汇丰银行-2019Q2全球经济增长放缓-2019.3-118页.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Play video withJanet HenryEconomicsGlobalQ2 2019By:Janet Henry and James PomeroyGlobal EconomicsPoised for slower growthFinancial markets have revived on the back of a global central bank“pivot”but that has been triggered by slower growth,lower inflationand a fear that things could get worse 1 Economics Global Q2 2019 The central bank pivot Global growth is still slowing but equity markets have been rising,in some cases more than reversing the dramatic equity market declines of late 2018.Expectations that a US-China trade deal is imminent and more importantly the US Federal Reserve is on hold in 2019,have been sufficient to revive risk appetite and the hunt for yield.Moreover,the now extremely“patient”Fed has been accompanied by a more general pivot by central banks globally:the ECB has delayed the likely timing of its first rate rise while emerging markets,most of which were on a tightening path in 2018,now look set for the next move to be downwards.India has already taken the first step.Despite the market rally,the fact is the“pivot”has been a response to the slower growth and lower-than-expected inflation at a time of high uncertainty:regarding trade tensions,Brexit and,should the current slowdown evolve into something worse,concerns about the policy options available to fight the next downswing.The arguments in favour of patience are clear-cut.If inflation surprises on the upside,central banks know they can raise rates.If it surprises on the downside,they face much bigger challenges.Cloudy outlook The growth outlook has become increasingly cloudy.The slowdown of the past year has not been quite as synchronised as the upswing that preceded it,either across sectors or geographies.Industry has slowed much more dramatically than services,even pushing some parts of Europe and Latin America into or close to recession.US data held up much better,helped along by the hefty fiscal stimulus.Although there were indications that some of the one-off country-specific factors dragging down industrial production had run their course,the weakness is now increasingly widespread.Industrial production growth in China is slowing,having been stable in 2018 despite other areas of weakness in the economy.Moreover,US activity,particularly consumer and federal spending,has been disrupted by the government shutdown.By mid-2019 we still expect some revival in US demand as the hit from the government shutdown in Q1 unwinds,and the recent signs of bottoming out in the Chinas credit cycle suggests the slowdown in China activity should abate.We do not anticipate a rapid upturn in world trade or global growth though.Cycles,chips and automobiles Some of the sector-specific stories which played a major role in dragging down global production in the second half of 2018 threaten to endure.We look in particular at the outlook for the auto sector and the electronics cycle,which together account for about 35%of manufacturing production in a country like Korea.Vehicles alone account for 20%of manufacturing production in Germany and 16%in Japan.As far as new car demand is concerned,much of the weakness reflects structural medium-term trends,such as increasingly pressing environmental concerns and policies.But others are more recent.In China,the tax rebates on car purchases which helped to boost car sales in 2015-17 Executive Summary A revival in risk appetite Cars&semiconductors feeling brunt of industrial downturn Economics Global Q2 2019 2 came to a halt in 2018 and look unlikely to be reinstated.Moreover we still cant rule out the implementation of US tariffs on vehicle imports,which would weigh heavily on trade in the sector.For the electronics cycle we may have seen the worst of the downturn,to which the apparent lack of enthusiasm for the latest round of smartphone upgrades contributed.Other electronics categories tend to be more stable.However,no meaningful upturn should be anticipated until much later in 2019 or 2020 when the new 5G smartphones are rolled out,although geopolitical factors could disrupt the timing.Moreover,the countries which stand to benefit most from the next upturn in the global electronics cycle may instead lose out if a concluded US-China trade deal requires China to source a larger share of its semiconductor imports from the US.The consumer comeback Looking more broadly at the structure of global demand,even if confirmation of a US-China trade deal in the near term is accompanied by a bounce in business confidence,it is unlikely that investment intentions and capital spending will revive as quickly as financial markets have,particularly in Europe given the ongoing Brexit-related turmoil and unease that the EU could be the next region to face an escalation of trade tensions with the US.The outlook for consumer spending is firmer.Employment growth is still robust in developed markets and real wage growth should be accelerating at the fastest rate since 2016.Together with fiscal support in a range of advanced and emerging economies,this will all help to underpin disposable income growth.So,barring any unforeseen rise in household savings rates,consumer spending should hold up well.It cannot be