汇丰银行-中国-股票策略-A股投资地图：牛市正在放缓但仍有一些上行空间-2019.4.4-36页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedViewHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.comEquityResearchReportHSBCChinaConference201915-17May,ShenzhenRegisternowTherallystillhaslegsbutcautionneededastherisksarealsorisingWelowerourChinaCOEto9%(from10%):risk-freerateto2.5%(from3.0%)andequityriskpremiumto6.5%(from7%)Increaseourend-2019eindextargets,implyingupsideof10-13%;prefertheconsumerstaplesandindustrialssectorsandincreaseourweightingonrealestatetoneutralStillupside,butcautionneeded.TheA-sharemarkethasbeenthebest-performingequitymarketgloballyin2019,withitsmajorindicesupbetween30%and42%y-t-dinUSDterms.Enteringtheearningsseason,A-shareearningsgrowthforecastsfor2018,2019and2020havebeenreviseddown2pptsinthelastmonth,and3-5pptsinthelastthreemonths.Soit’sfairtosaythecurrentstageoftherallyisnotbeingdrivenbyanimprovementinfundamentals,giventhesoftereconomicgrowth.However,wethinkthereisstillmoreupsideduetogreaterpolicysupport,increasedparticipationbyforeigninvestorsfollowingMSCI’sdecisiontoquadrupletheA-shareweightinginitsglobalbenchmarksandtheenthusiasmofdomesticretailinvestors.Inparticular,theprogressoftheScienceandTechnologyInnovationBoardhasbeenanupsidesurprise.Raise2019eindextargets.Weraiseourend-2019eindextargets:SHCOMP3,500(from3,100),CSI3004,500(from3,800),andSZComponent11,500(from9,500),implyingupsideof10-13%fromthecurrentlevel.Ourindexrevisionsaredrivenbytwofactors,onepositiveandtheothernegative.Themajorpositivedriverisalowercostofequity(COE),discussedbelow;themajornegativeisthedownwardearningsrevisions.Onasectorbasis,weraiserealestatetoneutralgiveninexpensivevaluationandimprovedfinancingconditions,lowerhealthcareandutilitiestoneutralgivenhighervaluations,stayoverweightconsumerstaplesandindustrials,underweightmaterialsandconsumerdiscretionary,andremainneutralonothersectors.Wealsooffer11bottom-u...