficforthefirsttime.Explainwhytheriskofinfrastructureoverbuildislow,giventhesizeofthecountryandthepopulation.Highlighttheintegrationofnewregionalraillineswithtrunkroutesandroadandairnetworks.Analysehowincreasedpassengervolumesareboostingthere...