expected to drive a quick upturn in world trade though,given the mix of consumer spending still seems to be moving away from expenditure on goods to spending on services.A bigger revival would depend on an acceleration in investment spending and we do not expect that to happen anytime soon.Higher wages but lower inflation Headline inflation and inflation expectations have fallen markedly across the globe since mid-2018,initially triggered by a sharp fall back in the oil price.The slowdown in global growth also seems to be keeping a lid on core inflation in many emerging economies as well as the likes of the US and Europe,where higher wage growth has yet to show any meaningful signs of feeding through to core CPI.Hence,the ongoing puzzle surrounding wages,productivity,profit margins and inflation remains unresolved.Despite their obvious concerns about the slowdown in growth,the Fed and other central banks are not about to take their eyes off the inflation risks.In developed economies there are finally some signs that the wage Phillips curve may be re-asserting itself(even if the inflation Phillips curve hasnt),albeit only very modestly.There are also some signs that US trade tariffs may be having an impact on certain elements of US consumer and producer prices.Goods price inflation in the US has just turned positive for the first time since 2012.Fed patience,but what about markets?Since Chairman Powell first used the word“patient”to describe the FOMCs approach to monetary policy on 4 January,it has been clearer than ever that the Fed is not on a“pre-set”course.Not only is the real Fed Funds rate now within the range that most FOMC members consider to be“neutral”,global growth risks are still skewed to the downside and inflation expectations remain extremely muted on a range of measures.Some FOMC members are also Fiscal stimulus for consumers Wage,productivity,inflation&profits puzzle 3 Economics Global Q2 2019 of the view that that,having undershot their inflation mandates for so long,they can justify overshooting it for a while.These factors all mean the FOMC has time on its side before having to consider whether to raise rates again and can afford to be“data-dependent”.We now believe that the Fed tightening cycle has finished and maintain our view of rate cuts in 2020.However,if inflation expectations move higher in H2 2019,perhaps helped along by the recent rise in the oil price(against a backdrop where growth elsewhere in the global economy has stabilised)and higher wage growth,the market could well start to price in an interest rate rise.If so,falling equity markets,wider spreads or even a stronger dollar could be enough to ensure that a rate rise is never actually delivered:what former Bank of England governor,Mervyn King,described as the“Maradona”effect.But once again this could have more to do with how it impacts on the rest of the world,particularly in EM.Currently though,the slowdown in global growth and inflation and a“patient”Fed mean that many emerging economies that had previously been moving with the Fed are relishing the new-found breathing space.Others may soon follow Indias lead in cutting rates.Where does all of this leave our forecasts?Lower than last quarter,in large part because of a further sizeable downward revision to our European forecasts for 2019.Our global GDP growth forecast has fallen by another 0.2ppt point to 2.4%,while our 2020 forecast stays at 2.4%.The downward revision to our 2019 global inflation forecast to 2.7%from 3%is bigger,much of it reflecting the drop which has already happened,thanks to oil and,in some cases,food.Key forecasts%_GDP_ _Inflation_ _2018_ _2019f_ _2020f_ _2018_ _2019f_ _2020f_ World 2.9(2.9)2.4(2.6)2.4(2.4)2.9(2.9)2.7(3.0)2.8(2.9)Developed 2.1(2.2)1.6(1.8)1.4(1.4)2.0(2.0)1.4(1.6)1.8(1.9)Emerging 4.5(4.6)4.3(4.4)4.6(4.7)3.6(3.6)3.6(4.0)3.6(3.6)US 2.9(2.9)2.4(2.5)1.8(1.8)2.4(2.4)1.7(1.7)2.1(2.1)China 6.6(6.6)6.6(6.6)6.5(6.5)2.1(2.1)1.8(2.1)2.0(2.0)Japan 0.8(0.8)0.9(0.9)-0.2(-0.2)1.0(1.0)0.6(0.9)1.1(1.1)India*7.0(7.2)7.2(7.3)7.3(7.4)3.4(3.7)3.5(4.6)4.0(4.3)Eurozone 1.8(1.9)1.0(1.4)1.3(1.3)1.8(1.8)1.2(1.4)1.5(1.8)UK 1.4(1.3)1.2(1.6)1.4(1.6)2.5(2.5)1.7(1.8)1.9(1.8)Russia 2.3(1.8)1.3(1.5)1.9(2.0)2.9(2.8)5.0(5.1)4.1(4.1)Brazil 1.1(1.5)2.6(2.9)3.0(3.0)3.7(3.7)3.8(4.4)4.2(4.4)Note:*India data in fiscal year(2019=April 2019 to March 2020)GDP aggregates use chain nominal GDP(USD)weights and Inflation aggregates calculated using GDP PPP(USD)weights Parenthesis show forecasts published in the Global Economics Quarterly Q1 2019 Source:HSBC forecasts Maradona may return Economics Global Q2 2019 4 Key forecasts 5 No pre-set course 6 Markets are up 6 but global growth is still heading down 7 The industrial downturn 9 Doesnt anyone want cars anymore?12 Electronics:waiting for 5G 15 US-China trade truce to change the market?19 The consumer comeback 21 Inflation 24 Monetary policy 25 Global economic forecasts 29 North America 46 US 46 Canada 48 Asia Pacific 50 China 50 Japan 52 India 54 Australia 56 South Korea 58 Indonesia 60 Taiwan 62 Thailand 64 Malaysia 66 Singapore 68 Hong Kong 70 Philippines 72 New Zealand 74 Eurozone 76 Eurozone 76 Germany 78 France 80 Italy 82 Spain 84 Other Western Europe 86 UK 86 Switzerland 88 Sweden 90 