汇丰银行-美股-电信行业-美国电信业：2019年导航-2019.1.24-27页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCSecurities(USA)IncViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comFor2019,weexpectmorefragmentationincontent/payTV,steadymobileandanendtoM&AapprovaloverhangsWeadvocatethatinvestorschoosesturdycarriers:asset-mix,businessmomentum,RoICs,leverageandshareholderremunerationpotentialarekeytoourstockpreferencesDISHisourleastpreferredstockforwhichwecutourTPtoUSD24fromUSD38anddowngradetoReduce;weprefertonavigate2019throughVerizon,TMUS,AT&TandComcastNavigate2019watersonsturdycarriers2018,aswehadoutlinedinournoteWelcometotheICE2ageof27March2018,wasdominatedbybigM&Amovesinthesector–drivenbythedesireorneedtoaddscale.WhileoperatorslikeVerizonremainedsingularlyfocusedontheirexistingbusiness,operatorslikeComcastexpandedtheirportfolios.Thelatter,inourview,althoughpositivefromalong-termperspective,capsshareholderremunerationintheshortterm.For2019,weexpecttoseemorefragmentationinthecontent/pay-TVbusinessasmoreplayers(likeApple,Disney,Comcast,Viacom)aresettoentertheOTTcontentmarket.InpayTV,weexpectthebasetoshrinkfurther;weexpectatotalofc2.4mpay-TVnetsubscriberlosses(vs3.1min2018e)forthestocksunderourcoverage.Inmobile,wethinkmarginscouldseeupwardmovementdrivenbya)lowerspendingonhandsetpromotionsin1H2019andb)thecostreductionstepsundertakenbycompanies(likeVerizon).WithregardtoM&A,whiletheTMUS/Sprintcombinationhasyettoreceivetheregulatorygreenlight,webelievethereisreasonableprobabilityofthedealgoingthrough.TMUSexpectsthetransactiontoclosein1H2019;however,withthepartialUSgovernmentshutdownineffect,therecouldbedelaysinregulatoryreview.WemayseeanendtotheobstaclesAT&ThasencounteredinrelationtotheTimeWarner(TWX)acquisition.Apositiveoutcomeforbothtransactionswouldlikelyremoveuncertaintyandpotentiallyhelpvaluations.Inthisreport,wedetailourstockviewsandourpicksfor2019.WedowngradeDishtoReduce(fromHold)witha...