RespondingtotheMyanmarCoupCrisisGroupAsiaBriefingN°166Yangon/Bangkok/Brussels,16February2021What’snew?TheMyanmarmilitary’s1Februarycoupd’étatbroughtasuddenhalttothecountry’sdemocratictransitionandshoweddisdainforthewillofthepeople,overwhelminglyexpressedintheNovember202oelectionswhichreturnedtheNationalLeagueforDemocracygovernmentinalandslide.Whydoesitmatter?Thecouphasarrestedadecadeofpoliticalandeconomicliberalisation.IthaspromptedalmostuniversaloutragefromMyanmar’speople,whohavetakentostreetsacrossthecountrytodemanditsreversal.Themilitaryisunlikelytobackdown,andtheriskofdeadlyviolenceagainstprotestersishigh.Whatshouldbedone?Foreigngovernmentsmustunanimouslycondemnthecoup.Nonetheless,allshouldberealisticaboutthelimitsofinternationalleverageoverthegenerals.Thoseresponsibleforthecoupshouldbesanctionedbutthepopu-lationandeconomyshouldbeprotectedfromharm.AsianandWesternpowersshouldworktogethertodeterviolence.I.OverviewTheMyanmarmilitarytooktheworldbysurpriseon1February,stagingacoupd’étatthatabruptlycurtailedthecountry’sdemocratictransitionandhassparkedmassproteststhatcouldleadtodeadlyviolence.Thegeneralssaytheirmoveiscon-stitutional,allegingfraudinNovember2020electionsthatsawtheNationalLeagueforDemocracy(NLD)defeatthemilitary-backedparty.Theseclaimslacksubstantia-tion.ThedetentionofcivilianleaderAungSanSuuKyi,aswellasheranointedpres-ident,WinMyint,hasgeneratedimmensepopularanger.Foreigngovernmentsarenowgrapplingwithhowtorespond.Some(largelyWestern)governmentsthreatensanctionstopunishdemocraticbacksliding;theU.S.hasalreadyimposedsomere-strictions.Asianpowersthathaveexpressedconcernfocusontheriskofinstability.GovernmentsthatimposesanctionsshouldadoptmeasuresthattargetcoupleadersandinsulateMyanmar’speopleandbroadereconomyfromtheireffects.Regionalgovernmentsshouldconsidersuchstepstoprotectregionalstability.Allexternalactorsshouldcooperatetopreventviolence.Complicatingeffortsbyforeigngovernmentstoreactisadynamicsituationontheground.Thenewregimehastriedtotampdo...