Norway 92 CEEMEA 94 Poland 94 Russia 96 Turkey 98 Saudi Arabia 100 South Africa 102 Latin America 104 Brazil 104 Mexico 106 Argentina 108 Colombia 110 Chile 112 Disclosure appendix 114 Disclaimer 116 Contents 5 Economics Global Q2 2019 Key forecasts _ GDP _ _ Inflation _ 2018 2019f 2020f 2018 2019f 2020f World(nominal GDP weights)2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.8 Developed 2.1 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.8 Emerging 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 North America 2.8 2.3 1.8 2.4 1.7 2.1 US 2.9 2.4 1.8 2.4 1.7 2.1 Canada 2.1 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.7 Asia-Pacific 4.1 4.2 3.9 2.2 2.0 2.4 Asia Big Three 4.4 4.5 4.2 2.3 2.1 2.4 China 6.6 6.6 6.5 2.1 1.8 2.0 Japan 0.8 0.9-0.2 1.0 0.6 1.1 India*7.0 7.2 7.3 3.4 3.5 4.0 Asia ex Big Three 3.4 3.1 3.1 1.9 1.6 2.0 Australia 2.8 2.5 2.8 1.9 2.0 2.4 South Korea 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.2 2.0 Indonesia 5.2 5.0 5.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 Taiwan 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.3 1.0 Thailand 4.1 3.5 3.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 Malaysia 4.7 4.5 4.3 1.0 1.3 2.3 Singapore 3.2 2.3 2.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 Hong Kong 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 Philippines 6.2 6.0 6.4 5.2 3.4 3.4 New Zealand 2.8 2.8 2.6 1.6 1.7 2.2 Western Europe 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.6 Eurozone 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.5 Germany 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.5 France 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.6 Italy 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.4 Spain 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.7 Other Western Europe 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.3 1.6 1.7 UK 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.9 Switzerland 2.5 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 Sweden 2.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 Norway*2.5 1.7 1.7 2.8 1.9 1.6 CEEMEA 2.5 1.0 2.2 6.5 7.0 7.2 Russia 2.3 1.3 1.9 2.9 5.0 4.1 Turkey 2.6-1.8 1.5 16.2 18.4 17.1 Saudi Arabia 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.5 0.0 2.3 Poland 5.1 4.1 4.2 1.6 1.4 2.8 South Africa 0.8 1.1 1.4 4.6 4.5 5.6 Latin America 1.4 1.8 2.5 7.2 8.0 6.2 Brazil 1.1 2.6 3.0 3.7 3.8 4.2 Mexico 2.0 1.5 1.8 4.9 4.0 3.8 Argentina-2.6-1.5 2.5 34.3 46.0 27.4 Colombia 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.6 Chile 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 Source:HSBC estimates.Note:*India data in fiscal year(2018=April 2018 to March 2019).*Mainland.GDP aggregates use chain nominal GDP(USD)weights and Inflation aggregates calculated using GDP PPP(USD)weights.Economics Global Q2 2019 6 Markets are up From their late December lows,global financial markets in 2019 have rebounded,in many cases just as sharply as they fell in the final months of 2018.Market cheer has been given a helping hand by the growing expectation that a US-China trade deal is nigh,but the main factor driving the post-Christmas reversal has been the central bank pivot underway around the world.Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell first used the word“patient”to describe the FOMCs approach to monetary policy on January 4,markets have been increasingly convinced that not only would the Fed Funds rate be on hold in the first half of 2019(which the FOMCs March dot plot of rate projections now concurs with)but that the next move in rates would actually be down(chart 1).1.Fed rate expectations have fallen back sharply 2.and we expect looser policy in many economies Source:Refinitiv Datastream.Note:26 December was the bottom of the equity market fall,1 September used as indicative date prior to market volatility.Source:HSBC estimates.Note:Change since our Global Economics Quarterly Q4 2018.US rate is the midpoint of the Fed Funds target range.Together with an ECB extending its forward guidance on interest rates further into the future and emerging market central banks(with the exception of Argentina)no longer thinking about tightening,this has been sufficient to revive risk appetite and the hunt for yield which had only briefly started to wane in late 2018.The US S&P500 is already back at its mid-October levels while the MSCI emerging markets equity index is at the highest level since the start of August.Our own expectations have shifted less dramatically than markets,but we have also scaled 2.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.8Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20Sep-20%21 Mar 201926 Dec 20181 Sept 2018Market interest rate expectations-US Fed6.005.501.504.254.253.502.6251.750.00-0.401.38-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.0-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.0IndiaIndonesiaAustraliaPhilippinesColombiaChileUSNew ZealandSwedenECB(depo)TaiwanpptspptsChange in HSBC end-19 policy rate forecast(since Sep 18)Text shows latest end-2019 forecast No pre-set course Financial markets have revived on the back of a global central bank“pivot”but that has been triggered by slower growth,lower inflation and a fear o